ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[terstorm1012]

so say this makes it to 100mph before landfall---which seems really possible. What does that mean for us up here in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic? Because I'm a little confused about the forecast after it leaves North Carolina---it's supposed to get all hybrid-like, like with Sandy?

Stay safe everyone in the path. This really escalated really fast.

[chaser1]

quite likely.

I'm guessing we might soon see a little bit of an eastward jerk in reaction to that ball of convection swinging up and around from the south. Game of inches for those on the ground. Say?? If you already responded I missed it, but did you make it down here to chase?

no plane was late and nothing else available close by. ill miss landfall by a few hours unless it magically slows to a crawl lol

Not worth the expense to make for a middle of the night "post landfall" damage survey. Wait for the bigger one coming in a month or so
Boy, your right... Deckle Beach would be one spot to be (if one could find a talll enough palm tree to tie themself to). Otherwise, Sopchoppy as well. Only problem is that place is probably underwater by now. You know.... If this were to slow down a bit more, than it'll come ashore nearly at the peak high tide - NOT good

[txwatcher91]

Eyewall is close to closing off on radar and IR presentation continues to improve. I'm thinking the outflow channel and frictional effects of land are helping this intensify and it wouldn't surprise me if this made cat 2 status still. It also seems like winds are beginning to respond to the pressure drop some based on the last pass with 80+kt FL winds.

[LCfromFL]

IT has slowed down quite a bit again.

deepening perhaps?

quite likely.

Hey Aric...did you make it in to Jax? I was able to fly home yesterday...so will be reporting on conditions in Callahan, FL through the evening and tomorrow. So far we've just had the one band pass through with heavy rain that didn't last long (.57").

Folks, stay safe.

[NDG]

Winds have really picked up in the Tampa Bay area, and is barely light raining, nothing but pressure gradient.

onditions at: KTPA observed 01 September 2016 23:53 UTC
Temperature: 26.7°C (80°F)
Dewpoint: 23.9°C (75°F) [RH = 85%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.78 inches Hg (1008.5 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1008.4 mb]
Winds: from the S (180 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.4 m/s)
gusting to 45 MPH (39 knots; 20.3 m/s)
Visibility: 6 miles (10 km)
Ceiling: 9500 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 2500 feet AGL
scattered clouds at 3800 feet AGL
broken clouds at 9500 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 13000 feet AGL
Present Weather: -RA (light rain)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

so say this makes it to 100mph before landfall---which seems really possible. What does that mean for us up here in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic? Because I'm a little confused about the forecast after it leaves North Carolina---it's supposed to get all hybrid-like, like with Sandy?

Stay safe everyone in the path. This really escalated really fast.

That's the million dollar question. Even the NHC doesn't know for sure.

[Nimbus]

I'm going to guess this will be similar to Katrina 2005 in south Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

The storm perhaps, but the construction standards of buildings and the amount trees that will go down.. no .. Tallahassee has a Tree City USA designation.. lots of trees on cars, roofs, etc. will occur tonight.

I don't know how far inland the surface winds will sustain.
A single squall line took out power for over 20,000 residents in Pinellas county and the
power is still off. Most of the wind damage seemed to occur within 5 miles of the southern exposed beaches so maybe something similar will occur up in Tallahassee if they get the weak side of the storm.

[floridasun78]

I'm going to guess this will be similar to Katrina 2005 in south Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

yes Katrina came in 90mph wind to south flo

[txwatcher91]

One other thing I'll add, if this makes landfall in the Apalachee Bay Area that will give it a few additional hours over water. I think this is quite likely to occur I've seen it happen many times with landfalling hurricanes following the coastline to the point of least resistance. That extra time over water will allow a little more strengthening too.

[johngaltfla]

eye continuing to contract and deeper convection working its way into a somewhat coherent eyewall. cat 2 before landfall is still quite possible.

I think you're right. That's an impressive storm today and tomorrow the clean up will be massive from down here to the panhandle. It has impacted a wide swath of the West Coast of Florida.

[deltadog03]

T his looks pretty darn good, I definitely was too far west, not by a bunch, but was wrong thinking it would be Appalachiacola. Should be west of Perry it appears.

[JKingTampa]

Winds have really picked up in the Tampa Bay area, and is barely light raining, nothing but pressure gradient.

onditions at: KTPA observed 01 September 2016 23:53 UTC
Temperature: 26.7°C (80°F)
Dewpoint: 23.9°C (75°F) [RH = 85%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.78 inches Hg (1008.5 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1008.4 mb]
Winds: from the S (180 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.4 m/s)
gusting to 45 MPH (39 knots; 20.3 m/s)
Visibility: 6 miles (10 km)
Ceiling: 9500 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 2500 feet AGL
scattered clouds at 3800 feet AGL
broken clouds at 9500 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 13000 feet AGL
Present Weather: -RA (light rain)

Here in eastern Pinellas we have been getting stronger winds. Increasing quite a bit as the hour passes.

[Evil Jeremy]

It's calm in Jacksonville. After a squall earlier, the sunset was peaceful. It's quiet outside. Lots of people returning from their last-minute Publix runs.

It's going to be a bumpy night. Should start in an hour for us. I'll be here.

[floridasun78]

i want wise all patch of hurr good luck and east coast going flood rain doing weekend

[drezee]

recon obs stopped 30+ mins ago...

[Aric Dunn]

funny its taking the path with the most water in front of it lol .

[LarryWx]

what seems to be happening is the wind field is getting larger, instead of the peak winds increasing.

SFMR is finding hurricane force winds aloft, but the SFMRs are below hurricane force. Very surprising to me. We still had the dropsonde

Any reason the SFMR seems to be underestimating the winds if that's the case?

And as an aside this seems to be the first hurricane since 1966 to landfall between Cedar Key and Apalachicola.

Yes, indeed, the first in 50 years there. Before that, I have 1950, 1945, 1935, 1896, 1888, 1886, 1882, 1874, 1873, 1871, 1867, and 1852 as H hits in that corridor including Cedar Key, itself.

[Steve]

Eyewall is close to closing off on radar and IR presentation continues to improve. I'm thinking the outflow channel and frictional effects of land are helping this intensify and it wouldn't surprise me if this made cat 2 status still. It also seems like winds are beginning to respond to the pressure drop some based on the last pass with 80+kt FL winds.

Very heavy stuff on the south side of the eye atm. Also brutal feeder band is working its way into the NE part of the bay. That's a strong one, and if it gets hung up...

[CrazyC83]

AF plane hasn't reported in over 40 minutes.

[deltadog03]

Recon having issues?