ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Models are staying true to my theory of the "new Atlantic" in which the storms stay relatively weak or go OTS. Has held true for the most part for 10 years plus now and should continue for awhile. I would give Karl a .000000001% chance of affecting the US coastline. Bermuda may have to deal with it though.

How do you figure that "New Atlantic theory" might play out during October's?

[WeatherEmperor]

hot garbage EC is now very similar to the MU in that it shows weakening through 4 days

You think the Euro's failure is worse or the same compared to Hermine?

[tolakram]

I'm not a met but the Euro is behaving very similarly to the way it did with Hermine. 0Z ramps it up, 12z not so much. On/off/on/off.

The big difference here is that even if it stays weak both models show an eventual recurve.

[Alyono]

hot garbage EC is now very similar to the MU in that it shows weakening through 4 days

You think the Euro's failure is worse or the same compared to Hermine?

same physical reason. Hot garbage model cannot properly handle convection in a sheared environment with its resolution. Having issues with Julia as well

[stormlover2013]

LOL EURO HATER LOL..all my meteorologist love the euro and they would called it laughable calling the euro garbage lol

[HurricaneBelle]

The constant whining about every invest not turning into a major hurricane by the same people is getting very tiresome. If you want to live in 2005, invent a time machine and go back there.

Say what you will about Joe Bastardi but his line "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got" should be kept in mind. This is a forum for tropical weather enthusiasts, but lately seems to be overtaken by tropical weather unenthusiasts.

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge still firm in place for this time of year. We have still a long ways to go for any actual model consistency.

[TimeZone]

LOL EURO HATER LOL..all my meteorologist love the euro and they would called it laughable calling the euro garbage lol

The Euro hasn't performed since it was "updated" recently. Quite frankly, it has been garbage.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/776854143604518912

[Cunxi Huang]

Euro: generating...
...an hour later...
Euro: oops turned out Karl won't be a major hurricane. sorry my st2k fellows.

[tarheelprogrammer]

A new Atlantic? I'd wait a bit before going out on that limb.

Well I would agree with you on that one if it were still 2014. However, it has been 4 years of slop storms and shear no matter the ENSO values. This season we seen shear and dry air together which has created death traps for wannabe TCs. Karl could become a hurricane but it will get picked up by a trough. Just my opinion and I will leave it at that.

So you are upset that this storm isn't going to hit the US? If we have a hurricane that stays out at sea, shouldn't you be happy then?

No just expressing my views on what will happen with this storm. I thought that is what the forum is for. I live on the coast and again I stress I am more than happy with a quiet Atlantic. I am also a TC fanatic. However, it is just telling the plain old truth that in recent years the Atlantic has been pathetic. People hate hearing the truth but it is a statistical fact by ACE numbers and quality of storms. At least it is my opinion and the opinion of many experts in the field so I am not alone. Karl could become a decent storm I even mentioned this. To each their own though.

[centuryv58]

Ridge still firm in place for this time of year. We have still a long ways to go for any actual model consistency.

But where is that "permanent trough" that what's his name says is there??

[GCANE]

200mb PV Anomaly is sitting right on top of Karl.

No chance that it can spin up like this.

From what I see on the GFS forecast, Karl will continue to track through a challanged UL environment.

IMHO, this will keep Karl tracking due west at least for the next 144 hrs.

[amawea]

At this point I'd say Karl is a definite recurve only posing a significant threat to possibly Bermuda on it's way out to sea. It's extremely hard to get a tropical cyclone to make it all the way to the U.S. East Coast in late September especially at the latitude Karl is already at.

Hurricane Inez hit the Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida, and Mexico in late September of 1966. She made it all the way across the Atlantic from the coast of Africa. I know, that was a long time ago and I don't know what the atmospheric setup was back in 1966 but I guess that was one of the 10% storms that made it.

[JtSmarts]

The constant whining about every invest not turning into a major hurricane by the same people is getting very tiresome. If you want to live in 2005, invent a time machine and go back there.

Say what you will about Joe Bastardi but his line "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got" should be kept in mind. This is a forum for tropical weather enthusiasts, but lately seems to be overtaken by tropical weather unenthusiasts.

This is why the "foe" feature is a great asset. On Karl, I really hope he gets it together and adds a ton of ACE. 11/5/2 would look pretty good for Mid-Late September.

[emeraldislenc]

Hurricane Hugo made it all the way across too.

[Blown Away]

12z Navgem... Strong Cane with slow NW crawl at 180 hours...

[Blown Away]

Shear hitting Karl hard... Naked LLC... Maybe a WSW jog/wobble/trend??

[sunnyday]

Thank you, Chaser, for your reply....

[Kazmit]

Oh ---. Euro +240h 933 mb. Karl really looks like a top cat 4 or even stronger on the ir simulated image +186h.

Where did you get that simulated image from?