ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
94L's appearance reminds me of Colin.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
floridasun78 wrote:
that look more wnw track not nw as before
Yeah, but that ain't gonna happen. Well, let's just say it's highly unlikely. One never knows, though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
abajan wrote:floridasun78 wrote:
that look more wnw track not nw as before
Yeah, but that ain't gonna happen. Well, let's just say it's highly unlikely. One never knows, though.
If it remains weak it could.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:abajan wrote:floridasun78 wrote:that look more wnw track not nw as before
Yeah, but that ain't gonna happen. Well, let's just say it's highly unlikely. One never knows, though.
If it remains weak it could.
You're right. Weather does sometimes throw surprises. And the map does say it's moving WNW.
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
abajan wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:abajan wrote:
Yeah, but that ain't gonna happen. Well, let's just say it's highly unlikely. One never knows, though.
If it remains weak it could.
You're right. Weather does sometimes throw surprises. And the map does say it's moving WNW.
And the latest TWD says it's moving W! Remember?
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A vigorous tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated
with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 16N47W. The wave
extends from 10N to 23N with axis near 47W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Gustywind wrote:abajan wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:If it remains weak it could.
You're right. Weather does sometimes throw surprises. And the map does say it's moving WNW.
And the latest TWD says it's moving W! Remember?
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A vigorous tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated
with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 16N47W. The wave
extends from 10N to 23N with axis near 47W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours
Interesting. I missed that. Thanks for pointing it out, Gusty
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
abajan wrote:Gustywind wrote:abajan wrote:
You're right. Weather does sometimes throw surprises. And the map does say it's moving WNW.
And the latest TWD says it's moving W! Remember?
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A vigorous tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated
with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 16N47W. The wave
extends from 10N to 23N with axis near 47W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours
Interesting. I missed that. Thanks for pointing it out, Gusty
Very interresting . A very strange mistake from the NHC or it really continues on a west motion?! I don't know we will see the next TWD to have a better idea, maybe...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Prior to the latest convective burst there was a large unfocused wave that was generally drifting west. Once we get some circulation maybe they just move the WNW box? Unless a ridge builds in once the trough is done with 93L still might not have to worry.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
A low pressure system located about 1000 miles east-northeast of the
Leeward Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Shower activity associated with this system has increased and become
a little better organized during the past several hours, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later tonight or on Monday
before upper-level winds become less conducive for development. The
low is expected to move northwestward or north-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph over the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Leeward Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Shower activity associated with this system has increased and become
a little better organized during the past several hours, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later tonight or on Monday
before upper-level winds become less conducive for development. The
low is expected to move northwestward or north-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph over the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
If this becomes Ian, glad it will be a fish storm. I really don't want another dangerous I to happen
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Satellite derived wind data indicate that the low pressure system
located about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands is producing an area of gale-force winds, but the center
of circulation is not well defined. The associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to gradually increase and have become a
little better organized during the past several hours. If the
the circulation of the system becomes better defined, a tropical
storm could form later today before upper-level winds become less
conducive for development. The low is expected to move
northwestward or north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent ...
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24N46W 19N48W 10N52W.
A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 19N.
Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within300
nm of the center in the northern semicircle, and from 14N to15N
between 48W and 50W. isolated moderate from 08N to 12Nbetween
50W and 53W. The current high seas forecast consists of gale-
force winds from 20N to 23.5N between 45W and 51W, and sea
heights ranging from 9 feet to 15 feet. Please read the high
seas forecast, that is listed under MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for
more details. Precipitation that is associated with this system
has increased and become a little better organized during the
past several hours. It is likely that a tropical depression may
form during the early morning hours, or later today on Monday,
before upper level winds become less conducive for development.
The low pressure center is expected to move northwestward or
north-northwestward about 10 to 15 mph in the central Atlantic
Ocean during the next few days. The chance of formation is high. ...
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Satellite derived wind data indicate that the low pressure system
located about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands is producing an area of gale-force winds, but the center
of circulation is not well defined. The associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to gradually increase and have become a
little better organized during the past several hours. If the
the circulation of the system becomes better defined, a tropical
storm could form later today before upper-level winds become less
conducive for development. The low is expected to move
northwestward or north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent ...
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24N46W 19N48W 10N52W.
A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 19N.
Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within300
nm of the center in the northern semicircle, and from 14N to15N
between 48W and 50W. isolated moderate from 08N to 12Nbetween
50W and 53W. The current high seas forecast consists of gale-
force winds from 20N to 23.5N between 45W and 51W, and sea
heights ranging from 9 feet to 15 feet. Please read the high
seas forecast, that is listed under MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for
more details. Precipitation that is associated with this system
has increased and become a little better organized during the
past several hours. It is likely that a tropical depression may
form during the early morning hours, or later today on Monday,
before upper level winds become less conducive for development.
The low pressure center is expected to move northwestward or
north-northwestward about 10 to 15 mph in the central Atlantic
Ocean during the next few days. The chance of formation is high. ...
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Gustywind wrote:And the latest TWD says it's moving W! Remember?
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A vigorous tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated
with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 16N47W. The wave
extends from 10N to 23N with axis near 47W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours
Whoever wrote that wasn't paying attention to its movement, or he/she made a typo. It's been moving NW for the past 2 days. Close to NNW now. You never know who is writing these discussions or how much care was taken in the analysis.
There's no question - it's heading out to sea to the north. No Caribbean or U.S. threat.
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- cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Visible satellite images indicate that the circulation associated
with the low pressure system located about 800 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands is becoming better defined. This
disturbance is already producing winds to gale force, and if the
current development trend continues, a tropical storm could form
later today. The system is expected to move northwestward or
north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic Ocean
during the next few days. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
with the low pressure system located about 800 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands is becoming better defined. This
disturbance is already producing winds to gale force, and if the
current development trend continues, a tropical storm could form
later today. The system is expected to move northwestward or
north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic Ocean
during the next few days. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
We're definitely feeling the effects of its location. It's dead calm here in the southwest of the island and we just had a fairly heavy shower. I'm guessing parts of the island will get afternoon thunderstorms. The same would apply to the other islands in the Lesser Antilles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Can anyone explain this 94LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-132N-450W.100pc.jpg
Has the tropical wave designated invest 94L been re positioned
Has the tropical wave designated invest 94L been re positioned
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Gustywind wrote:And the latest TWD says it's moving W! Remember?
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A vigorous tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated
with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 16N47W. The wave
extends from 10N to 23N with axis near 47W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours
Whoever wrote that wasn't paying attention to its movement, or he/she made a typo. It's been moving NW for the past 2 days. Close to NNW now. You never know who is writing these discussions or how much care was taken in the analysis.
There's no question - it's heading out to sea to the north. No Caribbean or U.S. threat.
Thanks for that clarification . That was a big mistake from the NHC. Hopefully this system should not be a concern for any land mass areas.
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