ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NJWxHurricane]

well no fun I definitely wont make landfall time if it keeps this up .. oh well.

Think the port st joe area spared a bullet?

[tallywx]

This latest NE wobble/movement was an important one for Tallahassee.

[NJWxHurricane]

This latest NE wobble/movement was an important one for Tallahassee.

I'm confused, is this bad or good?

[Aric Dunn]

center now becoming visible on radar..

[BRweather]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 01/17:02:40Z
B. 27 deg 44 min N
085 deg 34 min W
C. 850 mb 1348 m
D. 55 kt
E. 047 deg 55 nm
F. 148 deg 58 kt
G. 046 deg 49 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 17 C / 1526 m
J. 20 C / 1518 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 1309A HERMINE OB 06

[otterlyspicey]

Would I be correct in assuming a 4ish hour early arrival compared to previous forecast if the forward speed up continues?

[Aric Dunn]

well no fun I definitely wont make landfall time if it keeps this up .. oh well.

Think the port st joe area spared a bullet?

I mean your sill going to get heavy winds and rain. but the center will be ese of by a decent amount.

[gatorcane]

Saved VIS loop, seems to be wobbling NE, judge for yourself. By the way this "eye" came out of nowhere:

[dizzyfish]

3.51 miles inland in Pasco county and the nasties started coming through a couple of minutes ago. Steady rain but not much wind so far. (crosses fingers)

[tallywx]

This latest NE wobble/movement was an important one for Tallahassee.

I'm confused, is this bad or good?

Any eastward jog at this point helps put Tallahassee on the weaker side. Worst case scenario for Tallahassee would be if the center passed over Quincy or something. To do that this thing would need to landfall at Port St Joe or Apalachicola. It's already as far east as Panama City so it would need to head almost due north from here on out to hit that benchmark.

[Aric Dunn]

Would I be correct in assuming a 4ish hour early arrival compared to previous forecast if the forward speed up continues?

models are from I think 2am up to 9am but given the forward jump and earlier arrival is more likely.

[Bizzles]

Saved VIS loop, seems to be wobbling NE, judge for yourself. By the way this "eye" came out of nowhere:

I looks like she's clenching her fist to punch FL right of the CONUS

[dizzyfish]

Cancel my previous post. It's rockin now!

[AutoPenalti]

This thing exploded.

[crimi481]

I am in Englewood, 1/8 mile from Gulf - winds picking up now. Heading to beach to view.
Charlie landed 25 miles s. of me. I guess I need to bring the tomato plants in? lol

The center rotation showing - moving closer to radar -long range from Tampa
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... w&loop=yes

[BRweather]

NASA satellite on visible...looks like eye starting to clear out and wrap convection on southwest side around.

With at about 12 hours until landfall, I would expect mid-range CAT 1

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1200 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

CORRECTED TO REPLACE ARIPEKA WITH LONGBOAT KEY IN FIRST
PARAGRAPH OF STORM SURGE HAZARD STATEMENT

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG FLORIDA GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward along the
west coast of Florida to Englewood, including the greater Tampa/St.
Petersburg area, and southward along the east coast of Florida to
the Flagler/Volusia County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line
* Flagler/Volusia County line to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere along the United States mid-Atlantic and
northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 85.6 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during
the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine
will be near the Florida coast in the hurricane warning area tonight
or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Hermine is
expected to be a hurricane by the time landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

This Special Advisory replaces the intermediate advisory that would
have been issued at 100 PM CDT.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area beginning tonight. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area along
the Atlantic coast on Friday, and spread northward through Friday
evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area by Friday night and Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 12 to 24 hours along
the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Longboat Key. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located
within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life
and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...4 to 7 feet
Ochlockonee River to Keaton Beach...5 to 8 feet
Keaton Beach to Chassahowitzka...4 to 7 feet
Chassahowitzka to Longboat Key...including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 feet
Longboat Key to Bonita Beach...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017. This prototype graphic is available at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida
and southern Georgia through Friday, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches. On Friday and Saturday, Hermine is expected
to produce totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches possible across portions of eastern Georgia, South
Carolina, and eastern North Carolina through Saturday. These rains
may cause life-threatening flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon into Friday
morning over north Florida and southeast Georgia. The tornado risk
will continue across the eastern Carolinas from Friday morning into
Friday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1200 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

Reports from a hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
the extent of tropical-storm-force winds has increased
significantly in the eastern semicircle. This requires an
extension of the tropical storm warning southward along both
Florida coasts. This Special Advisory is being issued to modify
the warnings, and to update the analyzed and forecast wind radii.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track.
Hermine is an extremely asymmetric storm, with a large extent of
dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains
well to the east and southeast of the path of the center.

2. Hermine is expected to undergo a complex interaction with a
frontal system when it reaches the Carolinas over the weekend. It
is a little early to say what the specific impacts will be for the
mid-Atlantic and northeastern states.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1700Z 27.8N 85.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 29.0N 84.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 31.1N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/0000Z 33.1N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1200Z 38.0N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1200Z 38.5N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1200Z 39.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Franklin

[GCANE]

There goes the buoy to the NW

[Michele B]

The large radius of 50 knot+ winds will likely result in quite a storm surge event. We could see some locations report 10+ ft of surge, as suggested by the aforementioned SLOSH run. That can be very, very dangerous to anyone along the coast. Also, the slower this moves, the closer the max surge will coincide with high tide, which really is not good.

I thought it was clipping along at 14 mph?

[chris_fit]

Tallahassee Radar...great timing

806
NOUS62 KTAE 011545
FTMTLH
Message Date: Sep 01 2016 16:01:29

KTLH RADAR DATA IS EXPERIENCING INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. TECHS ARE WORKING ON THE P
ROBLEM.