ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Bailey1777]

Also, and I would like a pro to reply please...how accurate is future shear forecasting?

[Christiana]

This one appears to be moving off quickly to the west, is there any reason it won't keep doing that? I have seen it posted earlier in this thread that this one, should it survive any shear and other obstacles to development ahead, may head toward the GOM, what will turn it that way? What should I watch for as I follow this topic? Thanks in advance to anyone who replies. Like some others from my area have posted earlier in this topic, this one is making me really uneasy for some reason.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 13.6°N 56.2°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[abajan]

Someone educate me please...is the windsat based on surface winds?

To my knowledge, yes. But the pros would be better able to answer this.

[Hurricane Andrew]

My personal development take, at the moment, would be as follows.
2 days: 20%
5 days: 60%
Overall: 90%

[gatorcane]

The GFS moves an upper anti-cyclone in tandem with 92L as it moves westward through the Caribbean so upper-level winds look favorable. The GFS shows a lot of dry air around the Caribbean which would go against development but if you look at the GFS from several days ago as far as what it was showing now - it was showing dry air and not much convection for this wave. But as you can see the GFS didn't model things properly.

I wonder if the models are not handling the impact of dry air on this wave properly in that they are thinking there is enough dry air to thwart development?

[Bailey1777]

Looks pretty moist out there to me. It seems to be consolidating and maintaining heavy storms.doesn't seem sick like so many tc we've seen recently. Of course things can and will change.

[Bailey1777]

Ok I take that back, after checking out the water vapor that is a large slot of dry air dropping in front of it..guess we'll have to see......as usual......

[GeneratorPower]

Entirely possible that the NHC is a little preoccupied with Hermine headed for the Northeast US. This wave won't get much analysis time, and the 20% 48 hour probability has it covered just in case of quick development.

[chaser1]

Was expecting a larger surge in convection during the evening but does appear to be taking on a bit more of a twist. Other factor here is that this is coming into the islands at least a couple of degrees further north than I was expecting. GFS's capacity to perhaps drag the primary LLC over the islands would be at least one contributing factor towards that model's tepid prospects of developing. Of course that all changes depending on whether 92L can maintain a true westward motion from this point. Much more gain of latitude and it'll result in a 2 night/3 day all expenses paid Dominican Republic land excursion

[floridasun78]

nhc having it go toward western Caribbean keeping going all the way west

[abajan]

[Kazmit]

The track the NHC predicts looks a bit like Earl.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles is
producing a large area of cloudiness and showers and winds to near
tropical storm force. Upper-level winds are not expected to be
conducive for significant development of this disturbance while it
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph through the Caribbean Sea this week.
Regardless of whether or not development occurs, this wave will
produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
Lesser Antilles through early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Dean4Storms]

I swear this looks like it is trying to form an LLC near 15N 58.5W

[Dean4Storms]

There is LL cumulus on the SW Edge of the ball of convection streaming west toward the convective mass. Anyone else seeing it, you have to zoom.

[LarryWx]

^I see what you're talking about but obviously am no expert as to whether or not this is significant as regards future development chances. Anyone have a closeup visible loop?

[Emmett_Brown]

Should be passing through some islands later today, interested to see if there are any W winds to the south of the convective ball

[abajan]

[LENNY]

now since 1hour gusty winds 60 90 Km/h In Sout of Guadeloupe,