Tropical Wave in East Atlantic - (Is INVEST 94L)

[cycloneye]

A large but disorganized area of disturbed weather located about
500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Development of this system, if any, will likely be
slow to occur during the next couple of days. However, conditions
could become a little more favorable for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form early next week while this system
moves westward and then west-northwestward into the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[abajan]

... http://oi67.tinypic.com/102rtrb.jpg

The position of the X is much farther south than where I expected. Looks like most of the Lesser Antilles will soon be in the cone!

[Gustywind]

... http://oi67.tinypic.com/102rtrb.jpg

The position of the X is much farther south than where I expected. Looks like most of the Lesser Antilles will soon be in the cone!

Absolutely Abajan good catch especially if this system drift west and stays modest or shallow at least during the next 24-48H. Looks like the Leewards and Northern Leewards seem already pretty close to the cone given my untrained eyes . Something to keep an eye on.

[USTropics]

00z morning analysis shows all of the models indicating some type of development in the next 2-4 days. 95% of the ensembles and all of the operational runs take this north of the Leewards at this time.

NCEP Ensemble Probability of TC Genesis within the next 120 hours with ensemble plots (% has increased slightly):


UKMET appears to be the most aggressive, with development starting in 60 hours and a recurve well east of the Leewards:


GFS has two competing vorticities that keeps the system elongated through 96 hours. Track is east of the Leewards and similar to the UKMET but noticably weaker:


ECMWF brings this wave closest to the Leewards, but also moves it northeast without any direct impacts. Strength appears to be marginally stronger then the GFS but not as strong as the UKMET:


CMC also has pretty robust short term strengthening and a recurve well east of the Leewards (even more so then the UKMET). Also noting a seperating of energy from this wave that splits off and heads south towards the Leewards:


And lastly, the NAVGEM (because why not), is very similar to the ECMWF, perhaps a tad weaker with a close descent towards the Leewards but no direct impacts:

[cycloneye]

A large but disorganized area of disturbed weather located about
600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a
westward-moving tropical wave. Development of this system during
the next couple of days, if any, will likely be very slow. However,
conditions are forecast to become more favorable early next week,
and a tropical depression could form in the open central Atlantic
while the system moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[abajan]

Many of the islands are now in the cone!

[Alyono]

This is starting to organize. I'd give this an 80 percent chance of developing now. Structure is starting to come together

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2016

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 33W from 6N-
17N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is
embedded within a broad surge of moisture as seen on the Total
Precipitable Water Imagery. Small clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are within 210 nm either side of
the wave axis south of 16N.

[abajan]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2016

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 33W from 6N-
17N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is
embedded within a broad surge of moisture as seen on the Total
Precipitable Water Imagery. Small clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are within 210 nm either side of
the wave axis south of 16N.

That's about 23 mph, which is quite fast.

[Gustywind]

Many of the islands are now in the cone!

yes that's it. Whereas, if i 've read correctly the latest TWO this thing should move on a Westerly direction till Sunday before a presumed northwestward movement Monday as a possible DT. So that could mean that this feature may have more chances to move closer the Lesser Antilles... as the islands are more and more at each TWO in the cone
Hope that scenario won't happen because of we're a bit far from reality but we should my carib friends follow closely this system. I don't like this path honestly.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2016

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 33W from 6N-
17N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is
embedded within a broad surge of moisture as seen on the Total
Precipitable Water Imagery. Small clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are within 210 nm either side of
the wave axis south of 16N.

That's about 23 mph, which is quite fast.

Very fast is an euphemisma... a crazy driver do not tend to form too quickly IMO.

[SFLcane]

This is starting to organize. I'd give this an 80 percent chance of developing now. Structure is starting to come together

Why is it not an invest is beyond me..

[Gustywind]

Hey peeps can someone could post a pic related to this twave because of we speak without any support Thanks. Sure we will enjoy it my friends.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/773957409920327680

[Gustywind]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/773957409920327680

thanks to you.

[GeneratorPower]

This is starting to organize. I'd give this an 80 percent chance of developing now. Structure is starting to come together

Why is it not an invest is beyond me..

Customer satisfaction with the NHC Invest System is at an all-time low.

[cycloneye]

A large but disorganized area of disturbed weather located about
700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave. Any development of this
system will likely be slow to occur during the next couple of days.
However, conditions are forecast to become more favorable early next
week, and a tropical depression could form in the central Atlantic
while the system moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[abajan]

Islands no longer in the cone! Of course, it still bears watching.

[cycloneye]

Is INVEST 94L