Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

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OntarioEggplant
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#121 Postby OntarioEggplant » Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z GEFS ensembles are different in latitude.

http://oi66.tinypic.com/5uo1l0.jpg


It's going to hit Hispaniola isn't it.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#122 Postby Fego » Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:38 pm

:uarrow:
Would any Storm2K member care to explain the difference between the GFS, GEFS and GEFS Ensemble Member?
I understand that the GEFS Ensemble member shows the differents runs of the model based on the parameters included in each run, and that the GEFS shows the average run.

Thanks in advance.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#123 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:47 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z GEFS ensembles are different in latitude.

http://oi66.tinypic.com/5uo1l0.jpg


It's going to hit Hispaniola isn't it.


The GFS ensemble mean is agreeing with something in track between the Euro and GFS operational so it lends more credence to the Euro track solution

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#124 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:08 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Is it me or is the GFS each run pushing back the development timeframe little by little?



nope. Been consistent and in the same place. Only issue this time is more land interaction
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#125 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:09 pm

Alyono wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Is it me or is the GFS each run pushing back the development timeframe little by little?



nope. Been consistent and in the same place. Only issue this time is more land interaction


Whats your take on this? Do you side with the GFS solution or Euro solution?
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#126 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:38 pm

FWIW...the 12z Euro so far at 168hrs is much much weaker. Barely a trace of vorticity approaching the islands lol
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#127 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:40 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:FWIW...the 12z Euro so far at 168hrs is much much weaker. Barely a trace of vorticity approaching the islands lol



It's back at 50W, just where it was at 0Z
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#128 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:45 pm

Alyono wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:FWIW...the 12z Euro so far at 168hrs is much much weaker. Barely a trace of vorticity approaching the islands lol



It's back at 50W, just where it was at 0Z


also definitely farther south this run but farther north than the GFS, what the euro has here could be a worst case scenario as it would avoid all landmasses except for a few small islands
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#129 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:57 pm

curve ball from the EC

It now has 2 lows in the Caribbean
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#130 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:59 pm

The 12Z ECMWF has an organizing low heading towards the Western Caribbean ready to make a turn northwest and then north which would be a classic October setup. How the run ends below showing 500mb height anomalies:

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#131 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:01 pm

Alyono wrote:curve ball from the EC

It now has 2 lows in the Caribbean


The one to the west is the one the GFS is showing too and also has an escape route to the north of it where it could go to the GOM and possibly also somewhere in Florida

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Last edited by Hurricaneman on Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#132 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:02 pm

Alyono wrote:curve ball from the EC

It now has 2 lows in the Caribbean


It appears to me the one further west is Pouch 39L. Do you think that is correct? In any case, it looks like the Euro is coming a bit more in line with the GFS in terms of developing further south.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#133 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:06 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Alyono wrote:curve ball from the EC

It now has 2 lows in the Caribbean


It appears to me the one further west is Pouch 39L. Do you think that is correct? In any case, it looks like the Euro is coming a bit more in line with the GFS in terms of developing further south.


but not quite as far south as the GFS through the eastern Caribbean so if this comes to pass then we may have a big problem in the eastern GOM and maybe even Florida so heres my area of concern from New Orleans to Fort Myers

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#134 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:10 pm

Another thing of worry is we seem to be getting a consensus on 39L developing into a named system in the Caribbean, I sincerely hope this is not the storm that ends the major US landfall drought of 11 years

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#135 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:15 pm

what I gather from this is nothing, until we have a system we won't know anything, also euro and GFS has been flip flopping on the high pressure in SE
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#136 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:29 pm

What is everyone getting all excited about?

The GFS has a significant tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean and GoM 300hrs. and beyond.

The Euro barely has a weak 1009mb low in the Caribbean @240hrs.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#137 Postby blp » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:50 pm

Ukmet is little stronger now. So it is now coming into view on the Ukmet approaching the middle part of the islands.

So you have all the major models fully on board.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#138 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:52 pm

Wave is building convection on west side tonight as it nears the coast off Africa. The center of the wave axis is further east.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#139 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:57 pm

i wait until we invest before i start looking at models runs
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa (Pouch 39L)

#140 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:09 pm

seems like the 18zGFS is showing more vorticity than the last couple of runs at 40W, that could indicate a stronger system later in the run

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