ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Recon planned for tomorrow

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 14N 56W AT 03/1800Z.

It's in better shape this morning, but not enough to be more than a rainmaker for Eastern Caribbean

It seems Ouragans that should be good news for us. Whereas, let's continue to monitor it in case of as usual because of Mother Nature has often surprises in store especially with one.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016



A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 21N22W to a 1011 mb surface low near 16N23W to
10N23W. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and
global models. TPW imagery shows the wave embedded in a area of
abundant moisture between 09N-20N. Isolated moderate convection is
observed in the vicinity of the wave and low from 12N-16N between
21N24W while scattered moderate convection prevails across the
southern portion of the wave between 19W-28W.

[GCANE]

Watching the wave at 45W. Looks like the so called "Protected Pouch" on WV.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

COAMPS shows it holding up well into the Carib

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/w ... 50&tau=999

Just needs to get past the strong 200mb vorticity axis runing between 50 & 60W.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

Will see if it flares up once it gets on the SW side of that.

[GCANE]

Good convergence on MIMIC-TPW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016



A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 21N22W to a 1011 mb surface low near 16N23W to
10N23W. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and
global models. TPW imagery shows the wave embedded in a area of
abundant moisture between 09N-20N. Isolated moderate convection is
observed in the vicinity of the wave and low from 12N-16N between
21N24W while scattered moderate convection prevails across the
southern portion of the wave between 19W-28W.

So sorry for the mistake, that's not the good one related to ex 92L . Here is the latest on :

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
from 20N41W to 09N42W, moving west near 20 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough
depicted by global models and is embedded within a surge of deep
moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-18N between 41W-47W.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016



A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 21N22W to a 1011 mb surface low near 16N23W to
10N23W. ...

Looks like they think it will continue to lose latitude, since the recon invest would be near 14N 56W tomorrow, if they go.

EDIT: Oops! I only just spotted your error, Gusty.
Anyway, the system still seems to be losing latitude.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016



A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 21N22W to a 1011 mb surface low near 16N23W to
10N23W. ...

Looks like they think it will continue to lose latitude, since the recon invest would be near 14N 56W tomorrow, if they go.

That was a wrong post from my part... as this not the tw related to ex 92L.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016



A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 21N22W to a 1011 mb surface low near 16N23W to
10N23W. ...

Looks like they think it will continue to lose latitude, since the recon invest would be near 14N 56W tomorrow, if they go.

That was a wrong post from my part... as this not the tw related to ex 92L.

No problem. lol

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016



A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 21N22W to a 1011 mb surface low near 16N23W to
10N23W. ...

Looks like they think it will continue to lose latitude, since the recon invest would be near 14N 56W tomorrow, if they go.

EDIT: Oops! I only just spotted your error, Gusty.
Anyway, the system still seems to be losing latitude.

yeah thanks for that clarification. Absolutely Abajan seems to be loosing some latitude. Ex 92L is in better shape this mrning, numerous tstorms are flaring up in vicinity. Let's see if this improving trend continues or not. Definitely ex 92L is making a comeback, time will tell.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track of once again 92L.

Location: 13.0°N 44.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 75 NM

[Gustywind]

12z Best Track of once again 92L.

Location: 13.0°N 44.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 75 NM

Here we are again Cycloneye! I was just speaking about a comeback in my last post. Many of us write this off, right now we have a rebuilding Invest more healthy moving towards the Lesser Antilles. Let's wait and see the trend with this feature. Don't let your guard down islanders...

[cycloneye]

[abajan]

12z Best Track of once again 92L.

Location: 13.0°N 44.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 75 NM

13.0N? That's actually slightly below Barbados' latitude! What on earth is going on? In all my years tracking systems crossing the Atlantic, I don't think I've ever seen one take such a persistently south-of-west (more like WSW) route, all the way from Africa:



Crazy.

[kungfut]

abajan. I agree that is certainly not a common track. I wonder if it will continue south-westish or turn to the w-nw and go through
the USVI and PR. I am on St. John

12z Best Track of once again 92L.

Location: 13.0°N 44.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 75 NM

13.0N? That's actually slightly below Barbados' latitude! What on earth is going on? In all my years tracking systems crossing the Atlantic, I don't think I've ever seen one take such a persistently south-of-west (more like WSW) route, all the way from Africa:



Crazy.

[SoupBone]

12z Best Track of once again 92L.

Location: 13.0°N 44.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 75 NM

13.0N? That's actually slightly below Barbados' latitude! What on earth is going on? In all my years tracking systems crossing the Atlantic, I don't think I've ever seen one take such a persistently south-of-west (more like WSW) route, all the way from Africa:


Crazy.

It can keep heading in that direction, too.

[O Town]

Reminds me of Dean 2007, it's was around 12N. But that turned into a monster. Stayed south until it hit Mexico.

[ouragans]

13N.... As far as I can remember, that's the GFS forecast more or less. A little bit south, but a WSW track after Cabo Verde was expected. Then, WNW from 50W.

A sharp turn WNW can be reasonably expected if the system develops, but time is running short before the islands.

[GCANE]

By tracking that far south, its going to dodge most of the shear from the broad, enlongated ULL at about 21N 55W.
The ULL looks rather weak anyway and is filling in with mid-level moisture.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

Usually, when a wave gets to the SW side of those ULLs, they have a greater chance to develop.
This is especially true when the wave has some decent convection with outflow.
At that point, shear dimishes due to the fact the the upper-level winds from the wave and the ULL reinforce each other.

IMHO, it bears watching especially when it gets to the mid and west Carib.

[ConvergenceZone]

Man this wave is moving lightning fast! Almost already 1/2 way to the islands

[Gustywind]

13N.... As far as I can remember, that's the GFS forecast more or less. A little bit south, but a WSW track after Cabo Verde was expected. Then, WNW from 50W.

A sharp turn WNW can be reasonably expected if the system develops, but time is running short before the islands.

You're right Ouragans.