2016 EPAC Season

[talkon]

00z GFS shows 92E becoming Orlene with a W track in 48 hours or so, then a weak CPAC TS in about 90 hours.
Long-range it also shows 2 more W-tracking storms forming in about 10 days.

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think we'll reach the S storm by early October? Personally I don't think it's out of the question if the current high activity continues.

[hurricanes1234]

Our next one?

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the weekend
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Slow development of this system is possible after that time
while it moves generally west-northwestward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Darvince]

omg

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/777497942341066752

[hurricanes1234]

Possible land threat?

A tropical wave located about 500 miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An
area of low pressure is expected to develop in association with the
wave well south of the Baja California peninsula in a day or two.
Any development of low should be slow to occur while it moves
northwestward or northward later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Invest 94E now up.

[Yellow Evan]

A weak area of low pressure located about 1350 miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system should be
slow to occur while it moves slowly westward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF

[hurricanes1234]

Looks like a possible CPAC storm.

An area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is also producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable for some development of this system by early next week
while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[hurricanes1234]

Surprisingly high 5-day chances here. I wonder if this one could become fairly strong?

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred south
or south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system later this
week and weekend while the low moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[galaxy401]

This basin is dead now. So much for any chance of getting to the end of the naming list. I wonder if Matthew is preventing any disturbances from moving in the basin.

[Kingarabian]

This basin is dead now. So much for any chance of getting to the end of the naming list. I wonder if Matthew is preventing any disturbances from moving in the basin.

GFS very bullish the past 2 runs. Shows an outbreak of about 4 systems in the CPAC+EPAC.

[HurricaneRyan]

I think someone mentioned in a different thread that El Nino lingering effects are gone now and that we finally hit a neutral phase (hence Matthew exploding like it has).

Usually when we have a big storm like Matthew, the EPAC is pretty quiet.

[hurricanes1234]

Until this appears ...

An area of disturbed weather is located about 1500 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow
development of this system is possible later this week while it
moves generally westward near 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[hurricanes1234]

With MJO apparently carded to arrive in the western hemisphere soon, we might see a resurgence of EPAC activity?

[euro6208]

The most striking thing about GFS is it no longer develops anything mature starting in the 00Z run into the latest 06Z. It has 2 weak areas of disturbed weather, one of them runs into Mexico.

[Kingarabian]

Euro and GFS largely inconsistent about EPAC activity returning. Some runs the basin is blossoming with TC's then some runs showing nothing but TD's.

[hurricanes1234]

I think we could soon see a return of activity.

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south-southwest or southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula in a few days. Environmental conditions
should be conducive for some development of this system early next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

2. A second area of low pressure could develop several hundred miles
south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico early next week.
Some gradual development of this system is also possible while it
moves generally westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[hurricanes1234]

Wow! Pretty good chance of this becoming our next system. Up to 70% in five days.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a trough
of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by the early or middle part
of next week. The system is expected to move generally west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent