ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
The little swirl is racing off to the NW and dissipating. Strong wind shear should prevent any development of this disturbance. The only reason it's alive now is the upper low to its north providing a favorable environment for squalls to develop. But it's also providing the shear that is preventing tropical development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:The little swirl is racing off to the NW and dissipating. Strong wind shear should prevent any development of this disturbance. The only reason it's alive now is the upper low to its north providing a favorable environment for squalls to develop. But it's also providing the shear that is preventing tropical development.
Ok, Mister "One with the Disturbances" ( lol), where do you see this one going?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Poof
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Why is the NHC giving it a rather healthy 40% chance of development?
wxman57 wrote:The little swirl is racing off to the NW and dissipating. Strong wind shear should prevent any development of this disturbance. The only reason it's alive now is the upper low to its north providing a favorable environment for squalls to develop. But it's also providing the shear that is preventing tropical development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:The little swirl is racing off to the NW and dissipating. Strong wind shear should prevent any development of this disturbance. The only reason it's alive now is the upper low to its north providing a favorable environment for squalls to develop. But it's also providing the shear that is preventing tropical development.
It does not look too good.. but I don't see it racing off to the nw, or is it really totally dissipating, too early to call that (it might). There does appear to be some strong upper winds (250 mb) heading down the east coast of Florida. I just think someone does not want to be working a system this weekend into next week
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Well wxman57 has spoken, nothing to see here but a dying naked swirl heading into the SE GoM the day before the peak day of the season.
Is it too soon to say next season yet?
Is it too soon to say next season yet?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:Well wxman57 has spoken, nothing to see here but a dying naked swirl heading into the SE GoM the day before the peak day of the season.
Is it too soon to say next season yet?
Come on man
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:Well wxman57 has spoken, nothing to see here but a dying naked swirl heading into the SE GoM the day before the peak day of the season.
Is it too soon to say next season yet?
Yes, it is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:Well wxman57 has spoken, nothing to see here but a dying naked swirl heading into the SE GoM the day before the peak day of the season.
Is it too soon to say next season yet?
People were saying "next season" last year too at this time, remember.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Another burst of convection should start soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Latest COD analysis has a relatively well defined vort of 3.
Vort will stay vertically compressed as it travels thru the mid-level dry slot coming down from the Glades and anchoring thru the Keys.
However, if this survives past the dry slot and gets past about 84W, the vort could quickly expand vertically and spin up.
CAPE in this area is currently running 3000 to 3500. This typically is enough to fire off deep convection.
Vort will stay vertically compressed as it travels thru the mid-level dry slot coming down from the Glades and anchoring thru the Keys.
However, if this survives past the dry slot and gets past about 84W, the vort could quickly expand vertically and spin up.
CAPE in this area is currently running 3000 to 3500. This typically is enough to fire off deep convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
that band of shear is now whacking this. Any convection will be immediately stripped away from the center
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
About 3 hrs ago there was enough convergence for a high rain-rate hot tower to fire off.
If this makes it past 84W, IMHO it is likely convection could refire.
A couple good hot towers then could change the upper levels enough to support further development.
IMHO, its all about what happens as it tracks thru that mid-level dry slot.
If this makes it past 84W, IMHO it is likely convection could refire.
A couple good hot towers then could change the upper levels enough to support further development.
IMHO, its all about what happens as it tracks thru that mid-level dry slot.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Hammy wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Well wxman57 has spoken, nothing to see here but a dying naked swirl heading into the SE GoM the day before the peak day of the season.
Is it too soon to say next season yet?
People were saying "next season" last year too at this time, remember.
Indeed. Until it fades, the Gulf Coast should still watch it closely. Hermine was declared dead and it ended up badly affecting a lot of people. Anyway, this bears watching. Along with the other invests as we are in the peak of the season. A lot of factors in play.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
JaxGator wrote:Hammy wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Well wxman57 has spoken, nothing to see here but a dying naked swirl heading into the SE GoM the day before the peak day of the season.
Is it too soon to say next season yet?
People were saying "next season" last year too at this time, remember.
Indeed. Until it fades, the Gulf Coast should still watch it closely. Hermine was declared dead and it ended up badly affecting a lot of people. Anyway, this bears watching. Along with the other invests as we are in the peak of the season. A lot of factors in play.
Not that my Hermine forecast gives this much credibility, but I think this particular system is toast--there is basically no model support whatsoever for more than a weak low in a day that quickly dissipates. But the season itself is far from over, and while the statistical peak may be quiet, on the average about half of the activity occurs after that point (and let's not forget the secondary peak in October...)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
CIRA showing high Total Preciptiable Water thru all levels in the SE GOM
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:The little swirl is racing off to the NW and dissipating. Strong wind shear should prevent any development of this disturbance. The only reason it's alive now is the upper low to its north providing a favorable environment for squalls to develop. But it's also providing the shear that is preventing tropical development.
Says the man who desperately wants the weekend off. Hehe
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
now that the convection over cuba has collapsed the inflow should become a little more established on the south side. convection should refire over the next hour or two.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Hammy wrote:JaxGator wrote:Hammy wrote:
People were saying "next season" last year too at this time, remember.
Indeed. Until it fades, the Gulf Coast should still watch it closely. Hermine was declared dead and it ended up badly affecting a lot of people. Anyway, this bears watching. Along with the other invests as we are in the peak of the season. A lot of factors in play.
Not that my Hermine forecast gives this much credibility, but I think this particular system is toast--there is basically no model support whatsoever for more than a weak low in a day that quickly dissipates. But the season itself is far from over, and while the statistical peak may be quiet, on the average about half of the activity occurs after that point (and let's not forget the secondary peak in October...)
Yes, it could poof too (and it's taking a real beating from shear) but it's interesting that it has come back to life a couple of times after the convection faded (because the engery it has is still there). And I agree, some of the season's worst storms can occur just after the peak period. Jeanne, Mitch, Wilma and Joaquin are good examples of that. So far though, we've already have had a lot of storms with a lot of time left to go.
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Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023.
Go Gators! Go Jags!
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