Wave south of CV Islands

[Hurricaneman]

This wave may need to be monitored for further development as the GFS has this getting pretty far west before truncation and may need to be watched next week as there may be a ridge building in

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[USTropics]

Ensemble Prob % of TC genesis way up for next 48 hours:



ECMWF 00z run has a closed low and weak steering at 48 hours, eventually this area appears to be a weak TS in the CATL at the end of the ECMWF run:

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

Tropical wave extends from 12N17W to 20N17W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 10W-23W and
a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis focused
near 17N. To the SW of the wave...another global model indicated
850 mb relative vorticity maximum is noted...likely the southern
vortex of the wave...by a 1014 mb low centered along the Monsoon
Trough near 10N20W. Most convection is associated with this low as
scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 14W-20W...
and from 09N-14N between 19W-28W.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W from 20N southward.
This position agrees with current satellite imagery. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
09N to 18N between Africa and 25W.