ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Happy Pelican]

Not a negative tilt this time but one really strong Rex Block will keep this from moving back out to sea for some time. I think this will be much worse for the Jersey Shore than people might think. I'm glad the "Sandy" rule is in effect---whether Hermine gets all weird and hybrid or not, tropical watches and warnings will be issued. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/178/ (link to Rex Block definition)

We just finished lifting our house 11 feet in the air from Sandy. The towns are packed with tourists and I'm floored they haven't even issued voluntary Evacs yet. Since Sandy, the flooding is crazy and some areas still don't have dunes. My gut is telling me this isn't going to end well.

Did those people in Margate lose their fight to stop dunes from being built? I hope they did. That was a ridiculous court battle.

I'm not sure. I'm a little north of there about 1/2 mile from where coaster went in the ocean on a little island between the mainland and barriers. Most places are still struggling with dunes,not being rebuilt because of selfish easement holdouts.

[Happy Pelican]

Barrier islands along the Jersey shore are filling with people and barely a peep about this storm from local officials... Jersey Shore Hurricane News is doing everything to get the word out but people really aren't listening.

Not a peep about it here either! I talked to my buddy about this as he has access to talking to the DPW of the village I used to live in, he had absolutely no clue, but since I talked to him he is now talking to them and they are making preparations, but that is only one minuscule village on the South Shore of LI, this is going to be one heck of a storm if people are really this unprepared, although I do think the newly issued TS Watch is starting to wake people up a bit

Christie needs to hold a press conference but I'm telling you, the local town officials are more concerned with holiday weekend revenue. They're going to wait until the last second to pull the trigger.

[Soonercane]

Barrier islands along the Jersey shore are filling with people and barely a peep about this storm from local officials... Jersey Shore Hurricane News is doing everything to get the word out but people really aren't listening.

Not a peep about it here either! I talked to my buddy about this as he has access to talking to the DPW of the village I used to live in, he had absolutely no clue, but since I talked to him he is now talking to them and they are making preparations, but that is only one minuscule village on the South Shore of LI, this is going to be one heck of a storm if people are really this unprepared, although I do think the newly issued TS Watch is starting to wake people up a bit

Christie needs to hold a press conference but I'm telling you, the local town officials are more concerned with holiday weekend revenue. They're going to wait until the last second to pull the trigger.

I agree, no need to panic yet in the mid-atlantic... lots of uncertainty wouldn't want to do unnecessary economic harm.

[mitchell]

Interesting...might regain hurricane strength as it stalls.

[znel52]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

It's easy to see the NE movement here. Maybe there was a slight wobble east but the overall motion remains NE. This storm is not coming off of land any sooner and will be close to right in line with the center of the NHC track.

[CrazyC83]

So what are the odds of this becoming a Hurricane once it gets back over the Atlantic in the next 12 to 24 hours since it hasn't lost any of its shape at all.

I'd say it is likely.

[NJWxHurricane]

Barrier islands along the Jersey shore are filling with people and barely a peep about this storm from local officials... Jersey Shore Hurricane News is doing everything to get the word out but people really aren't listening.

Agreed

[LarryWx]

The track through GA and going into SC now has been almost right on the forecast. Excellent job, NHC!

We're still getting strong gusts although the highest may be starting to taper just a little bit. There are now 47,000 customers in Chatham county alone, which is the highest for the storm so far.

[Blinhart]

What are the water temps around New Jersey and New York? Are they warm enough to support a Cat 1 maybe even a Cat 2? This system is still getting plenty of energy getting fed into it from a far distance (GoM and Caribbean) so there is no reason other than the little of land interaction for this to weaken much.

[JtSmarts]

Ugh lights starting to blink now. Very heavy rains and some strong gusts right now.

[jlauderdal]

Barrier islands along the Jersey shore are filling with people and barely a peep about this storm from local officials... Jersey Shore Hurricane News is doing everything to get the word out but people really aren't listening.

Not a peep about it here either! I talked to my buddy about this as he has access to talking to the DPW of the village I used to live in, he had absolutely no clue, but since I talked to him he is now talking to them and they are making preparations, but that is only one minuscule village on the South Shore of LI, this is going to be one heck of a storm if people are really this unprepared, although I do think the newly issued TS Watch is starting to wake people up a bit

Christie needs to hold a press conference but I'm telling you, the local town officials are more concerned with holiday weekend revenue. They're going to wait until the last second to pull the trigger.

listen to nhc and this board(in most cases)...no skin in the game for revenue

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I have a question about the stall, and it's effects on the Jersey Shore and Long Island for the pro mets. If the NHC forecast track verifies, and it is so far, what is the earliest day that the Jersey Shore/LI will start feeling the effects of the storm in wind, rain, and wave action?

[terstorm1012]

What are the water temps around New Jersey and New York? Are they warm enough to support a Cat 1 maybe even a Cat 2? This system is still getting plenty of energy getting fed into it from a far distance (GoM and Caribbean) so there is no reason other than the little of land interaction for this to weaken much.

they are warm, especially the gulf stream.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Water temps up the coast as of today

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/satl.html

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html

They are plenty warm up to Long Island (and the cape in MA)

[otterlyspicey]

My plan was to leave DC tomorrow afternoon after work and head to the Delaware or Jersey Shore to chase Hermine. However I was reminded of plans I had already made for Saturday night in DC. So now the plan is to leave around 9am Sunday to head to the beach. Now, I've been staring at all the new models and it seems I would be arriving when about 30% of the storm is over. I am wondering/hoping maybe there's a chance she slows down so I can get up there in time to see it go from "calm" to tropical storm.

[johngaltfla]

Well, the tree service said the lightning strike damaged the tree so bad I lose a 100 year old oak. Nertz. Luckily it missed my house by 4 feet when the big 30 foot section fell.

So for those without power reading this (j/k) need some firewood?

Good luck to you folks on the Atlantic seaboard, I hope that there isn't a last minute panic because Hermine became powerful FAST and if she gets more than a day over the Gulf Stream, I fear she'll crank up rapidly!

[Nimbus]

Well, the tree service said the lightning strike damaged the tree so bad I lose a 100 year old oak. Nertz. Luckily it missed my house by 4 feet when the big 30 foot section fell.

So for those without power reading this (j/k) need some firewood?

Good luck to you folks on the Atlantic seaboard, I hope that there isn't a last minute panic because Hermine became powerful FAST and if she gets more than a day over the Gulf Stream, I fear she'll crank up rapidly!

Top of a tree broke off down the street from me during a morning squall in Palm Harbor. The lines just slapped and popped the transformer. I called and the Duke truck came out and reset the transformer. Probably about half the outages can be resolved quickly that way without needing line repairs.

The likelihood that a stalled Hermine will not be much worse than a winter storm off Jersey is probably a safe bet, but that small chance that it will intensify and come back ashore certainly is worrisome.

[ncbird]

First Tornado Warning just issued for me here in NC. Gonna be a long night.

[seahawkjd]

What county is the warning for?

[ncbird]

What county is the warning for?

Not sure all the counties. As soon as they said mine I was out the door to bring in my 4 legged family members. I do know Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde, Jones, Onslow, and Pamlico are under a watch until midnight.