Sept 25 and TD 15L (Juan)

[senorpepr]

Well... the tropics woke up... again. Oh... and we're still ahead of "average."

Below is a breakdown of what storms were active on Sep 25 between 1974 and 2003. (Note: storm numbers in parenthesis had been finalled out by NHC prior to Sep 25) Also listed is the date Tropical Depression Fifteen formed between 1974 and 2003, if applicable; as well is a listing of what date the "J" storm developed on. At the end the list is the 30 year average ('74-'03).

Active Storms on September 25, followed by the date TD 15 formed and date the J-storm formed.
03: 15, 16; Sep 25; Sep 25
02: 9, 11, 12; n/a; Sep 17
01: 8; Nov 23; Oct 6
00: 8, 9, 10; Oct 25; Sep 25
99: (8); n/a; Oct 17
98: 9, 10, 11; n/a; Sep 21
97: (6); n/a; n/a
96: 9; n/a; Oct 4
95: 13; Sep 27; Aug 22
94: 5; n/a; n/a
93: (8); n/a; n/a
92: 3, 4, 5; n/a; n/a
91: (5); n/a; n/a
90: 10; n/a; Sep 21
89: 8, (9); n/a; Oct 12
88: 9; n/a; Oct 10
87: 6; n/a; n/a
86: (5); n/a; n/a
85: 7, 8; n/a; Oct 26
84: 9, 10; n/a; Oct 7
83: (3); n/a; n/a
82: (5); n/a; n/a
81: 9; n/a; Oct 29
80: 8; n/a; Nov 7
79: (8); n/a; n/a
78: (9); n/a; Oct 7
77: (3); n/a; n/a
76: (8); n/a; n/a
75: 6; n/a; n/a
74: (9); n/a; n/a
====
Average TD on Sep 25: 8.03 ('03: above average by 7.97 TDs)
Average Date for TD 15*: Oct 18 ('03: ahead of schedule by 23 days)
Average Date for TS J---*: Oct 5 ('03: ahead of schedule by 10 days)

* TD 15 occured 13.33% of the time in the past 30 years.
* TS J--- occured 53.33% of the time in the past 30 years.

Note: Yes, I am aware that Tropical Depression Sixteen is active and they do reflect above. However, I will send out another email once TD 16 is upgraded to TS Kate. 16 or more depressions have only occured twice in the past 20 years, in 2003 and in 2001. Like I said before, once this system is upgraded I will send out another message with all the data about TD 16 and K named storms.

Thanks!

[senorpepr]

Oh... and in case you didn't know... here's the lineup for the next few storm names: Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, and Odette. Who knows... we may even go further on the list of names. Remember '95?

[AussieMark]

remember historically in recent seasons October's have been busy remember 1999,2000,2001

[ColdFront77]

Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in the month of October (storms and dates in bold indicate storms in October and when more than 50% of the existence of the system occurred in the month of October).

1999:
Tropical Depression #11: October 4 to October 6
Tropical Depression #12: October 6 to October 8
Hurricane Irene: October 13 to October 19
Hurricane Jose: October 17 to October 25
Tropical Storm Katrina: October 28 to November 1

2000:
Hurricane Isaac: September 21 to October 1
Hurricane Joyce: September 25 to October 2
Hurricane Keith: September 28 to October 6
Tropical Storm Leslie: October 5 to October 7
Hurricane Michael: October 17 to October 20
Tropical Storm Nadine: October 19 to October 22

2001:
Hurricane Iris: October 4 to October 9
Tropical Storm Jerry: October 6 to October 8
Hurricane Karen: October 12 to October 15
Tropical Storm Lorenzo: October 27 to October 31
Hurricane Michelle: October 29 to November 6

Please Note: The start and end date(s) of the tropical storms and hurricanes are when these systems were tropical depressions.

[senorpepr]

True indeed... October can be a very active month as we saw in past years. Then again, November can also produce a couple more storms as well. The season is not over yet.