ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Shouldn't we have plenty of surface obs at this point to confirm?

We DO have plenty of surface obs, and none of them confirms 34+kt winds. NHC had the surface center about 30 miles west of Daytona Beach and moving toward the NW (325 deg) at 12 kts. That would keep it well inland.

Yea, convection gusts don't translate to sustained baroclinically driven winds.

[tpr1967]

Yea, the surface low is near Ocala moving NNW and the MLC is displaced to the east along the Coast, expect to see the MLC begin to lose identity tonight as this spins down. If it had one more day over water or moved more Westward toward the Gulf it very well could have made TS status, ran out of water and time!

Pretty obvious to see where surface circulation is on this link below


https://aviationweather.gov/metar/gis

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This has been a tropical depression or storm for most of today. We're gonna need some big post-season changes.

The fact it's inland is irrelevant. NHC has initiated over land before. The difference between this and the FL-LA faux-depression is that the NHC definition states the system has to /originate/ over water. 93L did. The other did not.

[Ivanhater]

Shouldn't we have plenty of surface obs at this point to confirm?

We DO have plenty of surface obs, and none of them confirms 34+kt winds. NHC had the surface center about 30 miles west of Daytona Beach and moving toward the NW (325 deg) at 12 kts. That would keep it well inland.

I thought so...thanks for confirming

[LarryWx]

The lowest Florida pressure I could find at 3 PM was 29.84"/1011 mb well inland at The Villages. The lowest SLP I could find along the coast is Daytona at 29.90"/1013 mb. So, this still isn't stacked at all as others have mentioned due to strong SW shear (well forecasted by models) blowing the convection to the NE. So, it appears there's a MLC just offshore near Daytona but the surface low center is actually well inland. So, the LLC has actually not gone back offshore. A new center would have to develop underneath the MLC/convection for it to be offshore and develop much imo.

[SeGaBob]

It got quiet in here...does anyone think this gets at least a TD classification?

[xironman]

Even if it does not get to a TS, it looks like some people are going to get a ton of rainfall out of this one. I like the idea of Fay, a storm that hates water

[Hammy]

It got quiet in here...does anyone think this gets at least a TD classification?

Highly doubt it, they've been a bit overly hesitant recently to upgrade systems that are close to the coast or inland, but it's certainly going in my personal archive as one.

[LarryWx]

It got quiet in here...does anyone think this gets at least a TD classification?

I don't think it can be given that designation as of yet due to the lack of stacking caused by strong shear from the SW. A new LLC would need to form under the offshore MLC, which isn't impossible.

Meanwhile, the big wx story from this right now is that many in the SE including yourself should get plenty of rain this week from this even if it doesn't become a TC. Together with our heavy from Hermine, SEP rainfall totals are liable to end up quite high.

4 PM update: The Villages, FL, still has the lowest pressure at an even lower 1010 mb. The lowest on the coast remains at 1013 mb (Daytona). So, it is still not stacked due to shear from the SW.

[tpr1967]

Is it me or is the LLC getting elongated more west to east now. Your thoughts.

PS how do you post pics?

Edit more SW to NE

[SeGaBob]

Yeah we've got 4 inches the last couple of days from ordinary storms. (2 Sunday and 2 more yesterday) It seems you may get even more rain Larry according to the latest discussion out of Charleston.

[xironman]

Is it me or is the LLC getting elongated more west to east now. Your thoughts.

PS how do you post pics?

Two for one, go to imgur, click new post and upload the image. Once done click it and get the BBCode link. And yeah it does look funky from the radar.

[otowntiger]

Hardly any rain whatsoever in Orlando today, and now the sun is shining brightly through broken clouds and mostly calm winds downtown. It looks like the local weather forecast for the Orlando metro will certainly be a bust. One of the local stations was predicting up to 3 inches here. Right along the coast however is another story apparently. This is an odd system for sure, very one sided but you certainly can see a very distinct circulation on radar.

[cycloneye]

Special Message from NHC Issued 13 Sep 2016 20:42 UTC

NHC will not be initiating advisories on the low located northwest of Daytona Beach for the 5 PM advisory cycle.

[Hammy]

It got quiet in here...does anyone think this gets at least a TD classification?

I don't think it can be given that designation as of yet due to the lack of stacking caused by strong shear from the SW. A new LLC would need to form under the offshore MLC, which isn't impossible.

Meanwhile, the big wx story from this right now is that many in the SE including yourself should get plenty of rain this week from this even if it doesn't become a TC. Together with our heavy from Hermine, SEP rainfall totals are liable to end up quite high.

4 PM update: The Villages, FL, still has the lowest pressure at an even lower 1010 mb. The lowest on the coast remains at 1013 mb (Daytona). So, it is still not stacked due to shear from the SW.

Stacking isn't much of an issue as far as upgrading given how severely tilted Ian was when upgraded.

NHC will not be initiating advisories on the low located northwest of Daytona Beach for the 5 PM advisory cycle.

Thus continues the absurd inconsistencies in what does and doesn't get upgraded.

[Dean4Storms]

Guess we might better keep an eye on the remnant swirl of 92L while we're at it now with blossoming convection right over it near 27N 90.5W in the Central Gulf.

[LarryWx]

Stacking isn't much of an issue as far as upgrading given how severely tilted Ian was when upgraded.

Good point.

[rickybobby]

The highest wind gust was 55 mph in nsb. There are reports of damage in edgewater.

[JaxGator]

NWS Jax has issued a Gale Warning from Altamatha Sound (GA) to Flagler Beach and the coastal waters.

[SeGaBob]

Only way this gets upgraded now is a a special advisory which won't happen.