ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sancholopez]

How about this? At this point, all this dialect is meanngless. It will do what it does. Or not. GO MOTHER NATURE!!!!!!

[TimeZone]

nhc got close to be hurr by day 5 at 70mph FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0256.shtml?

They're taking the Euro into account I would think based on their forecast

Don't multiple intensity models have this becoming a cane?

[Andrew92]

No matter how many models predict this becomes a hurricane, I wouldn't be at all surprised if this struggles to really ramp up as long as it's south of 20 degrees. The lower latitudes have just not been that favorable this year as a whole. That's not to say it can't intensify at all down there, but Karl may gather more strength easier once it gains a bit more latitude down the road, if shear and dry air aren't unfavorable.

-Andrew92

[TimeZone]

No matter how many models predict this becomes a hurricane, I wouldn't be at all surprised if this struggles to really ramp up as long as it's south of 20 degrees. The lower latitudes have just not been that favorable this year as a whole. That's not to say it can't intensify at all down there, but Karl may gather more strength easier once it gains a bit more latitude down the road, if shear and dry air aren't unfavorable.

-Andrew92

I'm not buying into this becoming anything of significant right now myself. I was just pointing out that the Euro isn't the only model that has this becoming a Hurricane.

[Alyono]

EC much stronger and somewhat north

Odds strongly favor a recurve. More worried about the price of Gilead Sciences than I am this hitting the USA right now. Any impact is many days away

[Cunxi Huang]

Oh ---. Euro +240h 933 mb. Karl really looks like a top cat 4 or even stronger on the ir simulated image +186h.

[arlwx]

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

Water vapor satellite imagery indicates that Karl is moving directly
toward the base of a mid-/upper-level trough while being affected by
at least 20 kt of westerly shear. A recent SSMIS microwave pass
showed that the deep convection remains displaced to the northeast
of the center. Since the structure of the cyclone has not changed
since the last advisory, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The SSMIS data indicated that the center has moved a little north of
previous position estimates, and the initial motion is now 280/11
kt. Karl may gain a little more latitude during the next 12-24
hours, but after that time a strong subtropical ridge is expected to
force the cyclone to move south of due west or possibly west-
southwestward between 36-48 hours. Once it reaches the western
portion of the ridge and intensifies, Karl is likely to again gain
some latitude, turning west-northwestward by days 4 and 5. The
track models all agree on this scenario and keep Karl well to the
east and northeast of the Leeward Islands during the five-day
forecast period. Mainly because of the adjustment in the initial
position, the new NHC track forecast is a little north of the
previous forecast, and it lies closest to an average of the GFS and
ECMWF solutions.

Strong to moderate vertical shear is expected to persist for the
next 24-36 hours, and little to no change in strength is anticipated
during that time. Even after 36 hours, Karl will be moving through
a dry environment over the central tropical Atlantic, but lower
shear and warming sea surface temperatures could allow for at least
gradual strengthening. The intensity models have trended a little
bit higher at the end of the forecast period, and the new NHC
forecast shows Karl potentially reaching hurricane intensity by day
5. This forecast is very close to the SHIPS and LGEM models.

The initial 12-ft sea radii have been expanded considerably on this
advisory based on recent altimeter wave height data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 18.3N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 18.7N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.7N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 18.3N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 17.7N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 17.6N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 19.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 21.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

[GCANE]

Amazing. This thing is running into very dry mid-layer air and shear and yet is firing off off-the-scale convection.

[floridadaze8181]

My gut tells me on this one either it will hit land or it won't.

[GCANE]

Obviously a massive hot-tower on the NE side of the CoC about 3.5 hrs ago

[Kazmit]

Now supposed to reach hurricane strength on day 5, 75mph winds. I'd watch this one Bermuda, you might be right in the recurve zone.

[jlauderdal]

My gut tells me on this one either it will hit land or it won't.

based on modeling this year im sure you will get support for both options...getting close to prime time for Florida...next 6 weeks is the window

[O Town]

With that new NHC track, he will miss the Hebert Box everyone was talking about on previous pages. Anyone that doesn't know or wants to read about the Hebert Boxes.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[tolakram]

0Z Euro. GFS has a similar track, just weaker.

[CFLHurricane]

With that new NHC track, he will miss the Hebert Box everyone was talking about on previous pages. Anyone that doesn't know or wants to read about the Hebert Boxes.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

I'm reasonably confident he'll hit it. The cones have tended to move south and west this season.

[cajungal]

Pretty confident that this will recurve well before the United States.

[JaxGator]

It is rare that any wave off Africa would make it all the way across the basin and esp get in the gulf mid to late September. Usually this time of the year troughs start coming down and recurves it.

Hugo and Jeanne are two big examples of TWs and becoming hurricanes making across the basin this time of year and hitting land. Hope this doesn't repeat those monsters.

They also started out WAY south of 17.0.

Yes, you're right on that one. They started south of the CV's and Karl went through them. However, Karl might take a SW dip before regaining latitude, which I'll keep on eye on. Though I hope it recurves.

[abajan]

With that new NHC track, he will miss the Hebert Box everyone was talking about on previous pages. Anyone that doesn't know or wants to read about the Hebert Boxes.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

Part of the cone is still in Hebert Box 1, though. The only thing is that it's not currently expected to be a major hurricane at that point, which is the other requirement.

[sunnyday]

So does it look at this point, knowing it could change, that Fl is out of the bullseye again?
Thank you to anyone who answers.

[MississippiWx]

Looks like models have trended stronger with Karl in the medium to long term. Thus, a more northward bend in the tracks is being shown this morning. I have a feeling we still can't feel too comfortable until the models have a firm grasp on the upper level environment. If shear turns out to be stronger than currently forecast, Karl will stay on a more southerly/westerly course. If the trend continues then Karl could strengthen more quickly and head out to sea into the weakness. Bermuda might still be at risk at that point. We shall see.