Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Dean4Storms]

If this makes it to the Western Carib. Sea there remains some of the highest TCHP in the whole basin so we could see a rapid intensification scenario play out there if wind shear and moisture is favorable!

[Alyono]

the vort is looking weaker through 108 hours compared to the previous run

but become well defined at 120 hours

[WeatherEmperor]

the vort is looking weaker through 108 hours compared to the previous run

Yup I see it too lol. Another model fail in the making...perhaps??

EDIT: Aaaaand just like that it starts getting a bit stronger at 126hrs lol.

[gatorcane]

Doesn't look much different so far from the 06z run out through 126 hours so far.

[Alyono]

holy southward shift by the MU. This is going about 200 miles south of Trinidad

[LarryWx]

Per the 12Z GFS hour 180 hour map, the eastern US seaboard's upper setup is far different from prior runs with a stubborn upper ridge and attendant sfc ridge hanging on stubbornly about 500 miles west of the 6Z run. I'd expect this, alone, without even looking at where Pouch 39L is on this run, to result in a far different solution near the CONUS near the end of the run with regard to the pouch. I don't mean that I expect the ridge to hold there that long.

[Hurricaneman]

holy southward shift by the MU. This is going about 200 miles south of Trinidad

True, but the op runs seem to be south of the ensemble mean for the last several runs so I say let's wait and see what the ensembles say because if they are north then this may be a trash run

[WeatherEmperor]

Much weaker on this run at 204hrs.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the vort makes landfall in Guyana then crosses a good part of Venezuela before it emerges in the Caribbean but somehow still manages to get it's act together as it heads towards Cuba as a strong TS .

[LarryWx]

Per the 12Z GFS hour 180 hour map, the eastern US seaboard's upper setup is far different from prior runs with a stubborn upper ridge and attendant sfc ridge hanging on stubbornly about 500 miles west of the 6Z run. I'd expect this, alone, without even looking at where Pouch 39L is on this run, to result in a far different solution near the CONUS near the end of the run with regard to the pouch. I don't mean that I expect the ridge to hold there that long.

Sure enough, the pouch runs into a new SE US ridge and is blocked in the GOM instead of going NE into FL into a weakness.

I will say this. There's a whole lot of E CONUS ridging on this run. That could be a recipe for JB's famous "ridge over troubled waters" homebrew below the ridge though nothing like that shows on this run.

[jlauderdal]

Careful not to get burned by 300+HR GFS. The way the models have been this season I'd be cautious of any solution Let alone 300 hrs. Example Karl um yea still waiting for those favorable conditions.

+1 on this. Even Lixion Avila hinted at the NHC's disappointment with the models performance in regards to Karl in their 5am discussion. In terms of development for this wave, I'll believe it when I see it.

lixion avila is currently in nowcast mode

[PTrackerLA]

GFS 12z run ends, this would be quite a scenario looks like it would get turned north pretty soon by an approaching trough.

[OntarioEggplant]

12Z run reminds me of Opal a bit with earlier formation.

[SFLcane]

No mode here jlauderdale just reality of the Atlantic basin last 3-5 seasons. Eveything is a struggle. I don't but anything being shown until there is s bonified TC I bet the GFS drops this soon

[cycloneye]

One thing that operational GFS has been consistent is about since it began to show this (September 14 at 18z run) how low in latitude it has been in all the runs.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it me or is the GFS each run pushing back the development timeframe little by little?

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or is the GFS each run pushing back the development timeframe little by little?

And the last few runs of the euro have been around 12 to 13n so which will be right lets hope not something in between and yes development is pushed back because it runs into South America

[LarryWx]

Is it me or is the GFS each run pushing back the development timeframe little by little?

Perhaps on the development, but various runs have been showing a well developed TC in the western Caribbean TC on 10/4 since Sunday's 18Z run (when the 384 hour map went only to 10/4). So, I see no time slippage in that respect.

[cycloneye]

12z GEFS ensembles are different in latitude.

[stormlover2013]

reminds me of hurricane lili