2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[SouthFLTropics]

Did anyone notice the little vort on the 18z GFS that spins up in about 4 to 5 days off of an old frontal boundary in the Atlantic? The GFS steers it west into East Florida. Not very strong but first time I've seen the feature.

[centuryv58]

Nothing to worry about because magic trough is back.

No, its not really back.

[centuryv58]

Is this guy anti hurricane? lol. He always tweets negative stuff

If the information that he is tweeting is accurate, meaning it's based on what models are showing. how can he be anti-hurricane? I don't follow.

Dr. Phil had called for a less active ATL and MDR and had a lower number of storms for the past two years than actually happened. The odds, from other ProMets, seem against his assessment again this year. I do not think he is anti hurricane as that is what his job at CSU. He doesn't want to end up doing stand ups for TWC

[centuryv58]

Is this guy anti hurricane? lol. He always tweets negative stuff

If the information that he is tweeting is accurate, meaning it's based on what models are showing. how can he be anti-hurricane? I don't follow.

Dr. Phil had called for a less active ATL and MDR and had a lower number of storms for the past two years than actually happened. The odds, from other ProMets, seem against his assessment again this year. I do not think he is anti hurricane as that is what his job is at CSU. He doesn't want to end up doing stand ups for TWC

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be trying to spin up a low from the wave that moved off the African coast both on the northern part and southern part, and if the southern part should develop it would probably find land

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF going with development of the wave that rolls off Africa on Labor Day. I think that is 3 runs in a row with timeframe coming in.

[LarryWx]

The ECMWF going with development of the wave that rolls off Africa on Labor Day. I think that is 3 runs in a row with timeframe coming in.

That will need to be watched as the CV/MDR season peak for the genesis of storms that make it to 75W lasts through about September 11 and it appears the MJO will be mainly within the circle, which is a relatively favorable position for September TC geneses.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF has this system heading roughly west at 240 hours when the run ends:

[blp]

The ECMWF going with development of the wave that rolls off Africa on Labor Day. I think that is 3 runs in a row with timeframe coming in.

The GFS also to some degree is trending on the last several runs just shows a much weaker high allowing for the systems to recurve out.

Years back that consistency on the Euro was a strong signal. Now with all the phantoms it is hard to latch onto a trend.

We need to go back to just watching things develop first and then see what the models show.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET continues to like the wave that rolls off Africa on Labor Day

[USTropics]

12z run of ensembles are showing increasing probability of TC genesis in 5 days from this wave (yesterdays ensemble runs showed only 30% probability of TC genesis):

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS on board with the wave that will exit Africa on Labor Day. 10-day image below as it moves through the Southern Lesser Antilles.

[tolakram]

2 weeks ago he posted something similar and the GFS was wrong.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/771857607271124992

[centuryv58]

2 weeks ago he posted something similar and the GFS was wrong.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/771857607271124992

I will not counter to anything Dr. Phil tweets, but his tweets sometimes cannot convey his forecast limitations due to the 149 character limit. These are more like headlines, but you should also read the story below too.

[toad strangler]

18Z GFS on board with the wave that will exit Africa on Labor Day. 10-day image below as it moves through the Southern Lesser Antilles.

0z Euro concurs through 192 hours and brings a very modest wave with a decent little vort signature into the middle of the trops.

[toad strangler]

0z Euro at 240 hours shows a decided turn to the NW with this wave into a weakness at the west end of a large dome of HP. Arrow represents direction.

[tolakram]

I will not counter to anything Dr. Phil tweets, but his tweets sometimes cannot convey his forecast limitations due to the 149 character limit. These are more like headlines, but you should also read the story below too.

I don't think there is anything to counter, he is simply tweeting what a model is saying. Too many people read something into these tweets. Last time someone thought he was tweeting to support his forecast of below normal activity, which I didn't agree with. His current 2 week forecast is for normal activity so if the GFS is right the forecast my bust.

[centuryv58]

I will not counter to anything Dr. Phil tweets, but his tweets sometimes cannot convey his forecast limitations due to the 149 character limit. These are more like headlines, but you should also read the story below too.

I don't think there is anything to counter, he is simply tweeting what a model is saying. Too many people read something into these tweets. Last time someone thought he was tweeting to support his forecast of below normal activity, which I didn't agree with. His current 2 week forecast is for normal activity so if the GFS is right the forecast my bust.

That's the trouble with tweeting--putting things out there with not much context available.

[toad strangler]

I will not counter to anything Dr. Phil tweets, but his tweets sometimes cannot convey his forecast limitations due to the 149 character limit. These are more like headlines, but you should also read the story below too.

I don't think there is anything to counter, he is simply tweeting what a model is saying. Too many people read something into these tweets. Last time someone thought he was tweeting to support his forecast of below normal activity, which I didn't agree with. His current 2 week forecast is for normal activity so if the GFS is right the forecast my bust.

That's the trouble with tweeting--putting things out there with not much context available.

A savvy tweeter would leave a link to the meat of disco. Links don't cost you much IRT characters in a tweet.

[toad strangler]

6z GFS


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