ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

I'm guessing that recon will continue to fly right up to eye landfall, or does that pose an enchanced risk to crew and plane? Really looks like Hermine wants to make a push to Cat 2. Time frame seems a bit too close though

They'll fly until landfall. If they're at 10000 ft there isn't a risk.

[Soonercane]

Does anyone think this about to undergo extratropical transition, with stronger winds aloft not translating to the sfc, and the wind field enlarging (combined with the upper jet dynamics on its northeast side)?

[ronjon]

Wow down to 983 mb!

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
800 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2016

...HERMINE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 84.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[chaser1]

Did you make it in?

dekle beach and horseshoe are going to take the main blow from this... right front quad..

Horseshoe Beach is the last place you'd wanna be right now. I've only been there once but there's nothing there that would not be under water in a significant surge. Anyone staying there has a death wish (and thats coming from a crazy person that chases 'em lol)

[seahawkjd]

Rookie question, but is the friction and shape of the land its approaching helping to tighten it up? I remember years ago Derek used to talk about that happening with some storms.

[AdamFirst]

Sending best wishes to anyone in the path of this storm...it's got that sinister look as it rears up for landfall.

[chaser1]

Does anyone think this about to undergo extratropical transition, with stronger winds aloft not translating to the sfc, and the wind field enlarging (combined with the upper jet dynamics on its northeast side)?

Given the expanding wind fields one would think maybe. Then you take a look at the satellite and look at that core, and try to make a case for undergoing extratropical transitioning.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Stay safe everyone in Hermine's path.

[BRweather]

I am not trying to downplay this storm, but even though it is strengthening, I am seeing no visuals that make my jaw drop. TWC has someone on Apalachicola and the eye is not too far from him and it does not look too significant.

Also the rains have really thinned out and the heavy rains are in isolated bans and they are not training as bad.

We will have to see what the aftermath is, but I am getting the sense the area will be okay.

Edit: The surge prone areas look at the moment where the most damage will occur

[chaser1]

If this had 12-18 more hours over water...wow

Thank heaven it didn't! Been peaking at sat. pics all day while busy with work. Figured a nighttime landfall with a borderline hurricane. This is not looking borderline; At least not in the last couple of hours. Aric, you ever fly on down here to chase this? Anyone else out there in or near Wakulla county with video/pics?

I was in Wakulla. I left. Lol. In Tallahassee now.

NOOOOOO, you could've stayed at a hotel on 98 I think, just outside the storm surge zone. Then again, far less down there to film or watch. Marsh and trees

[Noles2016]

Did you make it in?

dekle beach and horseshoe are going to take the main blow from this... right front quad..

Horseshoe Beach is the last place you'd wanna be right now. I've only been there once but there's nothing there that would not be under water in a significant surge. Anyone staying there has a death wish (and thats coming from a crazy person that chases 'em lol)

Anyone along the coast of the Bay knows better... at least you'd think... we flood for some afternoon thunderstorms that roll in from the Gulf!

[NDG]

A strengthening hurricane at landfall, not good!!!

[Kazmit]

Hermine's a big storm... outflow extends from Atlanta down to the western tip of Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

IT has slowed down quite a bit again.

[chaser1]

Really surprised that the Orlando area has gotten as little as it has today. That said, i'm guessing the S.E. quad might bring in some bands that'll finally rotate around and over us. Would think that what slight risk of tornados might play out along these strong feeder bands coming ashore on the west coast.

[chaser1]

IT has slowed down quite a bit again.

deepening perhaps?

[GCANE]

Stay safe everyone. Hopefully, everyone has taken the best precautions they can. Prayers are with you.

[Aric Dunn]

IT has slowed down quite a bit again.

deepening perhaps?

quite likely.

[tolakram]

live ir

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-85&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

[BRweather]

If I am Jim Cantore,

I am trying to get to Perry.