Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[gatorcane]

[Alyono]

solid hurricane for Barbados at 138 hours

[blp]

Yes, this is a very different run on both fronts. The storm and the position of the low. The low is more pronounced and in a better position to move it more poleward.

[WeatherEmperor]

solid hurricane for Barbados at 138 hours

Sorry but I am just not buying it. The way the Atlantic has been so hostile so much of the season, I find it hard to believe that all of a sudden it will be favorable enough to support a Hurricane. I will believe it when I see it.....

[Alyono]

looks like a very strong hurricane for St Lucia and Martinique

[blp]

There is a another low also now at 40n 80w rolling off the east coast that is more pronounced as before.

[gatorcane]

Yikes

[gatorcane]

I can't believe the size of those two lows for this time of year, not to mention they are retrograde get back westward and eroding the ridge. Looks like something you would see in December or January.

[Alyono]

massive hurricane for SW PR

[blp]

Wow another curveball by the GFS. I feel like we turned back to the clock to years ago when the GFS would swing wildly from run to run. Need to see the Euro to split the differences. Puerto Rico gets slammed. Not good.

[PTrackerLA]

Massive difference in the 500mb upper pattern just from the 06z.

[WeatherEmperor]

Massive difference in the 500mb upper pattern just from the 06z.

Exactly. It keeps changing the pattern with each run. Which is why I am not taking this run too seriously. Also, it shows this thing as a borderline Cat 3 just south of PR. I find it hard to believe that in 2016 conditions this would suddenly happen. Waiting for the Euro...

[LarryWx]

Wow another curveball by the GFS. I feel like we turned back to the clock to years ago when the GFS would swing wildly from run to run. Need to see the Euro to split the differences. Puerto Rico gets slammed. Not good.

Yep, only a 30 dm 500 mb height drop from 590 to 560 over West Virginia at hour 204!

[gatorcane]

The massive low the GFS develops over the Eastern US that just sits there for days makes no sense. Check out the CMC, does not have it at all.

[blp]

06z



12z

[PTrackerLA]

Wow another curveball by the GFS. I feel like we turned back to the clock to years ago when the GFS would swing wildly from run to run. Need to see the Euro to split the differences. Puerto Rico gets slammed. Not good.

Yep, only a 30 dm 500 mb height drop from 590 to 560 over West Virginia at hour 204!

Also note the cold front which the GFS was no longer bringing through the Gulf Coast next week fully sweeps through with Fall-like temperatures forecast once again. These are truly wild swings in the upper pattern which we'll likely continue to see for the next couple of days.

[gatorcane]

I am raising the BS flag on this GFS run as far as how it is handling the massive upper lows over the Eastern US and Central Atlantic.

[LarryWx]

Massive difference in the 500mb upper pattern just from the 06z.

Exactly. It keeps changing the pattern with each run. Which is why I am not taking this run too seriously. Also, it shows this thing as a borderline Cat 3 just south of PR. I find it hard to believe that in 2016 conditions this would suddenly happen. Waiting for the Euro...

The regular resolution shows only a cat 1 hitting PR. Maybe that is more likely? Why should the high resolution be more trusted if it doesn't seem realistic? I'm not directing this question at you. I'm wondering about high resolution runs, in general, whether they be GFS, Euro, or other. Perhaps the high resolution in these cases better reflects the worse case than the more likely case. Any thoughts from anyone about this concern?

[PTrackerLA]

Surprised there's been no NE turn yet out to 240 hours, and note the ridging building southward over the NE and the big upper low NE of Bermuda beginning to move out East. Could have an interesting end of this run, for entertainment purposes only.

[Alyono]

ukmet is developing this in 5 days