ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

It has not made landfall yet, still a couple more hours, most likely overnight.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone else notice that all ships reporting near the system are mysteriously missing all the wind data lol ..

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml

[floridasun78]

1. An area of disturbed weather is moving through the northwestern
Bahamas at 5 to 10 mph. Although some increase in the amount and
organization of associated thunderstorm activity could occur tonight
when the system moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream,
strong upper-level winds and proximity to land are expected to
prevent the development of a tropical cyclone before the disturbance
moves inland over southeastern Florida Tuesday morning. However,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of
the northwestern Bahamas tonight, and over portions of the central
and southern Florida peninsula on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[shortwave]

Disney Dream @ N 28°06' W 080°12' reporting 28 knot winds from the east. 1016.7 mb

Carnival Victory @ N 26°24' W 078°42' reporting 24 knot winds from 210. 1015.4 mb 10 foot waves.

[ronjon]

Curious that NHC says gulf stream will enhance convection - probably worried about a bunch of Storm 2k members posting its a TD darn it, lol. On RAD clear circulation south of grand Bahamas island with convection indeed increasing. This system probably won't approach the coast till dawn. Might get interesting watching radar tonight.

[floridasun78]

Curious that NHC says gulf stream will enhance convection - probably worried about a bunch of Storm 2k members posting its a TD darn it, lol. On RAD clear circulation south of grand Bahamas island with convection indeed increasing. This system probably won't approach the coast till dawn. Might get interesting watching radar tonight.

their say that so wont say maybe td forming maybe one guys their is member storm2ktheir

[Dean4Storms]

Need to keep an eye on this if it re-emerges in the Eastern Gulf far enough South to have a day or so over the water even though shear is expected to be screaming we all know the Gulf is famous for heavily sheared TS's!

[Aric Dunn]

Need to keep an eye on this if it re-emerges in the Eastern Gulf far enough South to have a day or so over the water even though shear is expected to be screaming we all know the Gulf is famous for heavily sheared TS's!

its been running fairly parallel tot he coast the last few hours keeping it over water. this might end up in a post season analysis upgrade. yeah its small but technically meets the definition .. sooo..

[Aric Dunn]

reminds me a lot of TS Jerry in 95. long track sheared wave finally finds a less sheared environment near florida and slightly parallels the coast

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... erry_(1995)

[Blown Away]

Looks a little better on radar...
http://www.wpbf.com/weather/radar

Just issued a Yellow X Warning for my community...

[Steve]

Need to keep an eye on this if it re-emerges in the Eastern Gulf far enough South to have a day or so over the water even though shear is expected to be screaming we all know the Gulf is famous for heavily sheared TS's!

All the resolutions of the early NAM 00z runs show a good soaking for the peninsula and then a 1012-13 low moving toward Apalachicola as a closed low. Meanwhile a 1010 which is the remnant of 92L is in the central Gulf. Not sure on the validity but the pattern is too complex (no surprise for this year with all the stability in the Atlantic) for anything serious. Definitely at least a shot at a TD in the Gulf though and possibly something later on in the west Gulf from 92l but unlikely. Could see a scenario of 93 and 92 and the surface trough acoss the middle of the gulf support a rainy period for the SEUS. In any event, it looks like some widespread 2/3/4" across the peninsula and some isolated bigger totals.

[tpr1967]

Settlement pointe GBI, Bahamas SE wind 24kt gusting to 31kt at 0200Z link below.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

[Hammy]

Based on radar, I say this is a depression at the moment--very clear LLC and convection strengthening over the eastern half near the center.

[JaxGator]

Wow, that radar clearly shows a center and convection firing on the eastern quad. It's the Gulf Stream vs shear it looks like. Though isn't some of the shear helping convection to form as well in this case or no?

[northjaxpro]

Based on radar, I say this is a depression at the moment--very clear LLC and convection strengthening over the eastern half near the center.

I have been watching this closely all day and 93L imo could technically be a tropical depression currently. The system has definetly griwn in size and organized the past 12-24 hours. The LLC appears to be moving nothwest parallel to the Florida East Coast and convection and convection continues to build some. Looks pretty good considering it has had some shear some shear on its trek through the Bahamas. It is an interesting system to monitor.

[Aric Dunn]

it obviosly sheared.. center though is here..
dont get fooled but the curved radar images of the convection. although it develops associated with the LLC it gets removed from the shear. it is however maintaining quite well and is moving NW..
landfall likely around Vero beach to Stuart ish..

[northjaxpro]

Also wind gusted to 33mph in the past hour at the Jax Beach Pier . So, there decent easterly wind gusts going on off the NE Florida coast.currently.

[Steve]

What I can get from the upper air charts is that there is a trough into the Gulf but upper high in the vicinity of 93l. It's not as pronounced but not completely unfavorable at 500 or 700. See for yourself. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/

[Ntxw]

Yeah, it has convection and possible the shear is enhancing it since it is a weak system. No doubt that there is a lot of shear. It's not just 93L you can see the entire environment around it with the convective pattern.

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't rule out a short lived tropical storm in the GOM but a heavily sheared system

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service