ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
Regardless of whether or not it has a closed llc (which I believe it does), the convection is currently pathetic. Will be interesting to see how healthy it looks during dmax. Aside from the convection, it certainly has that look...
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
looks like it will be a micro system, those can ramp up quickly and also if shear is involved die quickly, just remember Danny last year
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
As a result of light winds caused by 93L, northern sections of Barbados have been getting heavy showers and thunderstorms and are in fact under a flood warning. The weather in the south is just the opposite. We've had brilliant sunshine for most of the day and it's hot with not a drop of rain!
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
Convection is starting to rebuild on the SW side of this.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
I haven't researched this yet but there seems to be a scenario where this gets trapped under a ridge and moves west over Florida. We just got 14" to 20" of rain and 8 to 10 feet of ocean from Hermine in Florida.
Thanks LarryWX, looks like it is currently under shear from the south so track should be weak and west till it misses that trough that 92L pulled down?
Thanks LarryWX, looks like it is currently under shear from the south so track should be weak and west till it misses that trough that 92L pulled down?
Last edited by Nimbus on Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
Nimbus wrote:I haven't researched this yet but there seems to be a scenario where this gets trapped under a ridge and moves west over Florida. We just got 14" to 20" of rain and 8 to 10 feet of ocean from Hermine in Florida.
Yes, IF this takes a southern enough route over the next 72 hours or so, it would not have an escape route and would possibly be forced into FL.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
LarryWx wrote:Convection is starting to rebuild on the SW side of this.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
LarryWx wrote:Nimbus wrote:I haven't researched this yet but there seems to be a scenario where this gets trapped under a ridge and moves west over Florida. We just got 14" to 20" of rain and 8 to 10 feet of ocean from Hermine in Florida.
Yes, IF this takes a southern enough route over the next 72 hours or so, it would not have an escape route and would possibly be forced into FL.
And it would also have a better chance of strengthening as it would not run into the unfavourable conditions north of 93L which the NHC mentions. Florida does not need another storm...
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
Sometimes these quick bloomers can be trouble - we shall see...
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
It's mooing WNW currently with convection trying to build back up. This may be the one to watch.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
So, now we at 12Z suddenly have two of the best tropical models hitting near Daytona Beach next week (albeit weakly as of these runs) vs having had zero CONUS hits from this by either of these two models prior to today's 12Z runs. Keeping in mind VERY warm SST's along this potential path, a favorable MJO within the circle, it being the heart of the active season, projections of a WNW path underneath a persistent upper high to its north (often a prescription for strengthening), and now two of the best models showing a FL hit, all bets are off as far as what next week will bring to the SE CONUS tropicalwise.
I was thinking 10% chance for development as of yesterday with only the CMC doing just that. Despite the CMC losing it, I'm increasing the chance to about 30% considering the current rather impressive structure along with the 12Z Euro and UKMET runs and the fact that the NHC now has it in its TWO.
I was thinking 10% chance for development as of yesterday with only the CMC doing just that. Despite the CMC losing it, I'm increasing the chance to about 30% considering the current rather impressive structure along with the 12Z Euro and UKMET runs and the fact that the NHC now has it in its TWO.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
Yeah definitely something to watch because you never know if a surprise is in store. If you go back to the NHC outlooks from when Joaquin was an invest last year, the initial NHC outlooks mentioned winds would be unfavorable for development with low percentage chances of development and we all know what happened. Not saying this will be another Joaquin but bears watching for the reasons Larry gave above.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
CMC did show a ridge building north of where 93l should be.
With Hermine remnants still in the vicinity off the SE coast its possible some of the models are confused.
With Hermine remnants still in the vicinity off the SE coast its possible some of the models are confused.
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
this getting alot weatherman in fl by surprise this was area was not even watch by nhc . but we here were we. beat nhc by watching this area
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
it look may take same track as tropical storm hermine if high build to it north let see shear and dry air as tropical storm Hermine saw when pass east Bahamas
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
what did craig setzr say?floridasun78 wrote:this getting alot weatherman in fl by surprise this was area was not even watch by nhc . but we here were we. beat nhc by watching this area
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:what did craig setzr say?floridasun78 wrote:this getting alot weatherman in fl by surprise this was area was not even watch by nhc . but we here were we. beat nhc by watching this area
he off tonight new guy on their he say nice weekend ahead
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
is site having issue cannot get http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=130 hwrf other hurr models to work
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Re: ATL; INVEST 93L - Discussion
floridasun78 wrote:jlauderdal wrote:what did craig setzr say?floridasun78 wrote:this getting alot weatherman in fl by surprise this was area was not even watch by nhc . but we here were we. beat nhc by watching this area
he off tonight new guy on their he say nice weekend ahead
Florida,
It isn't the weekend that's the question. It is around Tue-Thu of next week to see if 93L affects FL. But for now, you don't need to worry. Just follow it over the next few days and see if it even develops or what the models are showing. Also, yes, the GFDL/HWRF on that page aren't showing any output for some reason.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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