ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

looks like its about to cross/ reform back over the water near oak hill.. very interesting how the convection has pulled elongated and reforming over the water.. path of least resistance.. how far offshore does it rotate during this process will be fun to see.

[TheStormExpert]

This is exactly why the U.S. has been so fortunate over the past nearly 11 years. Even Florida has been lucky despite receiving it's 1st hurricane hit in nearly 11 years. Hermine was nothing more than a minimal hurricane thanks to like most landfalling tropical cyclones over the past nearly 11 years waiting to really get going until the very last minute.

Clearly the Tropics aren't what they once were 11 years ago back in seasons like 04/05 and years prior. Even in the quiet period preceding 1995 the Tropics could sustain a decent hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

PRetty clear whats happening right now and fairly amazing looks like its going to swing a little offshore before likely hooking back to the coast if this continues. enough to deepen? lol

[Steve]

:uarrow: This is exactly why the U.S. has been so fortunate over the past nearly 11 years. Even Florida has been lucky despite receiving it's 1st hurricane hit in nearly 11 years. Hermine was nothing more than a minimal hurricane thanks to like most landfalling tropical cyclones over the past nearly 11 years waiting to really get going until the very last minute.

Clearly the Tropics aren't what they once were 11 years ago back in seasons like 04/05 and years prior. Even in the quiet period preceding 1995 the Tropics could sustain a decent hurricane.

This system isn't in the tropics, it's in the subtropics. People have said over and over and over that the MDR was not the primary place to be looking this year. That's in the tropics. They end at 23.5North. This is farther north than that.
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NAM 12Z runs show a lot of wrapping in moisture in the SEUS. Depending on the resolution one looks at, it's either a wet few days for Jacksonville Metro (lower resolution) or really wet up in South Carolina for a few days (4km). Low stays intact over land mostly in those runs.

[Aric Dunn]

that strong curved band from New Smyrna curving down to melbounre offshore from doppler velocities is showing from 35 to 43 kts if it gets even more offshore TS ? lol

[Alyono]

if this were to move more northward and get over the water, I can see it becoming something like Tammy very quickly

[Aric Dunn]

if this were to move more northward, I can see it becoming something like Tammy very quickly

yeah, have to keep watching this reformation here may swing out as it tucks under the convection..

[Aric Dunn]

last few images. it now appears to be pretty much just offshore oak hill and if there is enough rotational effects it could swing 20 or so miles offshore then if it continues the north to NNW motion it has had overnight could stay offshore paralleling the coast again.. could get interesting.

I just find this hilarious for some reason..lol

[Steve]

last few images. it now appears to be pretty much just offshore oak hill and if there is enough rotational effects it could swing 20 or so miles offshore then if it continues the north to NNW motion it has had overnight could stay offshore paralleling the coast again.. could get interesting.

I just find this hilarious for some reason..lol

It's definitely a trip and probably a depression. Looks like some inner circle radar convection just offshore is getting intense.

[wxman57]

It's lacking a well-defined LLC. The rotation is mostly aloft. Surface obs don't indicate much rotation at all. Surface obs across the FL Peninsula to its west are generally light and variable, with SSE-S winds 25-30 kts along the east coast. Looks like it will remain near the coast but inland as it tracks northward.

[northjaxpro]

if this were to move more northward, I can see it becoming something like Tammy very quickly

yeah, have to keep watching this reformation here may swing out as it tucks under the convection..

Yeah, this situation is reminding me of Tammy a lot Aric. Currently getting some good rain right now, which I we do need.
I also see that the LLC has just about re-emerged.back off shore I amazingly. If it gets off shore parallel to the coast, even for a few hours, it may allow 93L just enough to make it to TD status.

[LarryWx]

last few images. it now appears to be pretty much just offshore oak hill and if there is enough rotational effects it could swing 20 or so miles offshore then if it continues the north to NNW motion it has had overnight could stay offshore paralleling the coast again.. could get interesting.

I just find this hilarious for some reason..lol

If it keeps this up, I may have to watch it up here in GA for a potential TD or possibly even a minimal TS, especially since the SST's just offshore (I mean west of the Gulf Stream) are still near season long highs that are solidly above normal (mid 80's). Regardless, I expect really good rains from this over the next few days.

[SeGaBob]

NHC won"t classify it if it does go back over water and organize. They wouldn't have enough time to raise the chances.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC won"t classify it if it does go back over water and organize. They wouldn't have enough time to raise the chances.

raise the chances ? thats funny

[rickybobby]

UCF has canceled classes after 6 pm. No class for me tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

New Smyrna pressure has fallen 2 MB in the last hour or so..

[Evil Jeremy]

Keeping an eye on this in Jacksonville but not expecting anything other than some showers.

[Aric Dunn]

NE wind at New Smyrna as well putting the center just to its SE .

[Steve]

It's lacking a well-defined LLC. The rotation is mostly aloft. Surface obs don't indicate much rotation at all. Surface obs across the FL Peninsula to its west are generally light and variable, with SSE-S winds 25-30 kts along the east coast. Looks like it will remain near the coast but inland as it tracks northward.

It can't be that high up, can it? Intellicast, Weather.com and Unysis all have the Low on the surface plots. Not sure if it's completely closed, but they show NE winds to the SE and SW just to the NW of the low. It's the 14:45Z plot:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.gif

[rickybobby]

The wind has picked up in Port Orange. So far the highest gust was 36 mph about 3 minutes ago.