![Image](http://i.imgur.com/OEN4Jch.jpg)
WDPN34 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF A
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND. A 112354Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A
BROAD, DEFINED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED
ON THE MSI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, HEDGED
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, BASED ON THE WELL
ORGANIZED STRUCTURE. TD 19W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR 19W AND
SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 24 AND TO TRACK INLAND AND
DISSIPATE OVER VIETNAM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TD 19W WILL INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
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