ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Steve]

It looks good but I trust the NHC forecasters that they have tools that we dont have and that is why the probs are low 0

The probabilities are not exactly 0. They were at 20 percent going out 5 days by the NHC earlier today and a few models are trying to develop 92L as well.

It looks like the leading edges are hitting the boundary of that upper trough and meeting some shear. Notice the "almost V" linear shaped pattern with the northern line skirting the edge of the DR and the southern line active but with storms blowing off north. Might be some of the surge in the Easterlies and not directly 92L's wave itself, I'm not sure. I think 92L will have to produce new storms within that "V" area to maintain or else it's going to get lopped for the next few days.

[northjaxpro]

It looks good but I trust the NHC forecasters that they have tools that we dont have and that is why the probs are low 0

The probabilities are not exactly 0. They were at 20 percent going out 5 days by the NHC earlier today and a few models are trying to develop 92L as well.

It looks like the leading edges are hitting the boundary of that upper trough and meeting some shear. Notice the "almost V" linear shaped pattern with the northern line skirting the edge of the DR and the southern line active but with storms blowing off north. Might be some of the surge in the Easterlies and not directly 92L's wave itself, I'm not sure. I think 92L will have to produce new storms within that "V" area to maintain or else it's going to get lopped for the next few days.

Yeah, I think shear is still there, just stated that it may have lessened just a bit. I think the next 24 hours will tell the tale for me. This time tomorrow we should
know how or if shear really how impacts 92L and handle the shear axis just west of it. There is still a chance that maybe 92L may slow a bit more and not outrun the anticyclone ccurrentlu near it. We will see.

[Nimbus]

Land interaction with Hispaniola, hope they get the mud slide warnings out for the people with fragile habitats in the mountains.

[Emmett_Brown]

Radar image from San Juan shows a large area of precip, and some slight cyclonic turning (just a little) http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

So, I think there is a low chance of development for the next 2 days due to land interaction, but I think the wave is strong enough that there will be energy left over after it passes PR and HS, that something could pop later this week either in the SE Bahamas or near Jamaica, depending on where the left over energy consolidates.

[northjaxpro]

Land interaction with Hispaniola, hope they get the mud slide warnings out for the people with fragile habitats in the mountains.

Yeah, touched on this earlier. Either the shear or interaction with Hispaniola could finish off 92L. Should know soon enough.

[northjaxpro]

Radar image from San Juan shows a large area of precip, and some slight cyclonic turning (just a little) http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

So, I think there is a low chance of development for the next 2 days due to land interaction, but I think the wave is strong enough that there will be energy left over after it passes PR and HS, that something could pop later this week either in the SE Bahamas or near Jamaica, depending on where the left over energy consolidates.

I agree. I think whatever vorticity left over, should it gets.entangled with Hispaniola, I feel will be in the vicinity of the SE Bahamas. I think the system is moving w-nw.

[Bailey1777]

What does it tell us, if anything that 92 likes to fire up during the day and die out at night compared to 99/H who did the exact opposite until it finally developed?

[abajan]

Showers, tstorms , lightnings are back ...

Yes, and it looks like a lot more is on the way too! Notice how heavy convection is approaching from the west in this IR satellite loop:



Earlier, the bulk of the heavier stuff seemed to be heading to Puerto Rico, but now it seems like it's coming your way.
(Of course, forecasting where will get the heaviest rain and thunderstorms can be tricky, as the convection is constantly waxing and waning. It may well be Puerto Rico that gets the most of it, or even Hispaniola.)

[Gustywind]

Showers, tstorms , lightnings are back ...

Yes, and it looks like a lot more is on the way too! Notice how heavy convection is approaching from the west in this IR satellite loop:

http://i.imgur.com/texcqJD.gif

Earlier, the bulk of the heavier stuff seemed to be heading to Puerto Rico, but now it seems like it's coming your way.
(Of course, forecasting where will get the heaviest rain and thunderstorms can be tricky, as the convection is constantly waxing and waning. It may well be Puerto Rico that gets the most of it, or even Hispaniola.)

You're right Abajan, that's a challenge! I've just feel another robust line of tstorms for 30 minutes! Very strong tstorms and impressive lightning were sweeping my area. Looks like we're concerned with another heavy downpours.

[Blinhart]

Land interaction with Hispaniola, hope they get the mud slide warnings out for the people with fragile habitats in the mountains.

Yeah, touched on this earlier. Either the shear or interaction with Hispaniola could finish off 92L. Should know soon enough.

It could actually do the opposite and help make it a small organized system.

[Emmett_Brown]

I agree. Land doesn't typically stop waves. It prevents them from organizing, and it disrupts circulations. But the wave will still be there after the island. That's also why a lot of waves go on to develop in the Pacific.

[floridasun78]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Hermine, located off of the New England coast of the United
States.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located over eastern Caribbean. This disturbance
could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over
portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight
and on Tuesday. Development of the wave is unlikely while it moves
westward across the Caribbean Sea for the next few days.
Upper-level winds could become a little more conducive for
development when the wave approaches the Yucatan peninsula late
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016



A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea and extends
from 10N to 20N with axis along 65W/66W, moving W at 15 kt
within the last 24 hours. A 1009 mb center of low pressure is
associated with the wave, located near 15N66W and is expected to
move W to near 16N73W within 24 hours. Abundant moisture in the
vicinity of the wave along with a diffluent environment aloft
support scattered moderate to strong convection over the NE
Caribbean from 14N to 18N between 62W and 68W. San Juan radar
depicted a fairly well defined low to mid level circulation near
17N66W with scattered to numerous showers passing over and to
the south of the island with the potential for very heavy
rainfall into early Tuesday. The 12Z San Juan rawindsonde showed
winds of 40 kt at 800 to 825 mb.

[Gustywind]

05/2345 UTC 15.0N 69.1W T1.0/1.0 92L
05/1745 UTC 15.5N 66.8W T1.0/1.0 92L
05/1145 UTC 15.2N 65.3W T1.0/1.0 92L
05/0545 UTC 17.1N 62.2W T1.0/1.0 92L
04/2345 UTC 15.5N 60.2W T1.0/1.0 92L

[LarryWx]

05/2345 UTC 15.0N 69.1W T1.0/1.0 92L
05/1745 UTC 15.5N 66.8W T1.0/1.0 92L
05/1145 UTC 15.2N 65.3W T1.0/1.0 92L
05/0545 UTC 17.1N 62.2W T1.0/1.0 92L
04/2345 UTC 15.5N 60.2W T1.0/1.0 92L

IF these coordinates are accurate, this has still been moving 25 MPH!

[Gustywind]

Antigua's flooding related to 92L.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml


Flash Flooding in Antigua
•By Daniella Seepaul <daniellaseepaul at gmail.com>
•Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2016 18:26:04 -0400


Hi All,

Antigua have been experiencing alot of rain and alot of flash flooding.

Please be careful.

Regards,

Daniella Seepaul

[floridasun78]

Antigua's flooding related to 92L.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml


Flash Flooding in Antigua
•By Daniella Seepaul <daniellaseepaul at gmail.com>
•Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2016 18:26:04 -0400


Hi All,

Antigua have been experiencing alot of rain and alot of flash flooding.

Please be careful.

Regards,

Daniella Seepaul

hope get better their that bad weather islands getting

[Gustywind]

Numerous floodings, even muslides and much more in Guadeloupe. See pics below. 92L was a pretty vigorous and robust twave when it crosses Guadeloupe and the Leewards.

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... &sandbox=1

[Gustywind]

Antigua's flooding related to 92L.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml


Flash Flooding in Antigua
•By Daniella Seepaul <daniellaseepaul at gmail.com>
•Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2016 18:26:04 -0400


Hi All,

Antigua have been experiencing alot of rain and alot of flash flooding.

Please be careful.

Regards,

Daniella Seepaul

hope get better their that bad weather islands getting

I hope too my friend, thanks for the support . Rains have disminished since 6pm, he have brief periods of rain but looks like things could return to normal during the next couple hours.

[La Breeze]

Anyone think that this may be something significant in the Western GOM or BOC after it passes through the Yucatan?