ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/1145 UTC 18.4N 33.7W T1.5/2.0 KARL
16/0600 UTC 18.6N 32.8W T2.0/2.0 KARL

[ConvergenceZone]

Even know there's a 99.99% chance this will recurve away from United States, I would definitely be keeping an eye on this if I lived in Bermuda

[OuterBanker]

I for one am glad that is is forecast to be stronger earlier. Generally it will mean a OTS scenario and the models are reflecting that.
Good ol JB is still predicting that Karl will be in the Bahamas and using Gloria and Floyd as a comparable. Neither was a fond memory in NC.
I will be in Myrtle Beach the week of the 25th and I don't want to cut short or cancel my vacation.
Last year we were on vacation at the Biltmore and had to cut short our vacation because of Joaquin (if we had just stuck with the Euro).
We have already had our storm this year and have no desire to deal with another.

So as you can see I'm predicting that Karl will go out to sea. Without prejudice of course.

[ConvergenceZone]

I for one am glad that is is forecast to be stronger earlier. Generally it will mean a OTS scenario and the models are reflecting that.
Good ol JB is still predicting that Karl will be in the Bahamas and using Gloria and Floyd as a comparable. Neither was a fond memory in NC.
I will be in Myrtle Beach the week of the 25th and I don't want to cut short or cancel my vacation.
Last year we were on vacation at the Biltmore and had to cut short our vacation because of Joaquin (if we had just stuck with the Euro).
We have already had our storm this year and have no desire to deal with another.

So as you can see I'm predicting that Karl will go out to sea. Without prejudice of course.

I like JB, but he wouldn't be JB if he didn't predict 1 or 2 storms to traverse the entire Atlantic and hit the US as a hurricane. He's great entertainment though, so I still listen to him. He's a funny guy. I've followed him since back in his bodybuilding days

[chaser1]

So does it look at this point, knowing it could change, that Fl is out of the bullseye again?
Thank you to anyone who answers.

Hey there "Sunny".... Correct, Florida is out of the bullseye but that only makes me nervous lol. The overall model performances this year have been eratic. Climatology would suggest that Karl would be most likely to recurve prior to being a threat to the U.S. but anytime you see a tropical cyclone begin to move south of west (as is forecast), one need to potentially treat this as a strong tropical wave west of the CV Islands with the potential to strengthen as it approaches 45-50W. Bottom line, this season has proven ample capacity for tropical systems to flirt with the Lesser Antilles and the Southeast U.S. I think that we simply need to wait until Karl reaches 50W before really having that solid of a handle on its ultimate longer range motion. As for us in Florida, I'd say that our biggest risk of impact this year might come during the last few days of this month or in October from the W. Caribbean.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hard for a storm of any intensity to approach the US if one believes the 00z ECMWF 500mb height forecast, especially one that's likely to be an intensifying hurricane.

[AutoPenalti]

Shear just ripped this apart again.

[Hurricaneman]

Shear just ripped this apart again.

Thats probably going to happen until 45W that is when I think it will come together

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[chaser1]

GFS 12Z showing Karl a tad further south at 90 hr.'s (link below). From there out however, the GFS moves Karl basically Northwest to a point well north of Puerto Rico. Throughout the forecast, Karl seemingly never strengthens greater than 1010 mb. On the other hand, the NAVGEM which for 7 consecutive runs has Karl a further south and much stronger. In fact, the NAVGEM is quite close to the EURO in forecast intensity however last nights EURO recurves Karl prior to threatening the Leewards while the 06Z NAVGEM implies a potential risk to the islands. Interesting to see how the 12Z EURO and NAVGEM runs sway in terms of intensity and latitude.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=160

[Kazmit]

One notable change is how far south Karl will reach before it starts it's recurve. The NHC cone is farther north, and this is what they say in the latest discussion:

Karl is forecast to turn more to the west and south-of-west this
weekend as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of the
cyclone. However, the current interaction of Karl with the mid- to
upper-level trough has not been well forecast, and Karl probably
will not get as far to the south as expected yesterday.

[Cunxi Huang]

12Z
Global/hurricane/consensus models, 120 hrs track w/ intensity v time

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z GFS is pretty much the same. Bermuda is still in play but this system has an escape route now on all models.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models are staying true to my theory of the "new Atlantic" in which the storms stay relatively weak or go OTS. Has held true for the most part for 10 years plus now and should continue for awhile. I would give Karl a .000000001% chance of affecting the US coastline. Bermuda may have to deal with it though.

[centuryv58]

Models are staying true to my theory of the "new Atlantic" in which the storms stay relatively weak or go OTS. Has held true for the most part for 10 years plus now and should continue for awhile. I would give Karl a .000000001% chance of affecting the US coastline. Bermuda may have to deal with it though.

A new Atlantic? I'd wait a bit before going out on that limb.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models are staying true to my theory of the "new Atlantic" in which the storms stay relatively weak or go OTS. Has held true for the most part for 10 years plus now and should continue for awhile. I would give Karl a .000000001% chance of affecting the US coastline. Bermuda may have to deal with it though.

A new Atlantic? I'd wait a bit before going out on that limb.

Well I would agree with you on that one if it were still 2014. However, it has been 4 years of slop storms and shear no matter the ENSO values. This season we seen shear and dry air together which has created death traps for wannabe TCs. Karl could become a hurricane but it will get picked up by a trough. Just my opinion and I will leave it at that.

[TheStormExpert]

At this point I'd say Karl is a definite recurve only posing a significant threat to possibly Bermuda on it's way out to sea. It's extremely hard to get a tropical cyclone to make it all the way to the U.S. East Coast in late September especially at the latitude Karl is already at.

[galaxy401]

Models are staying true to my theory of the "new Atlantic" in which the storms stay relatively weak or go OTS. Has held true for the most part for 10 years plus now and should continue for awhile. I would give Karl a .000000001% chance of affecting the US coastline. Bermuda may have to deal with it though.

A new Atlantic? I'd wait a bit before going out on that limb.

Well I would agree with you on that one if it were still 2014. However, it has been 4 years of slop storms and shear no matter the ENSO values. This season we seen shear and dry air together which has created death traps for wannabe TCs. Karl could become a hurricane but it will get picked up by a trough. Just my opinion and I will leave it at that.

So you are upset that this storm isn't going to hit the US? If we have a hurricane that stays out at sea, shouldn't you be happy then?

[tolakram]

Models are staying true to my theory of the "new Atlantic" in which the storms stay relatively weak or go OTS. Has held true for the most part for 10 years plus now and should continue for awhile. I would give Karl a .000000001% chance of affecting the US coastline. Bermuda may have to deal with it though.

It this like the new economy of the late 90's? It's a silly thing to say, there is no science behind it, and it lends to a false sense of security.

[SapphireSea]

There is no new Atlantic. We are seeing a pretty true to climatology Atlantic. It's September and trough ridge pattern just progressed from stagnation a month ago. Look back at history there is compelling evidence that strong W Atlantic ridging or E Atlantic ridging is prohibitive for development due to strong east flow at surface and weaker flow aloft. Progressive toughing off east US coast generally lends itself to easing of shear and dry air. Major landfall storms outside of Bermuda and islands (US mainland) are less than 10 percent and hover around it. The science of every 4 year major in Florida has been in question even during crazy late 90s. The NAO has to go negative sooner rather than later too.

[Alyono]

hot garbage EC is now very similar to the MU in that it shows weakening through 4 days