Tropical Wave in East Atlantic - (Is INVEST 94L)

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave shows up
well in infrared satellite imagery and in observations from the
Cabo Verde Islands. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the
tropical wave near 17N. Convective precipitation: Isolated
moderate to locally strong from 10N to 18N between Africa and
30W.

[Gustywind]

Are you shy peeps? Nobody talks about that this twave? Let's see what the models do with this one in case of. We're in the peak now, let's see what could happens with this twave.


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016


A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with an axis
extending from 22N28W to a 1010 mb low near 18N28W to 10N28W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. The northeast portion of this wave is
interacting with African dust which is inhibiting convection.
Isolated moderate convection prevails east of the wave axis
between 21W-27W while scattered moderate convection is where the
wave interacts with the Monsoon Trough mainly south of 12N between
24W-32W.

[abajan]

It's location is amazingly clear to see on the following visual satellite loop:

[centuryv58]

Are you shy peeps? Nobody talks about that this twave? Let's see what the models do with this one in case of. We're in the peak now, let's see what could happens with this twave.


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016


A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with an axis
extending from 22N28W to a 1010 mb low near 18N28W to 10N28W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. The northeast portion of this wave is
interacting with African dust which is inhibiting convection.
Isolated moderate convection prevails east of the wave axis
between 21W-27W while scattered moderate convection is where the
wave interacts with the Monsoon Trough mainly south of 12N between
24W-32W.

Looks to be something to watch, after people recover from the 99L-Hermine watch.

[abajan]

There seems to be another swirl forming well to its SSE (around 12N).



Not sure if it's part of this or a separate feature.

[Gustywind]

There seems to be another swirl forming well to its SSE (around 12N).



Not sure if it's part of this or a separate feature.

Yes interresting catch Abajan. Let's see if the swirl SSE around 12 N is trying to do something.

[abajan]

There seems to be another swirl forming well to its SSE (around 12N).

http://i.imgur.com/3dw5zye.gif

Not sure if it's part of this or a separate feature.

Yes interresting catch Abajan. Let's see if the swirl SSE around 12 N is trying to do something.

Seems like it is!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

... A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is expected to
form several hundred miles southwest or west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands late this week. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for slow development of this system after that time while
the system moves west-northwestward into the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent



Could this be 93L forming?

[northjaxpro]

Well considering that we are in the peak time of monitoring the long Cape Verde trackers, I am expecting this to possibly become 93L. It will obviously depend on the enviroment ahead of course. We will see.

[Fego]

The TWO says: "A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is expected to
form several hundred miles southwest or west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands late this week."
Are we talking about the same area?

[abajan]

The TWO says: "A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is expected to
form several hundred miles southwest or west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands late this week."
Are we talking about the same area?

Yep. I know the thread's title is about the low at 17N but in my reply to Gustywind I mentioned an area near 12N and that's the one the TWO is about. I probably should've started a separate thread.

[Gustywind]

The TWO says: "A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is expected to
form several hundred miles southwest or west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands late this week."
Are we talking about the same area?

Yep. I know the thread's title is about the low at 17N but in my reply to Gustywind I mentioned an area near 12N and that's the one the TWO is about. I probably should've started a separate thread.

Title must be edited simply

[abajan]

The chance of formation within 5 days has risen to 30%, per the 2 PM TWO.

[Kazmit]

I see this becoming 93L soon, once the chances get to medium. I hope we see something out of this, and that it won't take forever to develop *cough cough, 99L*.

[abajan]

5-day outlook stays at 30%:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

... A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is expected to
form several hundred miles southwest or west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands late this week. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for slow development of this system after that time while
the system moves west-northwestward into the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Hurricaneman]

seems to be quite vigorous and has a good bit of convection, and does have some model support except the Euro so this may be a player in the long run as the 18zGFS develops this around 5 days from now as does the 0zGFS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[abajan]

5-Day Outlook Increased to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

... A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is expected to
form several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system after that time while it moves
west-northwestward into the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[abajan]

5-Day Outlook Up to 60%!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

... A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. A low pressure area
is expected to form in association with the wave several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system after that time while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[terstorm1012]

The Atlantic looks like it's ready to pop!

[SFLcane]

The Atlantic looks like it's ready to pop!

Yep..with plenty of nice fishies

[gatorcane]

The GFS track seems more west than what NHC is showing with that forecast shading. Latest 12Z seems like it is going to develop this, out through 126 hours so far.

Mods I think we want to update the title of this thread since I thought this was for the system that just moved off of Africa?