ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[SapphireSea]

there is definitely a sharp wave axis and convection along it. convection must maintain to counter the low level surge. we all know what happens in the eastern carrib the low level flow increases and unless the overall wave is large or the circ is already established it will not develop. NHC is not going to give it good chances in a statistically unlikely area .

Hi Aric. So, Should we expect the big blob to disappear any time soon unless a LLC is established?

As of this writing the blob is dying out. Radar images are telling. Thing is getting rocked by TUTT and Low to Mid shear. Not even that sharp of a wave.

[abajan]

[abajan]

Looks like Dominica got quite a bit of overnight rain from 92L:



If it did, many Dominicans would have had flashbacks of last years disastrous flood caused by Erika.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

A tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea. The wave extends
from 10N to 19N with axis near 61W, moving W at 15 kt within the
last 24 hours. A 1009 mb center of low pressure is associated
with the wave, which is located near 15N61W and is expected to
move NW to near 16N66W in less than 24 hours. Abundant moisture
in the vicinity of the wave along with a diffluent environment
aloft support heavy showers and isolated tstms from 14N to 18N
between 60W and 63W. A gale warning is in effect for the Leeward
Islands and adjacent waters through later this morning.

[O Town]

Looks like a deflating balloon. lol



No change in shear in front of this.

[LarryWx]

This is looking significantly less organized to me than it appeared yesterday per the latest satellite loops.

[abajan]

This is looking significantly less organized to me than it appeared yesterday per the latest satellite loops.

Yep. They've also lowered formation chances on the latest TWO to 10% and 20% for the 2 and 5-day outlooks respectively.

[TheStormExpert]

Down to 10%/20% @ 8am TWO.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located over eastern Caribbean have decreased since yesterday.
Although strong winds, possibly to tropical storm force, could still
be occurring in association with this system, development of the
wave is unlikely while it moves westward across the Caribbean Sea
this week. This disturbance could continue to produce periods of
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Lesser
Antilles early today, and over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later
today and on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[abajan]

[Kazmit]

This will basically be a weaker Earl if it stays in the southern part of the cone. If it goes more north, it has a better chance of becoming something stronger in the Gulf after it crosses the Yucatan.

[Dean4Storms]

Yes, the shear got this one.

[otowntiger]

Yawn. Next.

[cajungal]

It was looking great last night. And I wake up this morning and it looks like crap. Things can't even get going in almost the peak of the season. Thought finally something interesting and now things will be boring once again.

[SoupBone]

[quote="abajan"][/quote]


Still don't understand that track. It would have to start moving nearly due west.

[LarryWx]

Kudos to the model consensus of no tropical development near the Lesser Antilles. Also, the 0Z CMC is the first CMC run in a full week (yes, a full week as I just checked old runs) that doesn't have a TC from this.

[cajungal]

Kudos to the model consensus of no tropical development near the Lesser Antilles. Also, the 0Z CMC is the first CMC run in a full week (yes, a full week as I just checked old runs) that doesn't have a TC from this.

So all the models completely dropped it? No development at all?

[LarryWx]

Kudos to the model consensus of no tropical development near the Lesser Antilles. Also, the 0Z CMC is the first CMC run in a full week (yes, a full week as I just checked old runs) that doesn't have a TC from this.

So all the models completely dropped it? No development at all?

None of the latest CMC, GFS, Euro, NAVGEM, JMA, and (I think) UKMET develop it into a TC. The CMC now just has it as a weak low after 12 straight runs developing it into a TC mainly further into the Caribbean.
By the way, I still see what may be a weak circulation from this at some level of the atmosphere near 16N, 64W per latest loops moving WNW. Anyone else see this?

[ConvergenceZone]

This one is toast!
NHC dropping chances to almost zero and like someone mentioned earlier, looks like a balloon that got the air let out of it. The shear ripped this one to shreds and lots of shear ahead of it remains. Another forum thread I can take off my watchlist until the next one develops.

[Steve]

Looks pretty good to me. I don't know if it will be a buried system or if it will take off more to the WC or Southern Gulf. But it looks like a wave anyone would be tracking.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[LarryWx]

Looks pretty good to me. I don't know if it will be a buried system or if it will take off more to the WC or Southern Gulf. But it looks like a wave anyone would be tracking.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Yeah, as even I said, there seems to be a weak circulation in the E Caribbean. However, it looks much less organized to others and myself vs yesterday. Of course, in reality, it may not have really been organized yesterday as that may have been an illusion. But it certainly looks less threatening than it looked yesterday.