#498 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 07, 2016 5:08 am
There is still a long held premise which I have always held onto when observing tropical systems. Anytime there is considerable energy passing through some of the warmest ssts in the entire North Atlantic basin can never be completely written off until that energy(vorticity) has completely dissipated.
Ex 92L still has I vorticity at 500 and 700 mb levels and a. small anticyclone is still moving in tandum with the system. Shear and dry air are not currently hindering issues at this time. The biggest hindering factior right now with the system.is its interaction with Hispaniola. It is moving right on the northern coast of that island currently. However, considering that the system is still pulsating so to speak indicates a couple.of.things.
Dry air has been analyzed to eventually collapse this entity. However, this wave has been very vigorous on its w-nw trek across the Eastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows that the dry air at this time really has not yet debilitated this system. I still feel that with an anticyclone still nearby, if this system can get through the next 24 hours without being severely disrupted by Hispaniola, I am not by any means counting it out. There are obstacles still ahead, in particular possibly being influenced by Eastern Cuba's terrain I as the system heads w-nw.
But, as long as there is still sufficient energy moving w-nw towards the Florida Straits , NEVER, EVER write off a system until it the energy itself is completely dissipated.
So I will be content to remain in the extreme minority, which is fine by me (I am thinking the only one it seems) that thinks that 92L still has something left. Just.my two cents on a very early hump day!
Last edited by
northjaxpro on Wed Sep 07, 2016 5:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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