2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[toad strangler]

6z GFS

[xcool22]

not going happen imo


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[toad strangler]

not going happen imo

Well of course 384 hour modeling almost never verify. What it IS though, is a signal.

[centuryv58]

not going happen imo

Well of course 384 hour modeling almost never verify. What it IS though, is a signal.

yep..

Sure is. A real signal.

[toad strangler]

12z GEM has this too. Already moving NW in this snapshot.

[/quote][/quote]

[toad strangler]

Geez, GEM is spinning stuff up all over the place including a deep cane in the W GOM.

[toad strangler]

And the GFS also has multiple storms in fantasy range. I guess what we can take from these runs today is that the tropics will be busy mid to late September.

[gatorcane]

12Z EC with development of the wave to move off Africa in two days. Run is out to 168 hours so far. It is very consistent with this.

[centuryv58]

12Z EC with development of the wave to move off Africa in two days. Run is out to 168 hours so far. It is very consistent with this.

And Weatherbell (JB) is posting (not tweeting) a detailed explanation of the favorable MJO and several storm possibilities in the next several weeks in the MDR and Caribbean and near FL.

[toad strangler]

12Z EC with development of the wave to move off Africa in two days. Run is out to 168 hours so far. It is very consistent with this.

Through 216

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And the GFS also has multiple storms in fantasy range. I guess what we can take from these runs today is that the tropics will be busy mid to late September.

Or we can take from it just what it is, pure fantasy. Just because they show it now does not mean things will be busy in two weeks.

[MetroMike]

And the GFS also has multiple storms in fantasy range. I guess what we can take from these runs today is that the tropics will be busy mid to late September.

Or we can take from it just what it is, pure fantasy. Just because they show it now does not mean things will be busy in two weeks.

Well yes but it could still be busy, but not with these solutions as they stand now. But it shows the set-up should be favorable for systems to develop.

[toad strangler]

And the GFS also has multiple storms in fantasy range. I guess what we can take from these runs today is that the tropics will be busy mid to late September.

Or we can take from it just what it is, pure fantasy. Just because they show it now does not mean things will be busy in two weeks.

that would be a contradiction to nearly everything I have been seeing and reading. I guess we all see things differently..

[toad strangler]

And the GFS also has multiple storms in fantasy range. I guess what we can take from these runs today is that the tropics will be busy mid to late September.

Or we can take from it just what it is, pure fantasy. Just because they show it now does not mean things will be busy in two weeks.

Well yes but it could still be busy, but not with these solutions as they stand now. But it shows the set-up should be favorable for systems to develop.

This was my point. Thx

[MetroMike]

18z makes it even stronger here

[Alyono]

latest MU has one likely phantom in the western Caribbean. Other than that, nothing through 16 days

[blp]

latest MU has one likely phantom in the western Caribbean. Other than that, nothing through 16 days

Yeah the Euro is weaker on the first wave and Ukmet is also much weaker. Conditions are still not right it appears in the MDR despite being in the heart of the season. The models have had a hard time this year with all of them showing phantom development on consecutive runs only to lose it. What is interesting is they all seem to latch on at the same time. So it is not like the old days when you had one model out there showing a phantom.

Overall I think this year the GFS has been good at seeing this weakening first and then the others follow. So let's see if the 12z runs drop it.

[jason1912]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_9.png

[tolakram]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016090412/ecmwf_mslpa_atl_9.png

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Animated 12Z Euro run. 3 storms, including something that spins up and heads into La.

[cycloneye]

Is that GOM thing 92L?