WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon
12Z intensity estimate is coming in with 125 kt, which is likely still too high. Interaction with Taiwan is a plenty good reason to break constraints for weakening.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon
I think, though, that we're past the time for complaining about strength estimates. I remember in 2005, that Katrina's last hours were also had overestimated strength, but a weakening category three storm is quite a different thing from Frances/Jeanne than it is for Katrina.
This is likely the strongest storm ever recorded in the Taiwan Straits.
This is likely the strongest storm ever recorded in the Taiwan Straits.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon
AMSU and ADT are between 100 and 105 kt. That's probably about where I would set the 12Z intensity or thereabouts. I do think Meranti is not weakening as quickly now, which could still slate coastal China for a category 3 landfall.
The Himawari-8 floater window has switched over to Malakas.
The Himawari-8 floater window has switched over to Malakas.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon
WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
COLLAPSED AND UNRAVELED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN
CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED
ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.9 TO T6.5.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE
SPAN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND
LAND INTERACTION, AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CHINA, WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, TY MERANTI WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
CHINA NEAR SHANTOU. THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS) WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING IT AS A
SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO LANDFALL IN CHINA WHERE TRACK VARIABILITY IS HIGH DUE
TO THE LAND INTERACTION AND RAPID DISSIPATION.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
COLLAPSED AND UNRAVELED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN
CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED
ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.9 TO T6.5.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE
SPAN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND
LAND INTERACTION, AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CHINA, WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, TY MERANTI WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
CHINA NEAR SHANTOU. THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS) WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING IT AS A
SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO LANDFALL IN CHINA WHERE TRACK VARIABILITY IS HIGH DUE
TO THE LAND INTERACTION AND RAPID DISSIPATION.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon
Just landfalling China coast, has a nice little signature on sat. maybe frictional affects at landfall caused a little last minute intensification.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon
Made landfall as a 90 knots Cat 2 directly into the heart of Xiamen. This region of China is so populated. Over +3 million in Xiamen, over +5 million metro and over +12 million nearby, Quanzhou and Zhangzhou, likely getting some action too...
The entire province where these cities are located, Fujian, is under it's massive canopy... +37.7 million.
Thank God it weakened from it's peak.
The entire province where these cities are located, Fujian, is under it's massive canopy... +37.7 million.

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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon
Kinmen, an island about 2 km east of Xiamen city, recorded a minimum sea level pressure of 950 hPa about 20 minutes before landfall. The central pressure was probably near 945 hPa at the time of landfall. Probably one of the strongest typhoon ever to hit the Fujian province.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon
Surely JTWC underestimated Meranti at 18Z (90kt???). Radar was pretty clear that Meranti had a strong eyewall before landfall. Either 950 or 945 mb pressure can make Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure fomula results in 105 or 110 knots 1-min sustained winds; in fact, land observations also support this intensity. I would say Meranti was a Cat.3 when it made the lanfall.
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06 SuTY SAOMAI | 09 TY LINFA | 10 TY FANAPI | 10 SuTY MEGI | 16 SuTY MERANTI | 19 SuTY LEKIMA | 24 C2 FRANCINE
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Re: RE: Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon
Cunxi Huang wrote:Surely JTWC underestimated Meranti at 18Z (90kt???). Radar was pretty clear that Meranti had a strong eyewall before landfall. Either 950 or 945 mb pressure can make Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure fomula results in 105 or 110 knots 1-min sustained winds; in fact, land observations also support this intensity. I would say Meranti was a Cat.3 when it made the lanfall.
Gradient gradient gradient... The key is that even though the core had possibly reintensified convectively, the gradient may not have been sharp enough in the eyewall to actually produce Cat 3 sustained wind speeds. This is typical of powerful low pressure cyclones after a major core disruption. Though the wind fields grow and extend out farther from the center, the central core rarely regains a sharp enough pressure gradient to sustain the wind speeds typical of the overall lowest pressure reading in the cyclone. The background pressure around the system has also lowered.
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Re: RE: Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon
Windspeed wrote:Cunxi Huang wrote:Surely JTWC underestimated Meranti at 18Z (90kt???). Radar was pretty clear that Meranti had a strong eyewall before landfall. Either 950 or 945 mb pressure can make Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure fomula results in 105 or 110 knots 1-min sustained winds; in fact, land observations also support this intensity. I would say Meranti was a Cat.3 when it made the lanfall.
Gradient gradient gradient... The key is that even though the core had possibly reintensified convectively, the gradient may not have been sharp enough in the eyewall to actually produce Cat 3 sustained wind speeds. This is typical of powerful low pressure cyclones after a major core disruption. Though the wind fields grow and extend out farther from the center, the central core rarely regains a sharp enough pressure gradient to sustain the wind speeds typical of the overall lowest pressure reading in the cyclone. The background pressure around the system has also lowered.
2-minute sustained winds of ~50m/s have been observed, and land observations prior to landfall shows that Meranti had a tight structure and an intact inner core.
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Re: RE: Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon
qscdefb wrote:Windspeed wrote:Cunxi Huang wrote:Surely JTWC underestimated Meranti at 18Z (90kt???). Radar was pretty clear that Meranti had a strong eyewall before landfall. Either 950 or 945 mb pressure can make Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure fomula results in 105 or 110 knots 1-min sustained winds; in fact, land observations also support this intensity. I would say Meranti was a Cat.3 when it made the lanfall.
Gradient gradient gradient... The key is that even though the core had possibly reintensified convectively, the gradient may not have been sharp enough in the eyewall to actually produce Cat 3 sustained wind speeds. This is typical of powerful low pressure cyclones after a major core disruption. Though the wind fields grow and extend out farther from the center, the central core rarely regains a sharp enough pressure gradient to sustain the wind speeds typical of the overall lowest pressure reading in the cyclone. The background pressure around the system has also lowered.
2-minute sustained winds of ~50m/s have been observed, and land observations prior to landfall shows that Meranti had a tight structure and an intact inner core.
Are you in Xiamen?
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical
Seems to have hit as hard as Usagi or Utor and the like, maybe harder... Lots of water images, big time surge?
http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MDc ... 1d8b12b46f
http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MDc ... 1d8b12b46f
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical
shah83 wrote:Seems to have hit as hard as Usagi or Utor and the like, maybe harder... Lots of water images, big time surge?
http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MDc ... 1d8b12b46f
wait a second...are you in China tybbs? i just wonder cause no one here would post a Weixin link!

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06 SuTY SAOMAI | 09 TY LINFA | 10 TY FANAPI | 10 SuTY MEGI | 16 SuTY MERANTI | 19 SuTY LEKIMA | 24 C2 FRANCINE
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical
shah83 wrote:Seems to have hit as hard as Usagi or Utor and the like, maybe harder... Lots of water images, big time surge?
http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3MDc ... 1d8b12b46f
Xiamen is pretty storm surge prone, being at the head of a Bay and given that the waters in the Taiwan Strait are shallow.
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Re: RE: Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Typhoon
euro6208 wrote:qscdefb wrote:Windspeed wrote:Gradient gradient gradient... The key is that even though the core had possibly reintensified convectively, the gradient may not have been sharp enough in the eyewall to actually produce Cat 3 sustained wind speeds. This is typical of powerful low pressure cyclones after a major core disruption. Though the wind fields grow and extend out farther from the center, the central core rarely regains a sharp enough pressure gradient to sustain the wind speeds typical of the overall lowest pressure reading in the cyclone. The background pressure around the system has also lowered.
2-minute sustained winds of ~50m/s have been observed, and land observations prior to landfall shows that Meranti had a tight structure and an intact inner core.
Are you in Xiamen?
No, but I could see the data that's posted on the Chinese forum
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical
A guy drove around in Xiamen at 2 am that day and recorded this super precious video. Take a look.
http://www.meipai.com/media/584058958
http://www.meipai.com/media/584058958
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06 SuTY SAOMAI | 09 TY LINFA | 10 TY FANAPI | 10 SuTY MEGI | 16 SuTY MERANTI | 19 SuTY LEKIMA | 24 C2 FRANCINE
DO NOT use my posts for life and death decisions. For official information, please refer to products from your RSMC and national weather agency.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical
According to the governor and citizens of Batanes, Meranti was the most powerful typhoon to ever impact their area.
As per PDRRMC, there is zero casualty as of this time though there are two fishermen missing.
The Ivatans are the most typhoon prepared citizens of RP by the way.
As per PDRRMC, there is zero casualty as of this time though there are two fishermen missing.
The Ivatans are the most typhoon prepared citizens of RP by the way.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical
JTWC 2016 Best Tracks are now out... https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/web/guest/j ... rn-pacific
170kts (315kph) max 1-min sustained winds for STY Meranti

170kts (315kph) max 1-min sustained winds for STY Meranti


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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:JTWC 2016 Best Tracks are now out... https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/web/guest/j ... rn-pacific
170kts (315kph) max 1-min sustained winds for STY Meranti
Another typhoon ands tied with Haiyan?

Without no recon, the limit for the world's most powerful basin's TC's is 165 to 175 knots. Anything above will most likely be tossed out.
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