ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

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drezee
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#261 Postby drezee » Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:26 pm

Looks just like Iris from 1995...Iris was a little south of 92L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#262 Postby colbroe » Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:29 pm

Looks like 92l is exploding over Barbados lots of rain and thunder,looking at it as it approaches it getting larger .
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#263 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:39 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
GCANE wrote:This may be more than just shear-induced convection.

Cloud tops getting colder and a 1C warm core.

what you mean?


Usually as a wave interacts with an ULL, most of the NW convection is from shear.
However, shear-induced convection in the tropics is relatively short lived.
It can't last long enough to generate a warm core, especially at 1C; and cloud tops usually don't get that cold.
IMHO, the convection is more indicative of a surface low.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#264 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:48 pm

low level inflow has increased today
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#265 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:58 pm

Alyono wrote:low level inflow has increased today


Yes it has. Very noticeable inflow from the ITCZ this afternoon via zoomed visible imagery. Still moving too quickly and obstacles ahead in the Eastern Caribbean, but I will not be surprised to see conditions become more favorable as this disturbance slows down later next week in the Western Caribbean. Worth monitoring for potential TC genesis somewhere S of Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#266 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:02 pm

We're currently getting light rain (becoming heavier as I type) with thunder (getting louder as I type).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#267 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:11 pm

So how does steering look over the next 5 days? Stay low, gom, or brought north?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#268 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:38 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#269 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:15 pm

abajan wrote:Judging from the satellite loops, I think the weather being forecast for Barbados is more likely to occur in the islands to its northwest, especially the Leewards. Be ready, Gustywind! :D

Thanks to you :) , good catch. Yellow alert have been activated for Guadeloupe and Martinica for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Yes Abajan, we stay focus on 92L in case of, bear watching mode.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#270 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:16 pm

This is trying to get better organized this evening, if that deeper convection persists and grows lookout!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#271 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:24 pm

Gustywind wrote:
abajan wrote:Judging from the satellite loops, I think the weather being forecast for Barbados is more likely to occur in the islands to its northwest, especially the Leewards. Be ready, Gustywind! :D

Thanks to you :) , good catch. Yellow alert have been activated for Guadeloupe and Martinica for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Yes Abajan, we stay focus on 92L in case of, bear watching mode.

Excuse me since 6PM should i say :eek: ORANGE alert for Guadeloupe and even Martinica too. Looks like juicy amount of water are expected till Monday night in these both island especially Guadeloupe. We will see. Keep an eye on this one islander! I will keep you informed my friends if anything happens.
Regards.
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:rarrow: http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#272 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:49 pm

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure located
about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While a
recent buoy observation east of the islands indicates that the wave
is producing winds just below tropical storm force, environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive for any additional
development of this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds,
possibly to tropical storm force, are expected over portions of the
Lesser Antilles overnight and continuing through Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#273 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:57 pm

Saved loop

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#274 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:00 pm

"marginally conducive"?
If the system is able to remain as a sharp wave through the Caribbean the models will have to do something with it in the gulf. Early Cmc runs had it tracking over Lake Pontchartrain.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#275 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:19 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#276 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:26 pm

NHCs probs are entirely model driven it appears
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#277 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:30 pm

Currently projected to miss Hispaniola and head towards the western Caribbean (an area with a reputation for producing monster canes)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#278 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:31 pm

Cycloneye do you have the latest of the Best Track please? Thanks :).
Looks like a nice ball of convection is forming near 14,9W 54, 55W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#279 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:33 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlc with an axis
extending from 20N54W to a 1009 mb low near 14N54W to 07N54W,
moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a broad area of
high TPW. Divergent upper-level winds are supporting numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection from 13N to 17N between
51W to 58W. Satellite-derived wind data show the pres gradient
on the N side of the wave is also generating a broad area of
fresh to strong NE to E winds from 13N to 20N between 45W and
60W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#280 Postby Bailey1777 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:34 pm

Someone educate me please...is the windsat based on surface winds?
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