ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[abajan]

now since 1hour gusty winds 60 90 Km/h In Sout of Guadeloupe,

Did you say 60 to 90 Km/h? That's 38 to 56 mph! Wow!

[msbee]

Gustywind, what are the current weather conditions in Guadeloupe?
The radar shows precip passing right over you
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

[abajan]

Gustywind, what are the current weather conditions in Guadeloupe?
The radar shows precip passing right over you
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

LENNY who's also in Guadeloupe states that the south of the island is getting gusts up to 56 mph.

[cycloneye]

Observation from Dominica has sustained wind up to 35 mph with gust to 55 mph.Wow

[tanguy97]

Now in Guadeloupe dark sky steady rain with some gusts. More windy in the South, gust to 100 klm in Marie galante

['CaneFreak]

Looks rather impressive on Visible this morning. When combined with the observations above, they may bump probabilities up at the next TWO.

[northjaxpro]

Nice convective burst late this morning approaching the islands. I would be interested in seeing the most recent ASCAT pass. It may be in the first stages of trying to close off a surface circulation.

[cycloneye]

I see from loop above feeder streams from the south and southwest and that is a good sign.

[Medtronic15]

Nice convective burst late this morning approaching the islands. I would be interested in seeing the most recent ASCAT pass. It may be in the first stages of trying to close off a surface circulation.

Well, well

[ConvergenceZone]

Based upon the track and steering currents, it appears that even if this does develop, it's Mexico bound.

[SoupBone]

Why are they thinking a BoC bound system now? For days it was showing a Caribbean runner.

['CaneFreak]

My best guess based on visible imagery as to where the LLC may be developing is around 16N and 59W. Looks to be moving WNW right now.

[GeneratorPower]

Why are they thinking a BoC bound system now? For days it was showing a Caribbean runner.

Latest GFS ensembles show it taking a NW turn south of Puerto Rico.

[Dean4Storms]

Based upon the track and steering currents, it appears that even if this does develop, it's Mexico bound.

If it remains unorganized but if it deepens and becomes a TC it would likely step more poleward into the ridge and gain latitude. All depends on development!

[gatorcane]

Looking at the imagery above, I see noticeable spin under the convection, good inflow, and maybe some hints it might be trying to gain a little latitude.

[Fego]

A lot of 30 and 40s mph gusts reported from the islands.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=observations01

[gatorcane]

Based upon the track and steering currents, it appears that even if this does develop, it's Mexico bound.

If it remains unorganized but if it deepens and becomes a TC it would likely step more poleward into the ridge and gain latitude. All depends on development!

Exactly, if this system managed to deepen somewhat in the Caribbean it could get pulled more NW due to a large weakness over the SW Atlantic from Hermine.

In fact latest 12Z NAVGEM shows this system gaining some latitude and moving over Haiti/Eastern Cuba now instead of prior runs where it showed a shallow feature heading west through the Caribbean toward the Yucatan.

[SouthDadeFish]

Barbados is now reporting SW winds. At the moment, there appears to only be a strong surface convergence axis, but with sustained convection a LLC may attempt to form. Regardless, the islands can expect some pretty gusts winds in the squalls associated with 92L. The problem for 92L is that it's approaching a strong shear axis associated with an upper-tropospheric trough off to its NW. Chances are the shear associated with the upper-level trough will prevent TC genesis in the short-term.

['CaneFreak]

Correct though that trough and associated shear axis is moving westward as well so if it can manage to move at the same speed it might be ok but that is doubtful. It will have to run into it at some point.

Barbados is now reporting SW winds. At the moment, there appears to only be a strong surface convergence axis, but with sustained convection a LLC may attempt to form. Regardless, the islands can expect some pretty gusts winds in the squalls associated with 92L. The problem for 92L is that it's approaching a strong shear axis associated with an upper-tropospheric trough off to its NW. Chances are the shear associated with the upper-level trough will prevent TC genesis in the short-term.

[gatorcane]

But that upper-tropospheric trough off to its NW is also moving west as can be seen on WV loop imagery plus the GFS shows the shear remaining just to the west of this wave as the wave traverses west through the Caribbean. I can only think that the GFS just thinks there is enough dry and stable air to keep this from developing.