ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Our winds outside of squalls have increased markedly. the next band is going to put more people in the dark I'm afraid.

Watching that next band - looks stronger and longer lasting. Wxman57 said earlier he thought Hermine could top out at 100 mph at landfall.

100mph at landfall would not surprise me at all.

[NDG]

Is there a possibility this baroclinic enhancement to its NE may cause unexpected greater intensification? This was a fear as it got close to the coast...

There's no baroclinic effects going on right now, no cold air any where close, eastern upper level trough is what is enhancing the outflow.

[Steve]

I think from a historical perspective, people are blowing the potential and look out of proportion. TWC was hawking the buoy the center just past by and promoted the gusts. Sustained was 50s which is plenty strong enough, but I'm thinking the NHC has been overplaying intensity for at least a few years. I haven't really seen a lot of sustained winds with any recent tropical systems measured on land. Obviously the winds will usually be stronger over water.

This is a cool storm but it's not some vicious Cat 3/4/5. Dry air slots have mixed in, there is no real core and the eye is ragged. It looks like a high end TS/low end H. I'm not downing on it, but people should keep their perspective.

Up to about 4 hours ago I would've fully agreed with you Steve. I have to admit though, with the tightening eye, colder tops, and convections tightly wound around the west side I can finally say that i'm fairly impressed with Hermine. I just got home and havn't had the luxury of keeping up here today but i'm curious as to what the highest gusts recorded by recon were (well, extrapolated of course). With the little time remaining yet with present appearance taken into account, I would frankly be surprised if the winds were not pushing 90mph by landfall.

For sure. I'm more calling out TWC. The gusts they showed were similar to what our people saw in Pinellas Co. Having spent my fair share of days in sustained > TS strength, it's not just a walk in the park. It looks as good as it had, and fortunately we didn't have a structure like Gaston's which would have been brutal. This will be bad (or good depending on perspective) but gratefully not catastrophic. We break the string tonight of Hurricane landfalls in FL and also hits on the mainland. I didn't follow recon today so I don't know if they released any info on strongest gusts. I'm guessing fairly high at flight level. Off topic, but I listened to an interview with a HH pilot a couple years ago who said it's easier to fly in a mature IH than a developing system of lower intensity.

[artist]

You forget all it takes is one of the mini vortices to drop by and you forget it only had sustained winds of less than 70, which still is nothing to sneeze at, particularly where there are many trees about. And usually a hurricane can have multiple mini vortices which can randomlly hit without any warning. Trust me, I know.

I think from a historical perspective, people are blowing the potential and look out of proportion. TWC was hawking the buoy the center just past by and promoted the gusts. Sustained was 50s which is plenty strong enough, but I'm thinking the NHC has been overplaying intensity for at least a few years. I haven't really seen a lot of sustained winds with any recent tropical systems measured on land. Obviously the winds will usually be stronger over water.

This is a cool storm but it's not some vicious Cat 3/4/5. Dry air slots have mixed in, there is no real core and the eye is ragged. It looks like a high end TS/low end H. I'm not downing on it, but people should keep their perspective.

[TPAcane]

Can't fine TLH live streaming....here is Panama City.... http://www.wjhg.com/livestream

[Frank P]

This would be the perfect little storm for me to ride out on my beach house in Biloxi... I would not certainly not evacuate for Hermine and would love to have been able to get some great video off my front porch, if something similar hit Biloxi... but still, glad I am not dealing with it... good luck to all in harms way and hopefully no one get injured or worse.. damage will occur but stuff can be replaced and rebuilt...

[blazess556]

Dropsonde in south eyewall reported 82 mph sustained winds at the surface. Pressure 989 mb

[Steve]

You forget all it takes is one of the mini vortices to drop by and you forget it only had sustained winds of less than 70, which still is nothing to sneeze at, particularly where there are many trees about. And usually a hurricane can have multiple mini vortices which can randomlly hit without any warning. Trust me, I know.

I think from a historical perspective, people are blowing the potential and look out of proportion. TWC was hawking the buoy the center just past by and promoted the gusts. Sustained was 50s which is plenty strong enough, but I'm thinking the NHC has been overplaying intensity for at least a few years. I haven't really seen a lot of sustained winds with any recent tropical systems measured on land. Obviously the winds will usually be stronger over water.

This is a cool storm but it's not some vicious Cat 3/4/5. Dry air slots have mixed in, there is no real core and the eye is ragged. It looks like a high end TS/low end H. I'm not downing on it, but people should keep their perspective.

I'm not downplaying potential. Many people's lives and possessions are going to get ruined. I'm downplaying hype (TWC). Otoh very cool they showed the washed out highway in Alligator Pointe. I was on that road trying to find a lot a couple months ago. Assuming fishing is great in that general area.

[ronjon]

She's tightening up and jogging east now - I think Hermine's got another 5-6 hours over open water.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

[caneman]

Eye appears to be tightening up on radar as well.. WOW... that is a great IR sat photo of a strengthening hurricane!

Compare that to the HWRF Simulated IR from 0z.

http://i64.tinypic.com/29mvek9.png

And people were laughing at the HWRF just a couple of days ago.

Not me, I trust them for wind speed.

[Nimbus]

Mostly the beaches that felt hurricane gust winds in Pinellas, looks like power is still out on the barrier islands south of Redington Beach, just one narrow feeder band wow we got lucky.

[deltadog03]

Ok, updated map...

I think this is the general area NHC is at? Please someone correct me if not.

[Aric Dunn]

winds in cedar have picked up a lot in the past hour.. http://hurricanetrack.com/cam2.html

[GCANE]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1615.html

[artist]

Saw a dog catch a fish on the side of the road in St. Marks, on Mark's live surge cam.

You forget all it takes is one of the mini vortices to drop by and you forget it only had sustained winds of less than 70, which still is nothing to sneeze at, particularly where there are many trees about. And usually a hurricane can have multiple mini vortices which can randomlly hit without any warning. Trust me, I know.

I think from a historical perspective, people are blowing the potential and look out of proportion. TWC was hawking the buoy the center just past by and promoted the gusts. Sustained was 50s which is plenty strong enough, but I'm thinking the NHC has been overplaying intensity for at least a few years. I haven't really seen a lot of sustained winds with any recent tropical systems measured on land. Obviously the winds will usually be stronger over water.

This is a cool storm but it's not some vicious Cat 3/4/5. Dry air slots have mixed in, there is no real core and the eye is ragged. It looks like a high end TS/low end H. I'm not downing on it, but people should keep their perspective.

I'm not downplaying potential. Many people's lives and possessions are going to get ruined. I'm downplaying hype (TWC). Otoh very cool they showed the washed out highway in Alligator Pointe. I was on that road trying to find a lot a couple months ago. Assuming fishing is great in that general area.

[Aric Dunn]

dekle beach and horseshoe are going to take the main blow from this... right front quad..

[psyclone]

Our winds outside of squalls have increased markedly. the next band is going to put more people in the dark I'm afraid.

Watching that next band - looks stronger and longer lasting. Wxman57 said earlier he thought Hermine could top out at 100 mph at landfall.

That next one looks well positioned to really hammer you guys up on the nature coast. perhaps a more conditional threat down here. She's sassy that's for sure.

[psyclone]

dekle beach and horseshoe are going to take the main blow from this... right front quad..

ground zero for the 1993 superstorm non TC storm surge

[NWFL56]

If this had 12-18 more hours over water...wow

Thank heaven it didn't! Been peaking at sat. pics all day while busy with work. Figured a nighttime landfall with a borderline hurricane. This is not looking borderline; At least not in the last couple of hours. Aric, you ever fly on down here to chase this? Anyone else out there in or near Wakulla county with video/pics?

I was in Wakulla. I left. Lol. In Tallahassee now.

[NWFL56]

If this had 12-18 more hours over water...wow

Thank heaven it didn't! Been peaking at sat. pics all day while busy with work. Figured a nighttime landfall with a borderline hurricane. This is not looking borderline; At least not in the last couple of hours. Aric, you ever fly on down here to chase this? Anyone else out there in or near Wakulla county with video/pics?

I was in Wakulla. I left. Lol. In Tallahassee now.