ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Traveling back north to Orlando from South Florida through Port St Lucie,I have a nice tail wind from the south southwest helping me on my gas mileage
Hey looks like they TD to me.

[NDG]

[Aric Dunn]

next hour New Smyrna should see a wind shift to the N or NNW center looks to be just to its east if not over it.

[LarryWx]

next hour New Smyrna should see a wind shift to the N or NNW center looks to be just to its east if not over it.

I'd love to know the New Smyrna Beach pressure right now. As you noted, it fell nearly 2mb from 11AM to noon. It was just under 1013 mb at noon. This would obviously tell us how strong this low actually is. With that previous rapid fall, could it now be down to something like 1011 or even 1010 mb if there is a tight center?

To compare, the pressure in the Jacksonville area was near 1018 mb and St Augustine near 1017 mb, meaning a pretty decent gradient.

[Aric Dunn]

next hour New Smyrna should see a wind shift to the N or NNW center looks to be just to its east if not over it.

I'd love to know the New Smyrna Beach pressure right now. As you noted, it fell nearly 2mb from 11AM to noon. It was just under 1013 mb at noon. This would obviously tell us how strong this low actually is. With that previous rapid fall, could it now be down to something like 1011 or even 1010 mb if there is a tight center?

To compare, the pressure in the Jacksonville area was near 1018 mb and St Augustine near 1017 mb, meaning a pretty decent gradient.

the center being that it reformed/migrated to the convection is in the process of deepening. im guessing down another MB or fairly steady until it fully tucks in under the convection. we will know shortly.

[Nimbus]

Aric do you think there will be tropical storm warnings for Savannah.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric do you think there will be tropical storm warnings for Savannah.

I have no Idea what the NHC will do.. I would assume so if it gets fully offshore... ? who knows with them..

[Aric Dunn]

pressure holding steady in New Smyrna this hour. once fully offshore(assuming it makes it) and re organized no reason it would not deepen. highly divergent upper environment shear is dropping it would just have to migrate with the convection like 15 to 20 miles offshore..

[SeGaBob]

It seems to have "the look" anyway.

[LarryWx]

Aric do you think there will be tropical storm warnings for Savannah.

Hurricane David back in 1979 had a somewhat similar track in this area of FL as it unexpectedly went back offshore FL near where 93L is (maybe not quite as far inland as 93L though) and went as far as about 25-35 miles offshore allowing it to unexpectedly maintain hurricane strength. It then curved back NNW and unexpectedly onshore south of SAV giving SAV a full fledged hurricane. Though that turn back NNW into the upper GA coast was not forecasted, the NHC fortunately had already had hurricane warnings up for that area. So, it wasn't a complete surprise.

Fortunately, we're not dealing with anything like David right now. So, I'm not at all suggesting anything like a H will occur. However, a minimal tropical storm would not be
out of the question.

Note David's track as opposed to strength: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[JaxGator]

next hour New Smyrna should see a wind shift to the N or NNW center looks to be just to its east if not over it.

I'd love to know the New Smyrna Beach pressure right now. As you noted, it fell nearly 2mb from 11AM to noon. It was just under 1013 mb at noon. This would obviously tell us how strong this low actually is. With that previous rapid fall, could it now be down to something like 1011 or even 1010 mb if there is a tight center?

To compare, the pressure in the Jacksonville area was near 1018 mb and St Augustine near 1017 mb, meaning a pretty decent gradient.

Yep and the pressure is falling (so far). It's just me, but I see a spin around the Cape (which I guess is the center) and most of the convection is heading north and into Florida and Georgia. Been getting it all day and Jax does need the rain but too much.

[tpr1967]

pressure holding steady in New Smyrna this hour. once fully offshore(assuming it makes it) and re organized no reason it would not deepen. highly divergent upper environment shear is dropping it would just have to migrate with the convection like 15 to 20 miles offshore..

Aric,

Lowest pressure last hour in obs was at deland

METAR: KDED [Deland Muni]
METAR: KDED 131655Z AUTO 36010G18KT 7SM VCTS OVC009 25/24 A2990 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E AND S

New Smyrna beach Muni

METAR: KEVB [New Smyrna Beach Mun]
METAR: KEVB 131647Z 14015G32KT 3SM OVC006 27/25 A2991

So seems LLC still inland not yet reformed over water

Just my thoughts

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%-40%

Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that
an area of low pressure is located just inland near Daytona Beach,
Florida. This system continues to produce a large area of showers
and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along or just
offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast. This system is
very close to having the organization required of a tropical
cyclone, and advisories could be initiated later this afternoon.
The low is expected to move north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
today, near and parallel to the northeast coast of Florida.
Regardless of development, strong gusty winds will continue over
portions of the northeast Florida coast today, and heavy rains will
continue to spread over central and northern Florida today and
tonight. Please consult your local National Weather Service office
for additional information on this system, including possible
warnings.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Aric Dunn]

pressure holding steady in New Smyrna this hour. once fully offshore(assuming it makes it) and re organized no reason it would not deepen. highly divergent upper environment shear is dropping it would just have to migrate with the convection like 15 to 20 miles offshore..

Aric,

Lowest pressure last hour in obs was at deland

METAR: KDED [Deland Muni]
METAR: KDED 131655Z AUTO 36010G18KT 7SM VCTS OVC009 25/24 A2990 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E AND S

New Smyrna beach Muni

METAR: KEVB [New Smyrna Beach Mun]
METAR: KEVB 131647Z 14015G32KT 3SM OVC006 27/25 A2991

So seems LLC still inland not yet reformed over water

Just my thoughts

previous hour. New Symrna was 29.90 as well..

[jlauderdal]

Up to 40%-40%

Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that
an area of low pressure is located just inland near Daytona Beach,
Florida. This system continues to produce a large area of showers
and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along or just
offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast. This system is
very close to having the organization required of a tropical
cyclone, and advisories could be initiated later this afternoon.
The low is expected to move north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
today, near and parallel to the northeast coast of Florida.
Regardless of development, strong gusty winds will continue over
portions of the northeast Florida coast today, and heavy rains will
continue to spread over central and northern Florida today and
tonight. Please consult your local National Weather Service office
for additional information on this system, including possible
warnings.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

surprise homebrew

[SeGaBob]

Well that escalated quickly.

[tolakram]

Good grief.

Live visible
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-82&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=yellow

[Aric Dunn]

Good grief.

Live visible
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-82&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=yellow

lol isn't this fun

[SeGaBob]

Is there a way up and out for this or will it come this way?

[Fishing]

This is the best season (tracking wise) in a very long time ! It seems like forever since we've had such unpredictability.