2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS also bombs out a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific at the same time as the storm in the Caribbean develops and strengthens.

Until I see the GFS continue to gradually bring in the timeframe over the next few days and the Euro come on board starting to show something in it's long range I'm not buying into it just yet.

[blp]

GFS ensembles continue to be more bullish now earlier on with development in the E. Carribean.

[HurricaneFan]

So which Tropical Wave is the Caribbean Cruiser?,the one at 3E or the one at 20E inside of Africa now?

[gatorcane]

So which Tropical Wave is the Caribbean Cruiser?,the one at 3E or the one at 20E inside of Africa now?

It looks like the wave over Western Nigeria which looks pretty vigorous looking at the latest loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

The GFS has it moving off Africa in the Thu/Fri timeframe.

[Hurricaneman]

Its time for the 0zGFS lets see if the wave around the Meridian continues to develop around 240hrs or becomes nothing on this run

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[blp]

Its time for the 0zGFS lets see if the wave around the Meridian continues to develop around 240hrs or becomes nothing on this run

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00z GFS develops this much earlier. Looks like a strong run in the works unless it runs into SA.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm starting to feel like those in the southern Lesser antilles need to keep an eye on this feature especially if other models come aboard

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[Hurricaneman]

Looks like if you go out farther on the 0zGFS this skims the north coast of South America

It looks like after hr 198 it does just that

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[blp]

That looks like a hurricane passing through. Looks like it skims SA this is going to be a very strong run.

That thing is so far south that is the only way you won't get an OTS.

[Hurricaneman]

That looks like a hurricane passing through. Looks like it skims SA this is going to be a very strong run.

Where do you think it will end up in this run

[blp]

That looks like a hurricane passing through. Looks like it skims SA this is going to be a very strong run.

Where do you think it will end up in this run

In a bad place. I think between Yucatan and Cuba heading north as a monster.

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS has a weak TS skimming the north coast of South America likely headed for Central America if I had to guess.

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS has a weak TS skimming the north coast of South America likely headed for Central America if I had to guess.

starts gaining latitude at 276

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[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS has a weak TS skimming the north coast of South America likely headed for Central America if I had to guess.

starts gaining latitude at 276

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Could miss Florida to the east but there appears to be no big weakness.

[Hurricaneman]

looking at the 500mb at 336 this would be up through cuba then the Bahamas then out

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[TheStormExpert]

Heading for a trip up the spine of Florida @384hrs.

[Hurricaneman]

I was wrong, looks like with that steering pattern it would ride up the west coast of Florida

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[Hurricaneman]

Heading for a trip up the spine of Florida @384hrs.

Didnt Irene do that in 1999

[TheStormExpert]

Heading for a trip up the spine of Florida @384hrs.

Didnt Irene do that in 1999

Irene made landfall on the extreme SW tip of Florida then crossed the state exiting around Jupiter, FL I believe. Similar to tracks like Wilma, Charley, etc. with that SW to NE projectory.

I'm still not buying the GFS, conditions have been too hostile basin-wide during the peak of the season. If the GFS doesn't drop it within a few days I'll pay some more attention.

[blp]

Well that will wake some people up. I think we need to see what the good Ole Euro has to say. My guess is not much on this next run. The Euro is slower to pick this up.

FWIW the CMC shows it but further north approaching the islands as a Depression possibly but looks like an OTS.

It either has to stay weak or go super south like the GFS to get into the Carribean.

GFS still looKs suspicious. That is not a common track.