ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Extract of 5 PM discussion

Karl continues to move westward or 275/13 kt. Karl is expected to
move westward along the southern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores
ridge for the next couple of days, followed by a west-northwestward
motion on days 3-5 as the cyclone approaches a weakness in the ridge
located between Bermuda and the Bahamas. The global and regional
models are in general agreement on this track scenario through 72
hours, After that time, the models diverge significantly with the
GFS, Navy COAMPS, and GFDL models taking Karl farther west as a
weaker and more shallow cyclone, whereas the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF
models move Karl more northwestward as a stronger and deeper system.
For now, the official forecast track remains a compromise between
these extremes, close to the consensus model solutions, due to the
lack of a stable, consistent run-to-run forecast by the models.

[abajan]

CMC a bit more north, making what looks like landfall on Bermuda as a minimal 64kt hurricane

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 12L_28.png ...

A minimal hurricane with 962 millibars? Is that correct?

[Kazmit]

CMC a bit more north, making what looks like landfall on Bermuda as a minimal 64kt hurricane

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 12L_28.png ...

A minimal hurricane with 962 millibars? Is that correct?

Sorry. I usually go by max winds, not pressure. It seems strange that a 962 mbar hurricane has such low winds.

[Alyono]

Karl may have regained a circulation, but it had better improve its convective activity if it expects to keep it.

Seems like the MU scenario of this reverting between a depression and a wave is verifying nicely

[floridasun78]

12z GFDL.



12z HWRF.

look this run of hwrf you see high to north no way going go that far north if models is right

[floridasun78]

GFDL-P show blocking high too

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Even though that may have looked like a hot-tower as sunset, IR indicates it was relatively weak and didn't last long.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[gatorcane]

GFDL-P show blocking high too http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 12L_22.png

Did you mean to post the 18Z GFDL-P? It does show basically a WNW movement through the entire run with no sign of a turn. There might even be west movement between 120 and 126 hours. The turn is probably just a little beyond 126 hours.

[cycloneye]

Wow.these models are way bullish.

[cycloneye]

No change at 00z Best Track:

AL, 12, 2016091900, , BEST, 0, 182N, 456W, 35, 1006, TS

[Kazmit]

A notable increase in intensity again.

[JaxGator]

Karl may have regained a circulation, but it had better improve its convective activity if it expects to keep it.

Seems like the MU scenario of this reverting between a depression and a wave is verifying nicely

What are your thoughts of the GFS showing a stronger storm south of Bermuda at 12z? Don't know if it's showing it now though.

[GlennOBX]

I know nothing is 100% definite, ever, with these things. That being said, is the recurve as close to definite as it gets, or should I still be planning on checking supplies?

[stormreader]

GFDL-P show blocking high too http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 12L_22.png

Did you mean to post the 18Z GFDL-P? It does show basically a WNW movement through the entire run with no sign of a turn. There might even be west movement between 120 and 126 hours. The turn is probably just a little beyond 126 hours.

Fl and East Coast, wouldn't want to see it get much closer than that image.

[Alyono]

Karl may have regained a circulation, but it had better improve its convective activity if it expects to keep it.

Seems like the MU scenario of this reverting between a depression and a wave is verifying nicely

What are your thoughts of the GFS showing a stronger storm south of Bermuda at 12z? Don't know if it's showing it now though.

I want to make sure this clears the Caribbean first. This could reform to the south based upon the WINDSAT

[gatorcane]

Saved loop, convection firing more to the south near the center:

[gatorcane]

Anybody notice the ECMWF seems to be spinning off a secondary weak vorticity to the south of the main vorticity in today's run? I also noticed the GFS was doing something similar in yesterday's runs but thought it was some kind of glitch or something. What exactly would cause this I wonder?

[stormreader]

Karl may have regained a circulation, but it had better improve its convective activity if it expects to keep it.

Seems like the MU scenario of this reverting between a depression and a wave is verifying nicely

What are your thoughts of the GFS showing a stronger storm south of Bermuda at 12z? Don't know if it's showing it now though.

I want to make sure this clears the Caribbean first. This could reform to the south based upon the WINDSAT

Could you give a little more info, please? Interested.

[stormreader]

Did notice that TS activity does seem to be popping further south out ahead of the storm. And this is after it looked like the South dip of earlier had ended.