Texas Fall-2016

[Tireman4]

Cat 5 in the Gulf....LOL

[Tireman4]

From HGX this morning...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211024
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The passage of the weak cool front has brought drier and slightly
cooler air to SE TX overnight/this morning. However with the low-
er dewpoints (along with clear skies/calm winds) we will also see
some patchy fog across the area through the mid morning hours. Of
note over the nearshore waters, a couple of showers did manage to
develop (moving to the SW). Despite the cooler (than it has been)
start to the day, high temps this afternoon are still expected to
be slightly above normal. However heat indicies should remain be-
low critical levels given the drier air mixing into the region.

Rain chances still progged to return to the region later tonight/
early tomorrow morning via the south as deeper moisture begins to
move in from the Gulf. With the surface high moving off to the NE
and pressure falling over the Rockies, onshore winds will develop
late tonight and slowly strengthen through Sat (as a storm system
develops and moves into western Central Plains). No major changes
with the chance POPs already in the grids for this time.

While in much better agreement with each other with this run...we
are still seeing a lot of discrepancies with extended models from
previous runs. The consensus remains with a highly amplified slow
moving upper low/trof developing out west Sun before it begins to
slowly translate east with an associated cold front. (!!!) Storms
along/ahead of this boundary will keep POPs elevated Mon/Mon nite.
Confidence levels on this panning out: muted optimism. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Northeasterly flow in place this morning with 1-2 foot seas.
Isolated showers a good bet through the morning hours with what
appears to be a boundary from GLS southeastward. Winds should be on
the increase Thursday through Saturday and might even flirt with
SCEC well offshore Friday evening and Saturday evening. Seas should
build to 3 to 5 feet with a long SE fetch. A little more confidence
that first potent cold front expected to move offshore
Monday...still unsettled on rain chances and timing but overall
pattern looks conducive to pushing the front into the Gulf. Offshore
winds (moderate) prevail Tue-Wed.
45
&&

.Aviation...
Patchy fog leading to rapid fluctuations in VISBY at area airports.
VISBY ranging from 1/2 mi to 6. This pattern should probably
continue through 12-13z then with dry column above expect rapid
warmup this morning with SCT CU rapidly becoming high based by this
afternoon. Can`t rule out some showers for HOU/SGR/LBX during the
afternoon and will likely add VCSH in the upcoming TAF package.
Patchy fog will likely return tonight with warm front poised near
the coast and may see some lower cigs as well from CLL-GLS.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 72 94 75 91 / 0 0 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 93 73 92 75 89 / 0 10 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 89 81 87 / 10 10 20 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Ralph's Weather]

I am gonna go with Sept 21st for the first 59. I expect it to correspond to a recurving typhoon as usual. I'll say Oct 12th for the first 49. Heck while I'm at it I'll say Nov 8th for the first freeze. Looks like we will be looking at a -EPO and cool ENSO cold season so repeated cold shots and near normal precip seems likely. So glad it is finally Fall though early Sept in Texas is not really Fall like, but it is on the doorstep.

Missed the first 59 date, I was at 66 this morning. Looks like it will be early next week for most of Texas.

[Ntxw]

Sunday will be cool but a little humid. Monday into Tuesday now that's more fall like! 60s and 70s with dews below 50...I can feel it now

And with that, I still pitch that forecasting beyond 5-7 days will likely result in large errors for awhile.

[Tireman4]

Sunday will be cool but a little humid. Monday into Tuesday now that's more fall like! 60s and 70s with dews below 50...I can feel it now

And with that, I still pitch that forecasting beyond 5-7 days will likely result in large errors for awhile.

Larry Cosgrove is saying early October for us..(Houston)...ughh

[dhweather]

T
and we end the run with a Cat 5 in the Gulf... that's right, hurricane season isn't over.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_52.png

Glorious, isn't it ?

[Brent]

Change is coming:

[Houstonia]

T
and we end the run with a Cat 5 in the Gulf... that's right, hurricane season isn't over.

Glorious, isn't it ?

So... not taking the Cat 5 seriously, but what's up with that? Is there something predicted to be brewing during that time?

[Brent]

T
and we end the run with a Cat 5 in the Gulf... that's right, hurricane season isn't over.

Glorious, isn't it ?

So... not taking the Cat 5 seriously, but what's up with that? Is there something predicted to be brewing during that time?

The GFS takes the pouch still over Africa and forms it down the road in the Caribbean(and winds up in the Gulf at 384 hours), but obviously it's pure fantasy land.

[Houstonia]

Glorious, isn't it ?

So... not taking the Cat 5 seriously, but what's up with that? Is there something predicted to be brewing during that time?

The GFS takes the pouch still over Africa and forms it down the road in the Caribbean(and winds up in the Gulf at 384 hours), but obviously it's pure fantasy land.

Ah... Gotcha. Thanks for the explanation. If I see a unicorn in my backyard, I will begin to worry.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Snow is starting to fly in siberia!

[Ntxw]

Yeah I take any long range hurricane threat from the GFS with a grain of salt. Especially late Sept into October. Troughs are normally coming through periodically so the western gulf usually is shut down by the turn of the Calendar. The lone exception (extreme outlier) of course was Jerry in 1989. Even then it was recurving and only extreme southeastern Texas saw effects. If anything I'd watch west coast of Mexico, that's where October hits tends to come from to effect us weather wise.

On the bright side all guidance now feature fall early next week , they've actually looked better as the time frame has moved up. I think this can partially be credited on the recurve of Malakas just a few days ago. Typhoon rule





Euro kind of keeps the trough slow moving, so most of next week will be quite beautiful! Also with such slow moving vortmax someone will get lots of rain.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just saw the euro 12z, we would love to have an ULL drop down like this in the winter. Large drop in heights with this low.

[Brent]

The Euro still is much wetter than the gfs over 6 inches of rain at DFW mostly Sunday. Just a few more days guys..

[dhweather]

So... not taking the Cat 5 seriously, but what's up with that? Is there something predicted to be brewing during that time?

The GFS takes the pouch still over Africa and forms it down the road in the Caribbean(and winds up in the Gulf at 384 hours), but obviously it's pure fantasy land.

Ah... Gotcha. Thanks for the explanation. If I see a unicorn in my backyard, I will begin to worry.

And realistically, even if that scenario actually played out, you have a strong trough moving in from the west, so the "cat 5" would be pushed off northeast. But the most important thing to remember is THAT's 384 hours out, NO MODEL IS ACCURATE 384 HOURS OUT. That's 16 days. If it was 6 days, that's a different story.

[weatherdude1108]

Autumn is coming, in due time!


000
FXUS64 KEWX 211959
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
259 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Tuesday)...
A significant change in the pattern looks to ensue beginning
Saturday as high pressure moves off to the east in response to a
deep H5 low over the Rockies pushing east into the Central Plains.
While the center of the upper low will be positioned around the
Montana and N/S Dakota border, the low axis will span all the way
down to Mexico as the low continues to deepen. A rather dynamic
upper level and mid level pattern will begin to take shape Sunday
and push what could be our first strong cold front through the
area by Monday morning.

There are still quite a few discrepancies in synoptic evolution
and cold front translation at this time for Sunday into Monday
morning. The GFS solution develops a strong mid level circulation
associated with the main upper low in the north-central US and
decouples the re-enforcing flow of the front around the KS/OK
border, stalling the cold front along the northern periphery of
the CWA. However, the ECMWF develops a more north-to-south
oriented upper flow pattern, in turn maintaining strong northerly
deep layer flow and pushing the front through the CWA with little
trouble. To complicate things further, other synoptic models are
picking sides, with DGEX favoring the GFS solution and the
Canadian joining the ECMWF camp.

While synoptic evolution discrepancies exist, coincidentally the
timing of this significant feature appears to be on track with a
Monday morning entry into the northern CWA. QPF wise, about 1-2
inches of rain is generally the consensus for the 48 hour period
from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. This will largely
depend on the speed of the front and H5 low translation though, so
did not want to spend too much time on those details as of yet, as
they would have been in vain until model consensus is reached. But
regardless, heavy rainfall potential certainly looks valid for the
time period of Sunday night through Monday morning...perhaps into
the day Monday.

After the passage of this next system, long term guidance is
suggesting mid week temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s for
highs with lows possibly reaching the 50s. Hopefully marking the
first autumn-like temperatures for South Central Texas.

&&

[Ntxw]

FW is caving to the guidance . 70s for highs and low 60s/50s for lows next Monday and Tuesday. Plenty of rain.

Fall is coming

[gpsnowman]

Thank heavens for all this good news. A total 180 from yesterday. I was entering a bout of severe weather depression until reading all the posts from today. Happy times ahead.

[Ntxw]

Thank heavens for all this good news. A total 180 from yesterday. I was entering a bout of severe weather depression until reading all the posts from today. Happy times ahead.

This is real! And on top of that someone could see 4-6" of rain...94E and 95E have been tagged in the EPAC. The trough will likely draw up higher level moisture in what could be a hurricane from 94E. There is a lot of convection below us south of Mexico.



The ULL system responsible is currently in the Pacific NW (Washington/Oregon coast) it will carve out a huge upper level trough in the plains and draw up lots of EPAC moisture

[Brent]

I can almost feel the 50s already...