2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[lovingseason2013]

Pretty awesome news for us in hurricane alley!

[Blown Away]

Hmm maybe hermine was all she wrote this season. Plenty of season left but as of right now conditions are hostile just everywhere. Should be interesting couple of weeks but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Just give it a few more weeks when MJO comes around, EPAC calms down, etc. etc., blah, blah...

[Macrocane]

I'm not a pro met but I think MJO contribution in Atlantic hurricane season is sometimes kind of overrated. Since I first heard about MJO (in 2008) I've seen that it makes conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, not in the MDR. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[wxmann_91]

I'm not a pro met but I think MJO contribution in Atlantic hurricane season is sometimes kind of overrated. Since I first heard about MJO (in 2008) I've seen that it makes conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, not in the MDR. Correct me if I'm wrong.

To be fair, the MDR hasn't been favorable period (regardless of MJO, ENSO, or anything else) during the majority of that time.

But yeah, the MJO is a bigger factor in the Pacific basins than it is in the Atlantic.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hmm maybe hermine was all she wrote this season. Plenty of season left but as of right now conditions are hostile just everywhere. Should be interesting couple of weeks but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Hermine will be far from the last storm this season. At least 4-8 more coming.

[Steve]

Agreed. I don't know about 8, but peak is next week and over the few weeks after that. No way 2016 is dead with 40 something ACE even if you throw in another 10 for pt-Hermine. I sometimes wonder why people whine and get pouty about lulls in a season or before it gets started sometimes. I know people need stimulation and have zero attention spans even though we all have the rest of our lives to track the tropics. Speaking of lives, sometimes one has to wonder if poster X or Y even has one if all they want to do is question the passing of time. Sure, we all want to understand more. But if following the tropics gets someone emotional, and they or loved ones aren't immediately at risk, damn, get more hobbies.

Speaking of models, Canadian takes the low pressure behind ex 92L, and blows it up in the SW Atlantic before hitting North Carolina with a quick left hook. I doubt it happens, but it's a trackable entity.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/773596938570575872

[JaxGator]

Agreed. I don't know about 8, but peak is next week and over the few weeks after that. No way 2016 is dead with 40 something ACE even if you throw in another 10 for pt-Hermine. I sometimes wonder why people whine and get pouty about lulls in a season or before it gets started sometimes. I know people need stimulation and have zero attention spans even though we all have the rest of our lives to track the tropics. Speaking of lives, sometimes one has to wonder if poster X or Y even has one if all they want to do is question the passing of time. Sure, we all want to understand more. But if following the tropics gets someone emotional, and they or loved ones aren't immediately at risk, damn, get more hobbies.

Speaking of models, Canadian takes the low pressure behind ex 92L, and blows it up in the SW Atlantic before hitting North Carolina with a quick left hook. I doubt it happens, but it's a trackable entity.

Exactly! This season is far from over. Gaston and Hermine are proof of that. Gaston being a beautiful ots Cape Verdi (or Cabo Verdi) storm and Hermine being the first hurricane to hit Florida in 11 years (Wilma 2005), ending the Florida hurricane drought. And can't forget about Earl either. This has been a big season imo and far from dead. The models shouldn't create that illusion. That also brings out the trolls everywhere on social media that spread mis-information about the basin when their wrong and it makes me sick that they don't have any care for anyone badly affected by this season's storms. And when a storm does show up, they're no where to be seen (unless it involves a storm's appearance at a certain moment or them downplaying a threat).

However, there are good people voicing their honest opinion of what they see and we're always learning about the weather (but sometimes, it might be hard to tell them and trolls apart but that's what the disclaimer is for). Models change a lot. Especially with Hermine. She was a surprise up to the end. But a day till landfall, the HWRF and the Euro did the greatest on intensity but somewhat on landfall. Imo.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Nice looking wave coming off Africa. Any model support for this

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... njava.html

[gatorcane]

Models are suggesting some Cape Verde activity but these systems look to either stay in the Far Eastern Atlantic or recurve. Models are showing zilch in the Western Atlantic.

[PTrackerLA]

Models are suggesting some Cape Verde activity but these systems look to either stay in the Far Eastern Atlantic or recurve. Models are showing zilch in the Western Atlantic.

Pretty astonishing and goes against what many experts were expecting to see this season. We have several more weeks to watch but in about a month the door will start closing on even western Caribbean activity.

[Stormcenter]

So do we really need the predictions anymore?

[Hammy]

Models are suggesting some Cape Verde activity but these systems look to either stay in the Far Eastern Atlantic or recurve. Models are showing zilch in the Western Atlantic.

Pretty astonishing and goes against what many experts were expecting to see this season. We have several more weeks to watch but in about a month the door will start closing on even western Caribbean activity.

I'd say closer to the end of October--isn't the middle of the month around when the secondary peak is?

[USTropics]

Models are suggesting some Cape Verde activity but these systems look to either stay in the Far Eastern Atlantic or recurve. Models are showing zilch in the Western Atlantic.

Pretty astonishing and goes against what many experts were expecting to see this season. We have several more weeks to watch but in about a month the door will start closing on even western Caribbean activity.

I wouldn't say that's true at all. In fact, climatology speaking, systems that do form near the end of September through October have historically been concentrated in this area:

[Steve]

All true JaxG. And yeah, there also plenty of honest debate on it. I'm positive the season is far from over, but I think you are maybe in a special case with actually having legit effects from 2 or 3 systems. So it's close to home in a way that you know for a 100% fact it's not been a dud season so far.

We can all look back at the end of the season, and we will. The EPAC heat probably stole away some thunder in the first half of the Atlantic season. And it's rained a ton here all Spring and Summer with only a few breaks here and there (different than 1998 in SE LA). I don't know specifically why because it hasn't been exclusively waves, seabreezes or fronts. Just I guess a lot of Pacific and Gulf moisture available on old boundaries and focusing mechanisms. There's a current burst in the WPAC, and that often precedes one on the EPAC and Atlantic. I've seen conflicting MJO info but maybe we get a favorable or neutral pulse through. I think I guessed 14 NS in the guess contest (don't remember my other #'s off hand), and with Ian named now, another 4 or 5 NS aren't out of the question particularly with models showing some east basin activity.

If we get a pulse of say 3, there could easily be an odd other one or two on either side of the pulse getting to 14/15/16 named systems. The later in September it gets, usually the better for us up this way as far as Majors, so I'm hoping for nothing in the Gulf outside of 92ls remnants for a couple weeks.

[Alyono]

Models are suggesting some Cape Verde activity but these systems look to either stay in the Far Eastern Atlantic or recurve. Models are showing zilch in the Western Atlantic.

Pretty astonishing and goes against what many experts were expecting to see this season. We have several more weeks to watch but in about a month the door will start closing on even western Caribbean activity.

season has played out exactly as expected. 4 of 9 storms have affected the Gulf so far

[JaxGator]

All true JaxG. And yeah, there also plenty of honest debate on it. I'm positive the season is far from over, but I think you are maybe in a special case with actually having legit effects from 2 or 3 systems. So it's close to home in a way that you know for a 100% fact it's not been a dud season so far.

We can all look back at the end of the season, and we will. The EPAC heat probably stole away some thunder in the first half of the Atlantic season. And it's rained a ton here all Spring and Summer with only a few breaks here and there (different than 1998 in SE LA). I don't know specifically why because it hasn't been exclusively waves, seabreezes or fronts. Just I guess a lot of Pacific and Gulf moisture available on old boundaries and focusing mechanisms. There's a current burst in the WPAC, and that often precedes one on the EPAC and Atlantic. I've seen conflicting MJO info but maybe we get a favorable or neutral pulse through. I think I guessed 14 NS in the guess contest (don't remember my other #'s off hand), and with Ian named now, another 4 or 5 NS aren't out of the question particularly with models showing some east basin activity.

If we get a pulse of say 3, there could easily be an odd other one or two on either side of the pulse getting to 14/15/16 named systems. The later in September it gets, usually the better for us up this way as far as Majors, so I'm hoping for nothing in the Gulf outside of 92ls remnants for a couple weeks.

That's true too Steve, Florida has gotten hit by Colin and Hermine with the latter much more signifgent (but Colin did have some tornadoes that hit Jacksonville). And Louisiana got hit really bad by the "no-name storm". I still feel sorry for y'all over there and I hope y'all don't get hit by another storm either. Especially a major. As far as the MJO, I've looked at the chart and it currently looks to be in a lull faze worldwide, even with Meranti and Orlene both raging in the W and E-PAC (I might be wrong on that though). And sure, the MJO could go into either of those fazes. We'll have to see. There is a chance for the season to get more active by late month per Joe B but hey, we got Ian. We'll be on the lookout for sure. Overall, this season has been active so far.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF will have improvements in the next few years

It looks like they will do the upgrades by phases as the year it is going to be completed is 2025.

EUROPEAN MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER CENTRE (ECMWF) COMMITS TO PUSHING THE LIMITS OF PREDICTABILITY IN 2025 STRATEGY • Prediction of high-impact weather events to be stretched to up to 2 weeks ahead with large-scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead • Global ensemble forecast resolution to increase by more than 3 times, with the grid size going from 18 km down to 5 km


“Our 2025 ambition raises the international bar. Given the greater likelihood of lifethreatening climate change impacts on the Earth’s weather, we will harness rapidly advancing data availability and technology to stretch the accuracy and range of predictions further and faster. “ECMWF is a shining example of the value of European and global cooperation in the scientific field, and one which has tangible benefits day in, day out for dozens of national economies and millions of people’s daily lives.” The improved forecasts will mean more advance notice of high-impact weather events such as windstorms, floods and heatwaves, enabling national meteorological and emergency services to better protect lives and property. In addition, global-scale anomalies – such as El Niño – would be predictable up to a year ahead.

http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/file ... RATEGY.pdf

[terstorm1012]

they're hiring too for a variety of positions---if anyone wants to work for King Euro http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/jobs/jobs-ecmwf

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS from today, 9/14/16, has a system developing out of the ITCZ around 240 hours and then takes it as a Caribbean Cruiser cyclone at 384 hours. Most likely won't come to pass but as we get closer to the end of September and head into October the focus area to watch for CONUS threats will be from the Western Caribbean. Any trough diving south across the CONUS will pull anything in the Western Caribbean to the North.