Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 5:30 AM EDT

[ColdFront77]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JUAN LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN LOCATED ABOUT 1310 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND JUST NORTH OF HONDURAS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER
TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM JUAN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Aquawind]

Hmmm.. Kinda surprised the TWO even mentions the blob over FLA.. It did rain big time this morning..

Tampa NWS Discussion this AM

--SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)--
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR TODAY. THE ETA IS MUCH WETTER TODAY...KEEPING LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE E GULF. THE GFS
TRENDS DOWN PRECIP DURING MORNING AND AFTN...WHICH SEEMS TO FIT
CURRENT TRENDS. HOWEVER...THE GFS DEPICTION OF A LOW CENTER MOVING
FROM THE E GULF ACROSS THE N FA TODAY SEEMS A LITTLE STRONG. HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING...THEN TRENDED PRECIP DOWNWARD
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...STILL SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY...ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF COVERING MUCH OF THE E
U.S.. KEPT SCT/CHC POPS ALL NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE RELATIVELY LOW.
FOR SAT...DESPITE SHARPENING UPPER TROF OVER THE E U.S. AND SOME
WEAK UPPER ENERGY MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW...MODELS SHOWING
GENERALLY DOWNWARD MOTION WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LATEST
GUIDANCE POPS HAVE DROPPED TO 25-30%. GIVEN CURRENT FCST WAS FOR
LIKELY POPS...HAVE LOWERED TO CHC FOR NOW TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONTINUITY. BY SUN...SHARP UPPER TROF CONTINUES OVER THE E U.S.
WITH A SFC RIDGE OVER THE CENT US. MODELS IMPLYING A WEAK/SHALLOW SFC
FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE N FA BY LATE DAY...SHIFTING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE S FA. WILL GO ISOLD POPS N FA...AND SCT CENT
AND S FA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY GIVEN CLOUDS
AND PRECIP...AND LIKELY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUN.

--EXTENDED (MON-THURS)--
A TRICKY FORECAST LONG TERM AS WELL AS THE MODELS HAVE A BOUNDARY
THAT SITS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA THRU WED. GIVEN
THE STRONG LONGWAVE PATTERN FORECAST TO BE OVER US I PUT A BOUNDARY
NEAR OR S OF TAMPA AND PROVIDED FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH
DAY. I ALSO WENT WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF COOLER MIN TEMPS THEN GIVEN
BY MRF GUIDANCE.

FOR THURSDAY THE MRF HAS THE WHOLE REGION DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY...
BUT KEPT INHERITED FORECAST OF ISOLD TSTMS ALL OVER IN CASE THE MRF
DECIDES TO CHANGE ITS MIND ON THIS ONE.