Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
519 AM AST TUE SEP 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The tropical wave is now at about 70W and continues to
move west. However, deep moisture is expected to remain over the
local area today which will help in the development of showers
over the local area. Surface high pressure will promote an East
to ESE wind flow over the local area for the next several days.
Upper level ridge will dominate the area for most of this week
with an upper low passing through the area from Thursday to
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The tropical wave that passed through the local area
left minimal rain accumulations across the USVI and eastern and
southern Puerto Rico during the overnight hours with the exception
of some sectors across the eastern interior and northeastern
portions of Puerto Rico where isolated areas received a half to
one inch of rain. The tropical wave is now over 70W and continues
to move west. However, there is still deep moisture trailing the
tropical wave with precipitable water values expected to be over 2
inches through the day today. Even though there is a ridge in the
upper levels, the latest guidance and observations indicate that
some showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon,
especially across western PR, isolated to scattered showers
elsewhere. Drier air is expected to move in on Wednesday
continuing through the rest of the week with some patches of
moisture, which would indicate that mainly locally induced showers
and thunderstorms are to be expected this week. having said that,
late this week, an upper low is expected to move through the local
area, which will cause an increase in the local instability
particularly late on Saturday when the upper low appears to
induce a surface trough moving close to the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Although the tropical wave will continue to move away
from the local area today...brief MVFR conds still possible in and
around the USVI terminals and JSJ in SHRA this morning. Aft 06/16z..
SHRA/TSRA development expected across W PR...and this may cause MVFR
conds and mountain obscurations in and around JMZ/JBQ till 06/22z.
Sfc winds will continue mainly from the E at around 15 kt with
higher gusts in/near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoys indicate that the coastal winds and the
local seas are subsiding. Latest guidance indicates that the local
winds and seas are expected to be up to 20 knots and up to 6 feet
respectively. Small craft operators should exercise caution. There
is a moderate risk of rip currents across many of the local
beaches.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 89 78 / 20 20 10 30
STT 87 77 89 78 / 30 10 10 30

[Gustywind]

By the way, for you my friends here is a final recap related to 92L's passage in Guadeloupe. Very juicy amounts of rainfall have been reported , strong gustywinds, rough seas during the last two days What an episode! If this thing were to stall 3 mores hours the situation will begin to be a bit worrying for sure in terms of floodings and muslides . Very beneficialains for us and fort the others Leewardians as Antigua well showered. Hope all the islanders are safe and dry
Right now back to green code since this morning as the sun shines and things seems return to normal


http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

Page 1

Monitoring Weather Forecast #

11

for Guadeloupe

Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 5:59AM or 959 UTC

Episode No.

10

-GD

Event ended

Vigilance level: back to GREEN

Current situation :

The last clouds associated with the tropical wave No. 30 finished to be evacuating Guadeloupe this
morning, giving only a few residual and weak showers. Dry and hazy weather is expected during the day.

Observed data during the episode:

Total rainfall recorded over the duration of the episode, is since Sunday morning (48 hours):

- 232 mm at la Citerne (St Claude near our Volcano La Soufrière) including 144 mm in 6 hours Monday

- 163.2 mm in Ste-Rose (Viard) including 105.6 mm in 6 hours Monday.

- 153.5 mm in Ste-Rose (Clugny) including 104.5 mm in 6 hours Monday

- 129.7 mm at St. Claude (Matouba)

- 123.9 mm in Capesterre Belle-Eau (Bois Debout) with 75.4 mm in 6 hours Monday

- 91.7 mm at Terre-de-Haut

- 71.5 mm Raizet.

The wettest areas during this episode:

- Trois-Rivières with totals estimated at more than 150 mm in 6 hours (radar estimated)

- Petit-Bourg, Lamentin and St Rose with accumulations estimated between 100 and 150 mm in 6 hours.

Moreover, wind gusts of 80 to 100 km / h were measured Sunday.

Website Météo France in the Antilles Guiana www.meteofrance.gp

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
159 PM AST TUE SEP 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure in the north central Atlantic
will continue to maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the
region through at least Thursday. An upper level disturbance will
encompass the region late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Trailing moisture associated with yesterday`s
tropical wave combined with daytime heating to produce some
showers with thunderstorms mainly across the northwest section of
Puerto Rico. In addition...some showers affected the southeast
section of Puerto Rico as well. This activity should dissipate
near sunset tonight.

Latest models guidance as well as satellites images indicated a
large area of drier air moving westward across the northern
leeward late this morning and early this afternoon. This
relatively dry air mass is expected to encompass the USVI and
Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Thus, for the next several days
mainly locally induced convection is expected across western and
interior Puerto Rico each afternoon. An upper level
low/disturbance is expected to approach the local area late
Thursday into Friday. However...at this time...no significant
weather is expected with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...Lingering moisture associated with a tropical
wave across Hispaniola in combination with local effects are still
expected to produce SHRA and possible TSRA across Western
PR...causing brief periods of MVFR conditions and mountain
obscurations in and around TJMZ/TJBQ until 06/22Z. After 07/00Z
mostly VFR is expected across most of the local Flying area. Surface
winds will continue mainly from the E to ESE at around 15 kt with
higher gusts near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Small Craft should exercise caution across most of the
local waters due to seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 20 10 30 20
STT 77 89 78 89 / 10 10 30 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
521 AM AST WED SEP 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough/TUTT east of the Lesser Antilles
will retrogress and move over the local region on Friday. This
trough aloft will increase the instability across the across the
local islands...enhancing the trade wind showers and the intensity
of the afternoon thunderstorms. A tropical wave is forecast to
reach the Northeast Caribbean Region on Saturday...bringing
another round of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery indicate drier than normal air
mass over the islands this morning. Low level moisture embedded in
the trade wind flow will bring a few showers across the windward
areas later this morning. Afternoon convection will likely develop
over the west interior and west portions of Puerto Rico this
afternoon. Similar pattern is forecast through Friday. GFS cross-
section and forecast sounding show dry air mass prevailing at mid
levels the rest of the work week. However...isolated strong
thunderstorms can not ruled out due to the proximity of the upper
level trough.

The next surge of moisture is associated with a tropical wave. At
this time...operational models suggest that the deep moisture
associated with the tropical wave will reach the local region on
Saturday. Therefore...showers and thunderstorms are likely as the
wave passes by. Moisture and instability will gradually diminish
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected across the local
terminals. However, a few brief passing -SHRA are possible across
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK through the morning hours. Then afternoon
convection across West PR and along the Cordillera Central, btwn
07/17-22z, will result in periods of MVFR conditions and mountain
obsc in/around TJMZ/TJBQ. Surface winds from the east at 10 to 15 kt
with higher gusts and sea breeze variations aft 07/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are subsided to 3-5 feet across most of the waters.
Winds will continue between 10-20 knots. Therefore...Small Craft
Operations should exercise caution across the coastal waters of
northern Puerto Rico due to winds up to 20 knots. A small northerly
swell will continue to decay over the next few days. No Smal Craft
Advisories are anticipated in the next 5 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 79 / 20 30 20 20
STT 89 79 89 79 / 30 30 20 20

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
151 PM AST WED SEP 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS..TUTT will move across the region Friday. A tropical
wave is forecast to reach the Northeast Caribbean Region on
Saturday...bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very dry weather conditions prevailed across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this morning and early this
afternoon. Some showers affected Saint Thomas around noon today.
This dry weather conditions are expected to continue through at
least Friday as an upper level ridge dominates the local area.
Thus, for the next several days mainly locally induced convection
is expected mostly across western and interior Puerto Rico during
the afternoon hours.

Upper level trough/TUTT east of the Lesser Antilles will
retrogress and move over the local region on Friday. This trough
aloft will increase the instability across the across the local
islands...enhancing the trade wind showers and the intensity of
the afternoon thunderstorms. A tropical wave will increase shower
and thunderstorm activity across the forecast area later on Friday
into Saturday. In the long term...no significant weather events
are forecast to affect the region at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across most of the local
flying area during the forecast period with only vicinity showers
across the Leewards and USVI taf sites. Some afternoon convection
expected across West PR and along the Cordillera Central, between
08/17-22Z, resulting in periods of MVFR conditions and mountain obsc
in/around TJMZ/TJBQ. Surface winds will remain from the east at
around 10 knots overnight increasing to 10 to 15 knots with higher
gusts after 08/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are subsided to 3-5 feet across most of the waters.
Winds will continue between 10-20 knots. Therefore...Small Craft
Operations should exercise caution across the coastal waters of
northern Puerto Rico due to winds up to 20 knots. A small northerly
swell will continue to decay over the next few days. No Small Craft
Advisories are anticipated in the next 5 days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 79 91 / 30 20 20 20
STT 79 89 79 89 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
529 AM AST THU SEP 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough over the Lesser Antilles will
move across the region on Friday. This trough aloft will increase
the instability across the local islands...enhancing the trade
wind showers and the intensity of the afternoon thunderstorms over
the next few days. A tropical wave is forecast to cross the
islands on Saturday...bringing a few rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Low level moisture embedded in the trade winds
will continue to push showers across the windward areas the rest
of this morning. Afternoon convection will develop over the west
interior...west and northwest portions of Puerto Rico. Similar
pattern is forecast on Friday. Although...a relatively dry air
mass will prevail at mid levels the rest of the work week...the
proximity of the upper level trough will enhance the afternoon
convection. Therefore...expect isolated strong thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall over the west portions of the islands each afternoon.

The next surge of moisture is associated with a tropical wave.
At this time...operational models suggest that the deep moisture
associated with the tropical wave will spread over the local
islands on Saturday...when the winds shift from the southeast.
Therefore...showers and thunderstorms are likely develop and
affect portions of Puerto Rico from time to time. Moisture and
instability will diminish somewhat early next week. However...
near normal moisture and some conditional instability will
support scattered showers from Sunday to Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area through the forecast period. However, trade wind showers with
tops around FL200 could briefly affect the leeward/USVI terminals.
SHRA/TSRA expected across western PR and along the Cordillera
Central, between 17-22Z, resulting in periods of MVFR conditions and
mountain obsc in/around TJMZ/TJBQ. Low level winds expected from the
east-southeast at 10-15 knots with sea breeze variations after
13Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are subsided to 3-5 feet across of the local waters.
Winds will continue between 10-15 knots...except in the coastal
waters of northern Puerto Rico where winds could reach 20 knots at
times. Therefore...Small Craft Operations should exercise caution
due to winds up to 20 knots. No Small Craft Advisories are anticipated
over the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 93 80 / 20 10 30 20
STT 89 80 90 81 / 20 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
147 PM AST THU SEP 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper ridge across the region will continue to move
westward as an upper level trough continues to move over the
region. This feature will result in an increase of low level
moisture across the local islands until at least Friday. A
tropical just to the East of the Lesser Antilles will continue to
move west-northwest tonight and Friday, reaching the region on
Saturday producing an increase in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler radar indicated showers and thunderstorms
across western interior and southwest Puerto Rico this afternoon.
Another showers were also detected over the north central
municipalities of Puerto Rico. This activity was associated with
the combination of daytime heating and local effects aided by an
upper level trough moving across the local islands this afternoon.
Although, a relatively dry air mass will prevail at mid levels
for rest of the work week, the proximity of the aforementioned upper
level trough in combination with daytime heating and local effects will
enhance the afternoon convection mostly across western and
interior Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave about 350 miles east of the Leeward Islands will
continue to move west-northwest today an Friday. At this time,
operational models suggest that the deep moisture associated with
the wave wave will pass mostly to the north northeast of the
region on Saturday. However...the instability created by the wave
in combination with daytime heating and local effects will produce
and increase in cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms across the
local islands. Additional development of this system, if any,
will be slow to occur during the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA will continue to affect TJMZ/TJBQ until
08/22Z. After that, mainly VFR conditions expected across the
local flying area through the rest of forecast period with
vicinity showers expected across the leeward/USVI terminals.
SHRA/TSRA expected again across western PR and along the
Cordillera Central, after 09/17Z-09/22Z, resulting in periods of
MVFR conditions and mountain obsc in/around TJMZ/TJBQ. Low level
winds expected from the east-southeast at 10-15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...Relatively quiet marine conditions will continue across
the local waters with seas in the range of 3-5 feet and winds of
10-15. No Small Craft Advisories are anticipated over the next 7
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 93 80 90 / 10 30 20 40
STT 80 90 81 88 / 40 40 40 40

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
522 AM AST FRI SEP 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough/TUTT over the local region will
keep the atmosphere unstable over the next few days. This trough
aloft will enhance the trade wind showers and the intensity of
the afternoon convection through Saturday. A tropical wave is
forecast to cross the islands on late tonight into Saturday...
bringing an increase of the shower and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite imagery shows an upper level
trough/TUTT over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The
presence of the TUTT across the local area is enhancing the trade
wind showers across the regional waters this morning. Although
some showers moved inland during overnight hours...most of the
showers have remained over the waters early this morning. However...
additional showers will move over the windward areas the rest of
this morning. Then...afternoon convection will develop over the
portions of the San Juan Metro Area...the North and Northwest
Puerto Rico. The trough aloft will likely enhance the afternoon
convection...resulting in strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
and gusty winds.

Deeper moisture associated with a tropical wave will pool across
the local islands late tonight into Saturday. This will result in
organized convection affecting portions of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands during the next 24-48 hours. At this time...the
most active period appears to be Saturday Morning and Saturday
Afternoon. Moisture and instability will diminish somewhat early
next week. However...normal moisture and some convective instability
will support the development of scattered showers between Sunday
and Tuesday. Drier and more stable conditions will likely return
by midweek next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected early in the fcst period.
However, from 09/17z-09/23z SHRA/isold TSRA ovr W PR and the Ctrl
Mtn range of PR will result in TEMPO MVFR and Mtn Top obsc ovr/vcty
TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ/TJNR. SHRA/TSRA possible between leeward and USVI
terminals due to a tropical wave. Sfc winds will continue E-SE at 10-
15 kts with sea breeze variations aft 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 3-5 feet will prevail across most of the waters.
Winds will continue between 10-15 knots over the next several days.
Therefore...no Small Craft Advisories are anticipated over the
next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 90 80 / 30 30 40 30
STT 89 81 89 80 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
121 PM AST FRI SEP 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough will remain over the region for the
next several days maintaining an unstable air mass across the
local islands during the weekend. An area of disturbed weather
just to the north of the northern Leeward Islands will add
additional instability for the development of showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper level TUTT low across the region will
continue to create an unstable atmosphere over the northeast
Caribbean for the next several days. This feature in combination
with daytime heating and local effects are expected to produce
shower and thunderstorm activity over parts of Puerto Rico during
the weekend. For the rest of this afternoon and until early this
evening showers and thunderstorms are still possible to develop
mostly across western interior, northwest and northern sections of
Puerto Rico including the San Juan Metro area.

An area of disturbed weather, just to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands will continue to move west northwestward tonight
and Saturday. Accordingly to the NHC, the environmental conditions
are not expected to be conducive for significant development at
this time. The bulk of the moisture associated with this system
is expected to pass mostly across the Atlantic waters north of
the region tonight and Saturday. However the moisture associated
with this system in combination with the upper level trough,
daytime heating and local effects will create a very unstable
environment across the forecast area Saturday and possible Sunday.
Moisture and instability will diminish somewhat early next week.
with drier and more stable conditions returning to the region by
midweek next week.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA will continue across western PR and north
of Cordillera Central until 09/22Z, resulting in periods of MVFR
conditions and mountain obsc in/around TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ. After
10/02Z, SHRA will affect the Leewards and USVI taf sites. Surface
southeast winds will diminish overnight to around 10 knots
increasing again to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts after 10/13Z.
A new round of SHRA/TSRA will affect TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ after 10/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 3-5 feet will prevail across most of the local
waters. Winds will continue between 10-15 knots over the next
several days. Therefore...no Small Craft Advisories are
anticipated over the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 80 89 / 30 40 30 40
STT 81 89 80 90 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
558 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND INDUCED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING WIND FLOW...MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS
OVER THE USVI/EASTERN PR AND SURROUNDING WATERS. SPREADING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT BUILDS FROM THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 45W IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms with frequent lightning
developed during the overnight hours across the offshore Atlantic
waters. Additional showers and thunderstorms developed between the
USVI with the northern USVI receiving the highest rainfall
amounts over land areas during the past few hours. The doppler
radar estimated between 1-2 inches of rain across St. Thomas and
St. John. Shower activity was also observed just after midnight across
the southeast/eastern coastal areas of PR. For the rest of the
morning hours, under southeasterly wind flow showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms should continue to affect sections of the
USVI and eastern Puerto Rico. As the day progresses, the upper low
interacting with the surface trough will enhance afternoon
convection along the mountain ranges of PR and affect the west and
northern areas of the island.

Moisture will linger across the forecast area through early next
week, with models showing an increase in PWAT on Sunday and
Tuesday. Overall, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day through the forecast period. Steering winds will shift
from the east-northeast on Sunday and will favor convection over
the Cordillera Central and SW quadrant of the island. East trades
return by Monday. A strong tropical wave and associated area of
low pressure could develop into a tropical depression by early
next week but is forecast to move over the open Atlantic waters.

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA will continue to affect the USVI terminals
thru at least 12Z. MVFR/IFR conds possible at TIST with the
SHRA/TSRA. Then, SHRA/TSRA forecast to develop in and around TJBQ,
TJMZ and possibly TJSJ between 17Z-21Z. Brief MVFR/IFR possible
with the SHRA/TSRA. SE winds of 10-15 kt will prevail below FL200.


&&

.MARINE...Seas should continue between 4-6 feet across the
offshore Atlantic waters where small craft operator should
exercise caution. Elsewhere, seas should range between 3-5 feet
and east to southeast winds should prevail between 10-15 knots.
Scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected Today across much of the waters as a surface trough moves
through the forecast area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 89 78 / 50 40 40 60
STT 88 81 90 79 / 50 50 50 60

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
132 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Trofiness aloft will prevail across the forecast area
through Wednesday. An induced surface trough north of the area will
continue to move west and away from the local islands tonight. Based
on the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC,A broad area of
low pressure located east of the Lesser Antilles will continue to
move west-northwest or northwest over the central Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An unstable air mass will continue to prevail across
the forecast area through at least Wednesday. Although the surface
trough will move away from the local islands tonight, trofiness
aloft and precipitable water near or slightly above the normal
range will continue to prevail. This will assure passing showers
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the east and south coastal
areas of Puerto Rico during the evening and early morning hours,
followed by showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall over and
west of the Cordillera Central each day. The locally induced
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be focused across west
and southwest Puerto Rico Sun-Tue due to surface winds shifting
east northeast in response to an area of low pressure moving into
the central Atlantic.

Low level moisture will then erode across the forecast area by
midweek as a ridge pattern aloft builds across the area. Therefore,
intensity and areal coverage of showers and Tstorms are expected
to decrease Wed-Fri. Ridge aloft will then collapse the upcoming
weekend as an upper level trough moves into the eastern Caribbean
from the east.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA expected across the local region, some of them
affecting the TAF sites. TJSJ/TJPS should observe an increase in
SHRA activity early this afternoon. SHRA/TSRA will continue to move
along and north of the Cordillera Central, to result in brief
MVFR/IFR conds at TJBQ/TJMZ and possibly TJSJ till 10/22z. The
lingering moisture could produce another round of -SHRA at
TIST/TISX/TJSJ aft 11/03z. Surface winds from the SE at 10-18 kts
and gusty near SHRA/TSRA, becoming from the E aft 11/03z at less
than 10kt.

&&

.MARINE...A surface trough north of the area will continue to enhance
shower and thunderstorm activity across the local waters through late
tonight. A surface high pressure across the north central Atlantic
will maintain a gentle to moderate east southeast wind flow through
early next week. Winds will shift east northeast Tuesday as a broad
area of low pressure moves into the central Atlantic. Overall seas
below 5 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 78 87 / 50 50 50 50
STT 81 90 79 88 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
552 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level low continues Today over Hispaniola while
another broad upper low over the Atlantic meanders to the northeast
of the Caribbean. Upper ridge is building from the east. Surface
high pressure continues across the Atlantic. A low pressure system
around 975 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles is forecast to
move over the open Atlantic waters during the next few days.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm affected
portions of eastern PR through the overnight hours. Between
half to one inch of rain was observed with the heaviest showers
with this activity. Meanwhile, a cluster of thunderstorms
continued over the offshore Atlantic waters with frequent
lightning noted. For today, divergence aloft associated to the
upper low over Hispaniola will aid in the development of showers
and thunderstorms across mainland PR. Brief periods of strong
gusty winds, frequent lightning and urban and small stream
flooding is expected.

Overall troughiness will continue over the central Caribbean basin
into the Atlantic waters to the north/northeast of the islands
during the next few days. Meanwhile an upper ridge builds from the
east through the medium range. Low level moisture will be
sufficient each day through at least Wednesday to aid in the
development of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
hours across the interior/western portions of PR. A low pressure
system around 975 miles east of the Lesser Antilles could develop
into a TC during the next day or so and is forecast to move over
the Central Atlantic with little effect on the local weather
conditions.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds will continue across the flying area through
at least 17Z. Some SHRA will move in and around TJSJ this morning
but VFR conds will likely prevail while SHRA passes by. Then
SHRA/TSRA will develop over the Cordillera Central, South and West
PR between 17Z-22Z. This SHRA/TSRA activity may lead to MVFR conds
over TJMZ and TJPS as well as Mountain Obscurations. Winds will
prevail from the East to Northeast around 10 kt. Higher gusts
possible near SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...Seas at or below 5 feet are expected through the
forecast period. Easterly winds between 5-15 knots are expected
with sea breeze variations during the afternoon hours. Small
craft advisories conditions are not expected during the next
several days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 40 50 50 50
STT 89 79 89 80 / 40 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
120 PM AST SUN SEP 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Trofiness aloft will prevail across the forecast
area through midweek. An area of low pressure located east of
the Lesser Antilles will continue to move northwestward over
the central Atlantic and away from the eastern Caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An unstable air mass will continue to prevail
across the forecast area through midweek with trofiness aloft
and precipitable water near or slightly above the normal range.
This will assure passing showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands
and the east coastal areas of Puerto Rico during the evening
and early morning hours, followed by afternoon showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall each day. As the aforementioned
low moves into the central Atlantic, the local wind field will
shift east northeast. This will result in afternoon showers and
thunderstorms focused over and west/southwest of the Cordillera
Central with the northern slopes of Puerto Rico returning to more
seasonable temperatures. Low level moisture will then erode somewhat
Wed-Thu as a weak ridge pattern aloft builds across the area. As a
result, intensity and areal coverage of showers and Tstorms are
expected to decrease. However, locally induced showers and
thunderstorms still expected Wed through Fri. Ridge aloft will
collapse the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough moves into
the eastern Caribbean from the east.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA over the Cordillera Central to move South
and West of PR till 11/22z. This activity may lead to mountain
obsc and BKN-OVC ceilings. Brief MVFR conds are also possible
across TJPS/TJMZ with this activity. Also, SHRA are possible near
TJSJ/TIST/TISX, as well as En Route between the Leeward terminals
and USVI. TJSJ Sounding data has E-NE winds btwn 6-17kt. Therefore,
expect winds around 15 knots with sea breeze variation and gusty
near TSRA/SHRA. Becoming calm to light and variable aft 11/23z.

&&

.MARINE...A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic and
an area of low pressure east of the Lesser Antilles will promote
a gentle to moderate east northeast wind flow through Wednesday.
As the low pressure moves into the north central Atlantic and
another surface high establishes north of the area...winds will
become more easterly Thursday and into the upcoming weekend.
Seas will continue below 5 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 50 50 50 40
STT 79 89 80 89 / 50 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
412 AM AST MON SEP 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid to upper level tutt low and associated trough will linger
north to northeast of the region through at least Tuesday while
slowly shifting westwards. In the low levels High pressure ridge
extends across the west and Central atlantic, meanwhile at the
surface an area of low pressure located east northeast of the
leeward islands continued to produce a large area of cloudiness
and convection as it continued to move northwest towards the
Central Atlantic. This overall synoptic pattern will induce light
to moderate east to northeast low level wind flow across the
region for the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Prevailing northeast wind flow continued to transport fragments
of moisture from the low pressure system towards and across the
local region. The proximity of the upper trough was also aiding in
enhancing some of these showers across the coastal waters as they
make their way over portions of the north and east coastal
sections of the islands. Some of the showers continue to produce
periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall as the moved inland
and affected the coastal municipalities which included parts of
the San Juan metropolitan area. The shower activity is expected to
continue into the early morning hours, then diminish by late
morning. During the afternoon ...recent model guidance and both
the earlier 12/00z TJSJ upper air sounding as well as the forecast
sounding suggest pwat values to remain between 1.80 to 1.90
inches. This will be sufficient to allow for afternoon convection
each day across portions of the islands, especially over the
interior and west to southwest sections of Puerto Rico where the
prevailing wind flow and local forcing should focus most of the
afternoon activity. The afternoon shower and thunderstorms
over these areas should produce periods of locally heavy rainfall
which may lead to minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas
as well as small streams.

For the latter part of the work week...so far models guidance
suggest somewhat drier airmass with lesser moisture advection
and decreasing precipitable water. Local wind flow is to become
more easterly as the area of low pressure lifts north northwest
across the Central Atlantic and the typical light to moderate
easterlies return to the forecast area. Other than a weakly
induced surface trough forecast to move across the area by
thursday, no significant weather feature is expect to affect the
forecast area at this time. However, do expect the occasional
early morning passing trade wind showers, followed by isolated to
scattered locally and diurnally induced afternoon convection each
day.

&&

.AVIATION...During the morning hours SCT SHRA will continue to move
from the Atlantic waters, causing brief periods of SHRA across the
Leeward, USVI and TJSJ TAF sites through 12/14Z. SHRA/TSRA expected
to develop after 12/16Z across, PR which will likely cause VCTS
across the terminals in PR with particular impact in TJMZ and TJPS
between 12/16Z-21Z and at TJBQ between 12/19Z-22Z where MVFR conds
are possible. winds are expected to increase after 12/12Z to about
10-15KT with sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
criteria through the end of the week. An E to NE Swell from the
low pressure moving into the Central Atlantic over the next few
days will be minor in the local forecast area based on recent
marine model guidance. In the meantime winds and seas of 15 knots
or less and 5 feet or less respectively.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 79 / 50 40 40 40
STT 89 80 89 79 / 50 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
145 PM AST MON SEP 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The proximity of a TUTT Low is producing unstable
conditions. As this feature weakens during the next few days, a
subequatorial ridge will builds over the area from the Northeast.
Patches of low level moisture will move from time to time across
the region each day during the workweek.

The National Hurricane Center named Tropical Storm Ian, it was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 50.4 West and was
moving northwestward. This system does not represent any danger
for the local region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The trofiness aloft will continue to create an unstable atmosphere
over the region through midweek. This will combine with diurnal
heating and local effect to produce rounds of showers and
thunderstorms across the region each afternoon. Activity should
focus across the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. In
addition, showers and thunderstorms still possible mainly downwind
from the U.S. Virgin Islands each day. After midweek, a ridge
aloft is expected to build from the Northeast over the region.
This feature is expected to erode the available moisture to limit
afternoon convection across the region. However, passing showers
remain possible across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the windward
sections of PR during the overnight and early morning hours.

The Hurricane Center named the Ninth Tropical Storm of the
season, Tropical Storm Ian. This system is forecast to moves
farther north into the Atlantic Ocean. For additional information
about this system visit the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conds and mountain obscurations will remain possible in and
around JMZ/JPS through at least 12/22z. Passing SHRA will continue
to affect the Leeward...USVI and JSJ terminals overnight. Easterly
winds 10-15 knots becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Mariners can expect seas up to 5 feet and winds below 18 knots. An
E to NE small swell from Tropical Storm Ian is expected to reach
the Atlantic Offshore waters between Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 79 89 / 40 40 40 40
STT 79 90 79 89 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
443 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The TUTT Low across the Central Atlantic and associated
trough, will continue to move farther north and west of the forecast
area while weakening during the next few days. High pressure ridge
will continue to build and spread across the region during the
rest of the week. In the meantime, marginally unstable conditions
will continue across the forecast area today. Surface high pressure
across the West and North central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Ian
located some 900 miles East Northeast of the forecast area will help
to maintain a light to moderate East Northeast wind flow across the
region. Patches of low level moisture will therefore continue to be
transported across the area by the prevailing trades from time to
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Passing showers continued to develop and move over
the local waters during the overnight hours. Some of these showers
brushed parts of the U.S. Virgin Islands as well as the north and
east coastal sections of Puerto Rico producing periods of light to
moderate rainfall. Expect the low level cloudiness and shower activity
to diminish by the late morning leaving partly cloudy to mostly sunny
skies. However during the afternoon hours, locally and diurnally induced
showers and thunderstorms will again develop over the central and western
sections of Puerto Rico. Some of the afternoon convection may be locally
enhanced and could lead to minor flooding in urban and poor drainage
area.

A somewhat drier airmass will gradually spread across the region
during the latter part of the work week and continue through at
least Saturday of the upcoming weekend, as the wind flow weakens
and becomes more easterly. No significant weather feature is so
far expected to affect the forecast area for the next several days,
except for locally and diurnally induced showers over the islands
with possibly a few thunderstorms mainly over parts of the interior
sections of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected this morning with SCT
SHRA moving across the local area, causing VCSH across the Leeward,
USVI and TJSJ taf sites through 13/14Z. SHRA/TSRA expected to
develop after 13/16Z across central, western and southwestern PR
which will likely cause VCTS and possible MVFR conds across TJMZ and
TJPS between 13/16Z-21Z. Winds will continue to be from the East to
ENE at 10KT or less through 13/13Z, increasing to about 10-15KT with
sea breeze variations after 13/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...Seas are expected to increase slightly as a small east northeast
swell from Tropical Storm Ian will spread across the local Atlantic
waters and the Anegada passage. Most of the Atlantic waters will
however remain below 6 feet, except for the local offshore Atlantic
waters where small craft should exercise caution. Otherwise, small
craft advisories are not anticipated during the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 40 40 40 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 30 40 40 20

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Trofiness aloft will continues to weakens as a Subequatorial
ridge continue to build and spread across the region from the
Northeast during the rest of the week. A surface high pressure,
across the West and North Central Atlantic, and Tropical Storm
Ian, well North of the Forecast area, will help to maintain a
light to moderate East Northeast wind flow across the region.
Occasional patches of surface moisture will move across the
islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds and showers increased across the islands late this morning
and into the afternoon hours. The Doppler Radar detected showers
with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall mainly across the
Interior, West and Southwest Puerto Rico. Also, moderate to heavy
showers developed and moved downwind from St Thomas and St Croix.
Relative unstable conditions will continue, and the potential for
showers and thunderstorms development remains possible across the
islands at least until the evening hours.

For wednesday, a ridge aloft is expected to build from the
Northeast over the region. This feature is expected to erode the
available moisture and limit afternoon convection. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will be focus mainly across the West and
Interior sections of PR each day. Also, keep in mind that trade
wind showers remains possible across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
the windward sections of PR during the overnight and early morning
hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA expected to develop after 13/16Z across
central, western and southwestern PR which will likely cause VCTS
and possible MVFR conds across TJMZ and TJPS between 13/16Z-21Z.
Winds will continue to be from the East to ENE at 10KT or less
through 13/13Z, increasing to about 10-15KT with sea breeze
variations after 13/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A small northeast swell from Tropical Storm Ian is spreading
across the local Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages. Elsewhere
expect seas below 6 feet and winds below 18 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 40 40 20 20
STT 79 89 78 90 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
320 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough over Hispaniola will move further
westward, while and upper ridge build across the region from the
East. A surface high pressure across the West and North Central
Atlantic and Tropical Storm Ian, well northeast of the region will
help to maintain a light to moderate East Northeast wind flow
across the local islands. Not significant weather feature is
expected to affect the region for the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler radar indicated brief isolated passing
showers embedded in the east to east northeast wind flow moving
from the Atlantic waters across the local islands overnight and
early in the morning. However the rainfall accumulations associated
with this activity were minimal.

The upper level trough that affected the northeast Caribbean for
the past few days will move westward and away from the local
islands today. As the same time, an upper level ridge is expected
to build today across the region from the east. This feature will
limit the moisture content of the local airmass for the next
several days. However, the persistent east northeast low level
wind flow will continue to transport small areas of moisture
across the region, sufficient to generate brief showers across
the U.S. Virgin Islands and across eastern and northern sections
of Puerto Rico overnight and early in the mornings. This moisture
will combine with daytime heating, sea breeze convergence and
other local effect to induce the development of showers and a
couple of thunderstorms over western and interior Puerto Rico each
afternoon.

Looking well ahead, not significant weather feature is expected
to affect the region in the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected this morning with brief
SHRA moving across the local area, causing VCSH across the
Leeward, USVI and TJSJ taf sites through 14/13Z. SHRA/TSRA
expected to develop after 14/16Z across central, western and
southwestern PR which will likely cause VCTS and possible MVFR
conds across TJMZ and TJPS between 14/16Z-21Z. Winds will
continue to be from the East to ENE at 10KT or less through
14/13Z, increasing to about 10-15KT with sea breeze variations
after 14/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet are expected across the offshore
Atlantic waters today, decreasing slowly to up to 5 feet tonight
and Thursday. Winds generally 10 to 15 knots from the East to
ENE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 79 / 40 20 20 20
STT 90 79 89 79 / 40 20 20 20

&&

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
153 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A mid to upper level ridge will continue to build
across the eastern Caribbean, as TUTT continues to move west
and away from the local islands. Ridge aloft is then expected
to hold through early the upcoming weekend. As this feature
erodes, trofiness will return to the forecast area early next
week. A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will prevail
across the forecast area during the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny and rain-free conditions prevailed
across the forecast area this morning. Locally induced showers
and thunderstorms developed over and W of Cordillera early this
afternoon. A mostly fair and stable weather pattern will prevail
across the local islands through early the upcoming weekend under
ridge aloft and limited low level moisture. Although a trough
aloft is expected to amplify across the area Sat-Sun, local
islands will remain under it convergent side. Therefore fair
weather still expected Sat-Sun. A few locally induced afternoon
showers and thunderstorms still possible each day.

As the trough axis relocates to our west, moisture advection
is expected across the forecast area early next week. Therefore
there is a better chance for showers with thunderstorms across
the forecast area Mon-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across most of the forecast area.
However...brief MVFR conds and mountain obscurations are likely in
and around TJMZ through 22Z. VCTS possible near TJPS and TJBQ with
the afternoon convection. NE to E winds at 10 kt are expected to
prevail fm SFC to FL100.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected to prevail across
the local islands during the next few days...with winds 10-15 kt
and seas 3-5 feet across most of the waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 79 90 / 20 10 20 20
STT 79 89 79 90 / 30 20 20 20