ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

Did you make it in?

dekle beach and horseshoe are going to take the main blow from this... right front quad..

[Alyono]

what seems to be happening is the wind field is getting larger, instead of the peak winds increasing.

SFMR is finding hurricane force winds aloft, but the SFMRs are below hurricane force. Very surprising to me. We still had the dropsonde

[Hammy]

what seems to be happening is the wind field is getting larger, instead of the peak winds increasing.

SFMR is finding hurricane force winds aloft, but the SFMRs are below hurricane force. Very surprising to me. We still had the dropsonde

Any reason the SFMR seems to be underestimating the winds if that's the case?

And as an aside this seems to be the first hurricane since 1966 to landfall between Cedar Key and Apalachicola.

[SunnyThoughts]

989mb (29.21 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 24.7°C (76°F) 220° (from the SW) 71 knots (82 mph)

Apparently this was a dropsonde measurement 82mph at the surface ( got this from another site, so can't corroborate) but it doesn't surprise me.

[xcool22]

gom is open for business this years imo

[psyclone]

Looks like an increasing chance of a hurricane landfall in the big bend/forgotten coast region. Hurricanes never hit there...except when they do. Imagine if we had accurate tropical cyclone maps over a 1000 year period or more. No doubt we'd find no one is exempt..but it's easy to be fooled by long stretches of luck...which can last a century or more. there's no doubt that some stretches of coast are more vulnerable than others but lower risk doesn't = no risk. It's easy to be fooled by small sample sizes. So, Georgia coast, NE Florida coast, Tampa Bay...and other places showing off remarkable luck streaks just remember your number will eventually pop in the game that is tropical roulette.

[artist]

Nhc recon hdob archive page is suddenly stating page not found when I click their link. Anyone else have another source? Thanks in advance.

[Aric Dunn]

recon.. few mid 80knt FL.. its deepening..

234000 2848N 08429W 8424 01416 9920 +184 +184 226067 070 060 011 00
234030 2847N 08427W 8413 01431 9924 +188 +188 231076 080 060 012 03
234100 2846N 08426W 8429 01422 9938 +183 +183 226078 082 059 025 02
234130 2845N 08425W 8426 01432 9950 +177 +177 220078 080 058 014 06
234200 2844N 08424W 8432 01431 9958 +172 +172 219075 076 059 012 03
234230 2843N 08423W 8436 01432 9959 +172 //// 221078 079 057 007 05
234300 2842N 08421W 8427 01449 9960 +167 //// 220083 086 056 005 01


more to come on the next set i imagine.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 012343
AF304 1409A HERMINE HDOB 09 20160901
233330 2904N 08442W 8435 01369 9850 +208 +176 211024 025 013 001 03
233400 2902N 08442W 8429 01370 9849 +209 +164 211024 025 014 000 00
233430 2901N 08442W 8428 01371 9853 +201 +175 212025 026 010 002 00
233500 2859N 08441W 8432 01370 9853 +204 +171 208027 029 008 002 03
233530 2858N 08440W 8430 01373 9852 +212 +161 206030 031 017 001 00
233600 2857N 08439W 8426 01378 9853 +215 +150 212034 036 020 001 03
233630 2856N 08437W 8432 01377 9857 +211 +157 214038 040 023 002 00
233700 2855N 08436W 8429 01381 9861 +209 +163 216043 045 030 001 00
233730 2854N 08435W 8431 01383 9867 +205 +170 218049 050 035 002 00
233800 2853N 08434W 8430 01388 9875 +199 +174 220054 056 038 003 03
233830 2852N 08432W 8430 01393 9886 +190 +184 219058 059 043 006 00
233900 2850N 08431W 8422 01407 9893 +184 +183 221061 063 046 005 00
233930 2849N 08430W 8432 01405 9904 +186 //// 222064 065 051 008 01
234000 2848N 08429W 8424 01416 9920 +184 +184 226067 070 060 011 00
234030 2847N 08427W 8413 01431 9924 +188 +188 231076 080 060 012 03
234100 2846N 08426W 8429 01422 9938 +183 +183 226078 082 059 025 02
234130 2845N 08425W 8426 01432 9950 +177 +177 220078 080 058 014 06
234200 2844N 08424W 8432 01431 9958 +172 +172 219075 076 059 012 03
234230 2843N 08423W 8436 01432 9959 +172 //// 221078 079 057 007 05
234300 2842N 08421W 8427 01449 9960 +167 //// 220083 086 056 005 01
$$
;

82 kt FL, 60 kt SFMR.

[chaser1]

Why am I not seeing any intermediate updates newer than 4:00pm CT??? I obviously tried clearing my cache and refreshing the page but thats all im seeing?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KWBC 012330
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 01/22:41:34Z
B. 28 deg 54 min N
084 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2981 m
D. 49 kt
E. 259 deg 55 nm
F. 358 deg 54 kt
G. 259 deg 55 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 11 C / 3077 m
J. 16 C / 3049 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. .01 / 2 nm
P. NOAA3 WXWXA HERMINE OB 18
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 75 KT 137 / 58 NM 22:59:02Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255 / 08 KTS
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 61 KT 180 / 23 NM 22:48:00Z

[JaxGator]

recon.. few mid 80knt FL.. its deepening..

234000 2848N 08429W 8424 01416 9920 +184 +184 226067 070 060 011 00
234030 2847N 08427W 8413 01431 9924 +188 +188 231076 080 060 012 03
234100 2846N 08426W 8429 01422 9938 +183 +183 226078 082 059 025 02
234130 2845N 08425W 8426 01432 9950 +177 +177 220078 080 058 014 06
234200 2844N 08424W 8432 01431 9958 +172 +172 219075 076 059 012 03
234230 2843N 08423W 8436 01432 9959 +172 //// 221078 079 057 007 05
234300 2842N 08421W 8427 01449 9960 +167 //// 220083 086 056 005 01


more to come on the next set i imagine.

I bet that's why NHC I waiting to issue the latest advisory perhaps. Waiting on recon to fully measure the eyewall and wind field.

[chaser1]

(sorry all, posted to the wrong room)

[galaxy401]

80 mph now on advisory.

[Hammy]

recon.. few mid 80knt FL.. its deepening..

234000 2848N 08429W 8424 01416 9920 +184 +184 226067 070 060 011 00
234030 2847N 08427W 8413 01431 9924 +188 +188 231076 080 060 012 03
234100 2846N 08426W 8429 01422 9938 +183 +183 226078 082 059 025 02
234130 2845N 08425W 8426 01432 9950 +177 +177 220078 080 058 014 06
234200 2844N 08424W 8432 01431 9958 +172 +172 219075 076 059 012 03
234230 2843N 08423W 8436 01432 9959 +172 //// 221078 079 057 007 05
234300 2842N 08421W 8427 01449 9960 +167 //// 220083 086 056 005 01


more to come on the next set i imagine.

I bet that's why NHC I waiting to issue the latest advisory perhaps. Waiting on recon to fully measure the eyewall and wind field.

Up to 80mph, looks like they went with the sonde.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 012353
AF304 1409A HERMINE HDOB 10 20160901
234330 2841N 08420W 8427 01454 9968 +161 //// 216085 085 056 004 01
234400 2840N 08419W 8429 01456 9970 +166 //// 219084 085 055 004 01
234430 2839N 08418W 8429 01461 9975 +172 //// 219082 085 048 005 05
234500 2838N 08417W 8456 01439 9987 +173 //// 220081 082 051 007 01
234530 2837N 08416W 8428 01469 9992 +166 +164 216082 085 049 008 00
234600 2836N 08415W 8436 01468 9986 +168 +165 217080 081 049 005 00
234630 2835N 08413W 8428 01478 9992 +164 +164 219080 081 046 005 01
234700 2834N 08412W 8424 01487 //// +161 //// 219078 081 043 002 01
234730 2834N 08412W 8424 01487 0002 +163 +158 217077 078 044 002 01
234800 2832N 08410W 8425 01489 0003 +162 +158 215077 078 044 002 00
234830 2831N 08409W 8434 01482 0005 +165 +158 216075 076 042 005 00
234900 2830N 08408W 8426 01495 0008 +165 +156 218073 074 041 005 00
234930 2829N 08406W 8425 01500 0011 +166 +156 218071 072 041 002 00
235000 2827N 08405W 8432 01492 0011 +172 +145 219071 071 040 002 00
235030 2826N 08404W 8432 01497 0015 +171 +144 220071 071 040 002 00
235100 2825N 08403W 8432 01499 0017 +170 +149 222070 070 041 002 03
235130 2824N 08402W 8426 01506 0019 +169 +150 221067 070 040 000 00
235200 2823N 08400W 8433 01500 0020 +171 +150 222069 070 035 002 00
235230 2822N 08359W 8426 01507 0022 +168 +155 222067 069 036 002 01
235300 2821N 08358W 8429 01507 0023 +167 +157 226067 069 038 001 01
$$
;

85 kt FL. Focusing on the AF plane but will post NOAA highlights.

[Evil Jeremy]

recon.. few mid 80knt FL.. its deepening..

234000 2848N 08429W 8424 01416 9920 +184 +184 226067 070 060 011 00
234030 2847N 08427W 8413 01431 9924 +188 +188 231076 080 060 012 03
234100 2846N 08426W 8429 01422 9938 +183 +183 226078 082 059 025 02
234130 2845N 08425W 8426 01432 9950 +177 +177 220078 080 058 014 06
234200 2844N 08424W 8432 01431 9958 +172 +172 219075 076 059 012 03
234230 2843N 08423W 8436 01432 9959 +172 //// 221078 079 057 007 05
234300 2842N 08421W 8427 01449 9960 +167 //// 220083 086 056 005 01


more to come on the next set i imagine.

Indeed

234330 2841N 08420W 8427 01454 9968 +161 //// 216085 085 056 004 01
234400 2840N 08419W 8429 01456 9970 +166 //// 219084 085 055 004 01
234430 2839N 08418W 8429 01461 9975 +172 //// 219082 085 048 005 05
234500 2838N 08417W 8456 01439 9987 +173 //// 220081 082 051 007 01
234530 2837N 08416W 8428 01469 9992 +166 +164 216082 085 049 008 00
234600 2836N 08415W 8436 01468 9986 +168 +165 217080 081 049 005 00
234630 2835N 08413W 8428 01478 9992 +164 +164 219080 081 046 005 01
234700 2834N 08412W 8424 01487 //// +161 //// 219078 081 043 002 01

[GCANE]

Damn good looking for a Cat 1. Amazing there is no sign of land interaction.

[chaser1]

I'm guessing that recon will continue to fly right up to eye landfall, or does that pose an enchanced risk to crew and plane? Really looks like Hermine wants to make a push to Cat 2. Time frame seems a bit too close though

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GASTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
800 PM AST THU SEP 01 2016

...GASTON MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 37.3W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM W OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was located
near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 37.3 West. Gaston is moving
toward the east-northeast near 25 mph (40 km/h). An east-
northeastward motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected
through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will
move near the western Azores on Friday and pass north of the central
Azores on Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Gaston
is expected to become a tropical storm by early Friday before it
reaches the western Azores. Gaston is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly to the south and east of the center. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the western Azores
on Friday and in the central Azores Friday night.

RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches, primarily over the western Azores, through the
weekend.

SURF: Swells generated by Gaston will begin affecting the Azores
tonight and continue into Saturday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg