Change in storms retired - or why you're not safe after Hermine

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Change in storms retired - or why you're not safe after Hermine

#1 Postby StrongWind » Sun Sep 04, 2016 8:17 am

I took a look at retired hurricane names and noticed that in recent decades names have been retired from much deeper in the roster than previously.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/retired.asp?MR=1

1954 - 1994 38 retired of which 2 were "I" storms and 3 were "J" or later.
1995 - 2015 39 retired of which 6 were "I" storms and 19 were "J" or later.

So pre-1995 of 38 storms only 13% of names retired started with "I" or later. 1995 and on, that increased to 64% of the 39 retired names. Storms are also being retired at a rate that's 2 times faster lately - 39 in twenty years vs 38 in forty.
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Re: Change in storms retired - or why you're not safe after Hermine

#2 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:02 am

StrongWind wrote:I took a look at retired hurricane names and noticed that in recent decades names have been retired from much deeper in the roster than previously.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/retired.asp?MR=1

1954 - 1994 38 retired of which 2 were "I" storms and 3 were "J" or later.
1995 - 2015 39 retired of which 6 were "I" storms and 19 were "J" or later.

So pre-1995 of 38 storms only 13% of names retired started with "I" or later. 1995 and on, that increased to 64% of the 39 retired names. Storms are also being retired at a rate that's 2 times faster lately - 39 in twenty years vs 38 in forty.


A factor is that the coastal areas have had big population gains. More and more of them (even just cat 1 and 2) are becoming billion dollar disasters. Now any hurricane striking a US coast even minimal can be billion dollar+ disaster. And of course with more people the more likely there are to be casualties.
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Re: Change in storms retired - or why you're not safe after Hermine

#3 Postby StrongWind » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:22 am

Ntxw wrote:
StrongWind wrote:I took a look at retired hurricane names and noticed that in recent decades names have been retired from much deeper in the roster than previously.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/retired.asp?MR=1

1954 - 1994 38 retired of which 2 were "I" storms and 3 were "J" or later.
1995 - 2015 39 retired of which 6 were "I" storms and 19 were "J" or later.

So pre-1995 of 38 storms only 13% of names retired started with "I" or later. 1995 and on, that increased to 64% of the 39 retired names. Storms are also being retired at a rate that's 2 times faster lately - 39 in twenty years vs 38 in forty.


A factor is that the coastal areas have had big population gains. More and more of them (even just cat 1 and 2) are becoming billion dollar disasters. Now any hurricane striking a US coast even minimal can be billion dollar+ disaster. And of course with more people the more likely there are to be casualties.


That could be a factor in why more storm names are being retired. However, it would affect storms across the board and wouldn't account for the large percentage skew toward later names.
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Re: Change in storms retired - or why you're not safe after Hermine

#4 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:46 am

With better observations and qualifications more systems are also getting named both tropics and high latitudes with then tandem of the reason above. In the deep past a hurricane like Alex in January may have gone undetected, or a weak swirl. Obs and satellite skill has greatly improved especially since the 1990s. So we are likely digging deeper than in the past with names. One or two may not seem much but over decades it can be a lot. Perhaps this is a reason?
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Re: Change in storms retired - or why you're not safe after Hermine

#5 Postby StrongWind » Sun Sep 04, 2016 11:09 am

Ntxw wrote:With better observations and qualifications more systems are also getting named both tropics and high latitudes with then tandem of the reason above. In the deep past a hurricane like Alex in January may have gone undetected, or a weak swirl. Obs and satellite skill has greatly improved especially since the 1990s. So we are likely digging deeper than in the past with names. One or two may not seem much but over decades it can be a lot. Perhaps this is a reason?


Possibly but if you look at the retired name list and the number of named storms per year (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html) it's almost like a switch was thrown right around 1995. More statistics: 1954-94 387 named storms = avg 9.4/yr. 1995-2005 307 named storms = 14.6/yr.
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