ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Starting advisories at 11pm?

[jlauderdal]

Starting advisories at 12am?

why wait until 11...very confusing actually

[Hammy]

Raising the numbers didn't make much sense. I highly doubt they're going to initiate advisories at this point--if they were going to at all it would've been at 5pm. The circulation is getting further inland and by this evening, given this is close to land, I don't see the convection being nearly as strong as it currently is. Wording similar was used with a system as it moved inland in Louisiana and it was neither upgraded nor added post-season.

[JaxGator]

Raising the numbers didn't make much sense. I highly doubt they're going to initiate advisories at this point--if they were going to at all it would've been at 5pm. The circulation is getting further inland and by this evening, given this is close to land, I don't see the convection being nearly as strong as it currently is. Wording similar was used with a system as it moved inland in Louisiana and it was neither upgraded nor added post-season.

Quite possible but it could be different this time. If not, then oh well.

[Evil Jeremy]

TWO raised to 70%? That's how you know Stewart's shift has started. Assuming his shift covers the 11pm advisory cycle, I'm sure he will pull the trigger.

[LarryWx]

Raising the numbers didn't make much sense. I highly doubt they're going to initiate advisories at this point--if they were going to at all it would've been at 5pm. The circulation is getting further inland and by this evening, given this is close to land, I don't see the convection being nearly as strong as it currently is. Wording similar was used with a system as it moved inland in Louisiana and it was neither upgraded nor added post-season.

Actually, the circulation is now closer to getting back over water. It is only barely onshore. Apparently that is the surface center.

[CrazyC83]

If it is at the beach and TS force, why not just issue a Special Advisory now?

[O Town]

seems like there hasn't been much of a west movement all day. Almost east some. The center was over Orlando this morning and now it's on the e coast.

[SeGaBob]

If it is at the beach and TS force, why not just issue a Special Advisory now?

Probably waiting on it to weaken so they don't have to issue anything on it.

[abajan]

TWO raised to 70%? That's how you know Stewart's shift has started. Assuming his shift covers the 11pm advisory cycle, I'm sure he will pull the trigger.

It it's upgraded, it might well be the shortest lived storm in history.

[Nimbus]

Wind strengths have been slowly increasing as it marches north 31 knots sustained.
Aric said if it gets off the coast they should issue TS warnings for JAX/Savannah.

[wxman57]

I still haven't seen any evidence of sustained 1-min TS winds. The NHC mentions gusts to TS strength possible, but that doesn't make it a TS. It's inland west of St. Augustine and should be passing west of Jacksonville in a few hours before moving into Georgia overnight. I could see a 24hr forecast of TD to remnant low in Georgia, but what would be the point?

[tolakram]

Blowup in convection just as the sun sets.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-82&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

live IR

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-82&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=yellow

[JaxGator]

There was a 45 mph wind measured at Vilano Beach. Don't know if sustained or wind gust.

[jdjaguar]

JAx beach ICW location

just got all the deck furniture off the dock and from around the pool.

Winds starting to gust substantially...estimated 30-35

will advise

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I still haven't seen any evidence of sustained 1-min TS winds. The NHC mentions gusts to TS strength possible, but that doesn't make it a TS. It's inland west of St. Augustine and should be passing west of Jacksonville in a few hours before moving into Georgia overnight. I could see a 24hr forecast of TD to remnant low in Georgia, but what would be the point?

The point is scientific accuracy. NHC revised the Best Track to push designation back to 6z this morning, which is much more reasonable. It's been a tropical storm for most of today, as evidenced by 40 mph sustained winds, gusting to 63 mph from a ship offshore and 37 mph sustained winds at Vilano Beach.

[psyclone]

This has been a most interesting system to follow. While I agree with those against issuing advisories, some interesting weather is certainly in store tonight over the JAX CWA. Solid drinking weather for sure. Stay safe and enjoy.

[wxman57]

There was a 45 mph wind measured at Vilano Beach. Don't know if sustained or wind gust.

I had heard of a 45 mph wind GUST. Any thunderstorm could do that out over the water. Doesn't make it a TS.

[SeGaBob]

This might not even make it into Georgia the way it looks now. Moving more North than NNW.

[Aric Dunn]

There was a 45 mph wind measured at Vilano Beach. Don't know if sustained or wind gust.

I had heard of a 45 mph wind GUST. Any thunderstorm could do that out over the water. Doesn't make it a TS.

They clearly have more information than us.. its like religion you just have to have faith lol.