2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

The rebirth of the MJO and monsoon trough will just add fuel to the fire...

[euro6208]

The next 2 names on the list were powerful ones. Chaba was a 155 knot monster that plummeted the Marianas in 2004 but not at peak. Peak gust of 136 mph was recorded in Rota and went on to Japan.

2010 Megi? That 200 mph that recon measured?

Megi
Chaba

[euro6208]

GFS sensing all kinds of formations. It develops a possible typhoon passing through the Marianas then switches to a Major typhoon approaching the far Northern Marianas and even has a high latitude typhoon near Japan then slides it out to sea.

[kala]

[Darvince]

wth so much convection

[euro6208]

Not much action to speak of from the latest models. At least one of the most trustworthy models, GFS , still trying to develop something high latitude.

[1900hurricane]

Next place to watch is probably near Guam in about five days. All the ensemble means are picking up on something trying to get going there.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Indeed, even the very conservative JMA for a couple runs showing something in the P.I sea...



Same with NAVGEM. Megi on the left and Chaba on the right. Very el ninoish as Chaba develops as it enters the Dateline.



CMC very similiar to NAVGEM but develops a 3rd system currently southwest of Guam and hits Luzon and Hainan Island.

[euro6208]

Only 1 storm depicted from EURO and it's trending stronger! Look out Philippines!

[euro6208]

NWS already noticing this...

The last few model runs
remain consistent with developing another disturbance to the east
of the marianas on Wednesday, bringing another round of unsettled
weather back to the region Wednesday evening into the weekend.
Decided to increase cloud cover and introduce thunderstorms to the
forecast for Wednesday night through Saturday for now, while
watching the development of this system over the next couple of
days.

[mrbagyo]

Almost all major numerical models are now showing something would form near the Marianas heading in to next week - initial target is again Luzon up to Taiwan.
For now, I'm just curious about the disorganized convection southwest of Guam which has CMC's support. Some more persistence and it might get tagged.

[euro6208]

WTH? GFS takes the Megi to be and hits the same area where Meranti made landfall?

The WPAC on crack as always and just like EURO, it's trending more south and west.

914 mb!



Taiwan

[euro6208]

Looking forward to the future, GFS develops 2 more systems, Seems to agree with NAVGEM and CMC on the dateline system.

But hold and behold, it develops another system near Guam at super long range, 384 hours and approaching Okinawa at 966mb.

[1900hurricane]

The signal is not as strong, but ensemble means may be trying to pick up the east basin system around the same time as the other one (about four days out now).

[euro6208]

GFS sensing Meranti and Malakas Part 2...

EURO weaker on the latest run.

[dexterlabio]

Do we have the stats for the most number of Japan (mainland) landfalls in a single year?

[1900hurricane]

Do we have the stats for the most number of Japan (mainland) landfalls in a single year?

I don't have the number off the top of my head, but I want to say the year with the most was 2004. That year had many Japanese typhoon strikes.

[NotoSans]

2004 has ten Japan landfalls according to the JMA.

[dexterlabio]

I don't have the number off the top of my head, but I want to say the year with the most was 2004. That year had many Japanese typhoon strikes.

With Malakas about to strike the southern mainland, I thought this year might be catching up with that record. Also if I'm not mistaken, the classic cyclone tracks in the WPAC during an El Nino usually support multiple landfalls in Japan.