Texas Fall-2016

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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#201 Postby Houstonia » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:35 pm

Evening briefing from Jeff (Harris County Flood Control District met):

Upper level pattern will begin to amplify this weekend into early next week potentially brin[g]ing the front decent cold front of fall across TX by the early to middle part of next week.

Moisture will begin to increase tomorrow with an increase in especially coastal showers and thunderstorms…so of which may reach as far inland as I-10 during the afternoon hours. Rain chances increase even more Friday into the weekend as a deep trough approaches TX from the west and moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific stream into the region. Expect waves of showers and thunderstorms to develop near the coast and offshore and track NNW Friday and especially Saturday. Upper level trough will arrive into the state Sunday-Monday along with the slowing moving yet decent cold front. Expect some potential for heavy rainfall along and ahead of the frontal boundary for a 24-36 hours period from late Sunday into late Monday. Could see some pretty decent totals with latest WPC amounts showing 3-5 day totals of 3-4 inches over the region.

Looking well to the SSW…sure enough…there is a tropical system attempting to organize well SW of the Mexican coast and is expected to turn NNW to N and will certainly be in a position by late this weekend to supply mid and high level moisture across TX and along/ahead of the front boundary. This is a fairly routine heavy rainfall setup across SE/SC TX during the fall months when deepening fall troughs start to dig southward and capture or in some cases bring the high level moisture of eastern Pacific tropical systems into the state. This will be a factor to watch in the days ahead that could increase rainfall amounts

I am cautions this time of year to bite too hard on any actual cooling from frontal passages, but several of the global models show decent cold air advection post front and even a secondary surge of surface high pressure down the plains the middle of next week. Expect the front to cross the coast and move well into the Gulf of Mexico sometime late Monday into Tuesday. Winds will shift to the NW and increase post front and temperatures will cool into the lower 60’s for lows and lower 80’s for highs. Could go even colder for lows into the mid to upper 50’s…but don’t want to push it too hard just yet.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#202 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 21, 2016 11:47 pm

The GFS is almost too good to be true... taken verbatim most of next week would be below normal in most of the state. There's more rain later in the week from a weak low near the coast that keeps temps far below normal.

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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#203 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:05 am

Today is the official first day of fall (autumnal equinox) where our days and nights are equal like it is in mid March. Still warm for most but change is brewing in the air the days ahead.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#204 Postby gboudx » Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:35 am

Ntxw wrote:Today is the official first day of fall (autumnal equinox) where our days and nights are equal like it is in mid March. Still warm for most but change is brewing in the air the days ahead.


I hope that includes blowing and washing the ragweed away. My goodness it's been awful.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#205 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Sep 22, 2016 10:34 am

gboudx wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Today is the official first day of fall (autumnal equinox) where our days and nights are equal like it is in mid March. Still warm for most but change is brewing in the air the days ahead.


I hope that includes blowing and washing the ragweed away. My goodness it's been awful.

MY FACE HURTS!!! GO AWAY RAGWEED!!
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#206 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 22, 2016 10:45 am

I hear ya! I've been taking otc allergy meds to get ahead of it but some days were bad. The rain will lower the pollen count. Its the teaser for mountain cedar in a few nonths
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#207 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 10:53 am

It's a very sad day today as I say "goodbye" to summer. Fortunately, summer appears to be hanging around for a while longer. I notice the overnight run of the ECMWF keeps next week's front north of Houston. GFS still brings it through, though. I picked November 8th as the first sub-50 degree day at IAH for the office contest. Last year IAH didn't reach 49F until November 18th. The average first 49F has been the first week of November for the past 3 years. I don't see this year being any different. Most picked the 2nd to 4th week of October.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#208 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 10:56 am

Yeah, Ragweed is in the medium count down here. A few people here at work feel miserable. Molds are also high. I'm fine so far. Got my Claritin 24-hour going. :wink:

Meanwhile, looking like a great forecast on the Autumnal Equinox!! :cheesy:

Image

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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#209 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:03 am

wxman57 wrote:It's a very sad day today as I say "goodbye" to summer. Fortunately, summer appears to be hanging around for a while longer. I notice the overnight run of the ECMWF keeps next week's front north of Houston. GFS still brings it through, though. I picked November 8th as the first sub-50 degree day at IAH for the office contest. Last year IAH didn't reach 49F until November 18th. The average first 49F has been the first week of November for the past 3 years. I don't see this year being any different. Most picked the 2nd to 4th week of October.



It is over. The end is near. Fall is coming yea!
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#210 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:29 am

What a beautiful sight

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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#211 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:43 am

Yes sir!! :cold: :uarrow:
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#212 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:49 am

I think the southern half of the state will see the most rain as they will be in the warmer, more moist air longer. Northern half will be in the cooler, more stable sooner. The area inbetween where it is cloudy and wet will likely be around 60-65 most of the day Monday.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#213 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:51 am

Sign me up lol temperatures at mid afternoon Monday :froze:

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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#214 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Sep 22, 2016 12:54 pm

Man what a difference a year makes, last year my allergies were great, the best they have ever been late Summer and fall. This year is a whole different story, we've been having moderate ragweed and high amounts of mold here both of which I'm really sensitive to. It's been taking a toll on my body. Acuweather says I won't be seeing some relief till Monday. :roll:
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#215 Postby gboudx » Thu Sep 22, 2016 1:33 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:Yeah, Ragweed is in the medium count down here. A few people here at work feel miserable. Molds are also high. I


Ragweed has been either High or Very High up here. It's miserable. I'm doing allergy immunotherapy and I hope it works for next year's ragweed season. I'm not far enough into the treatment for this year.

From DFW NWS, get your yardwork done by Saturday.

The main story continues to be the
prospect for widespread rain chances this weekend and,
potentially, lingering through a good chunk of next week. More on
this after receipt of the 12Z model suite.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#216 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 2:15 pm

The WPC mentions a heavy rainfall threat for Texas in their noon (11am CST) discussion.


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1204 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

VALID 12Z SUN SEP 25 2016 - 12Z THU SEP 29 2016

...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST THEREAFTER...



...OVERVIEW...

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE MORE UNCERTAIN THE
USUAL. THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN MAY TURN INTO BLOCKED/STUCK FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AFTER THIS...THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRONG DISAGREEMENT. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WOULD MEAN A
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS AND BECOMING EITHER
STATIONARY OR QUASI-STATIONARY BY MID-WEEK ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AFTER THAT...ITS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THAT FRONT EVEN MAKES IT
TO THE EAST COAST. OUT WEST...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


...GUIDANCE EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES...

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CORE OF LOWER HEIGHTS
WILL EXTEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD TO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...INCLUDING AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER. INCLUDING THE PRESENT MODEL RUNS...THIS IS
THE POINT AT WHICH THE MODEL AGREEMENT DISINTEGRATES AND SOLUTIONS
ARE LITERALLY ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM LATE DAY 4 THROUGH DAY 7.

BUT LOOKING BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD (DAY 9 AND 10)...THERE
IS REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO ITS OUR FORECAST TIME WHICH
PRESENTS A TRANSITION PERIOD AND A HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS.

WE CONTINUE TO BE RELUCTANT TO BITE ONTO ANY ONE SOLUTION SINCE
THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN SO
DIFFERENT BETWEEN EVEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES.
THE FOCUS STILL SEEMS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM (NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES) BUT THE IDEA OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM (FOUR CORNERS
REGION) CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS
RELATIVELY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND A MORE BLOCKY PATTERN. YESTERDAYS
00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AGREES WITH THIS AS
WELL...BUT TODAYS 00Z RUN PICKED BACK UP ON THE FOUR CORNERS
LOW...WHICH WOULD AGREE WITH THE LATEST UKMET AND CANADIAN
DETERMINISTIC RUNS. AS FAR AS THE ENSEMBLES...RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY BEYOND DAY 4 IS NOT GREAT...BUT THE LATEST RUNS SUPPORT
A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM LOW AND ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. FOR
THIS REASON...DECIDED TO NOT STRAY FAR FROM WPC CONTINUITY. DAYS 3
AND 4 INCLUDE AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/NAEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF. AFTER THAT...IT WAS AN EQUAL BLEND OF
THE 00Z NAEFS/ECMEAN. THIS BLEND SUPPORTS A SLOWLY MOVING FRONT
FROM THE PLAINS ON DAY 3 TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAY 7.

TO THE WEST, ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE PAC NW
BY TUESDAY, BRINGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
DIVIDE/ID/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY WED/THU. FARTHER SOUTH, THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AN AREA OFF CENTRAL MEXICO
FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY LURK OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK.



...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE ORIENTATION/EVOLUTION OF THE FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY, THE LONGWAVE SETUP REMAINS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT
WHICH STILL SUPPORTS A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO TEXAS AND PERHAPS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STALLED FRONT WOULD
EXACERBATE THE EFFECT.
AFTER TUESDAY, UPPER SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD EASE EITHER IF THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW FILLS OR MOVES
EAST OR IF IT MEANDERS IN PLACE AS A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM DUE
TO THE FACT THAT HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF
NEXT WEEK PER THE ENSEMBLES.


SANTORELLI/FRACASSO
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#217 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Sep 22, 2016 2:59 pm

So we are at least in for alot of rain on the Euro right? No fron tbut lots of rain? You guys are right, so good to clear out pollen this time of year.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#218 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 3:03 pm

From HGX...



000
FXUS64 KHGX 221711
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.AVIATION...
The compact disturbance near the middle Texas coast will continue
to draw deeper moisture into SE TX. Occasional showers will
continue to develop near KLBX for much of the afternoon and
gradually expand inland with additional heating. Should get a
respite from precip this evening but showers expected to redevelop
along the coast after 06z so added VCSH for KLBX and KGLS at 06z
and further inland between 09-10z. RAP looks overdone and leaned
toward a GFS/TT/SREF blend for timing/coverage. Soundings don`t
look terribly favorable for thunder so kept things VCSH for now.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
No significant chances to the forecast this morning...mainly
matched grids with short term trends/obs. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 91 76 90 / 20 10 40 20 50
Houston (IAH) 92 77 90 77 89 / 20 10 40 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 87 81 87 / 20 20 30 20 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...43



XUS64 KHGX 220950
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
450 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered showers (with isolated thunderstorms) will con-
tinue to develop over the coastal waters this morning (with some
of this activity holding together enough to affect coastal zones
through at least mid morning). The trends this morning appear to
reaffirm the progs of the much deeper moisture just offshore and
its subsequent move onshore these next few days as SE winds dev-
elop/strengthen. All of this occurring as the upper ridge begins
to weaken/move off to the east and the next upper trof begins to
deepen and amplify as it moves off the Rockies. Models still not
in super good agreement with all the different players coming up
but the overall trends have been with a more progressive pattern
over the weekend which does result in the passage of a real-life
cold front into SE TX by Mon. ECMWF which has been the more con-
sistent one did appear to reverse that trend with the 00z run as
the GFS came up with a more erratic/aggressive solution. With no
real consensus with models after Mon...will likely keep a slight
lean on grids toward the ECMWF as this latest GFS run seems very
fantastic. (i.e. The development of a surface low in the western
Gulf along the stalled frontal boundary next week is not the fav-
ored solution at this time tbh.)

Elevated POPs the next couple of days should be mainly scattered
in nature...with most of the activity likely along/near the sea-
breeze/other meso boundaries. However we will have to keep close
tabs with precip Sun night into Mon. Very high PWs (2-2.3") will
be pooling along/ahead of the cold front as it moves into the FA
at this time. This could produce some locally heavy rains during
this time frame. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Interesting vortex feature in the Gulf south of Matagorda Bay. Winds
15-25kt with much higher gust in the SW waters this morning. Other
than the NMM being the only one to really pick up on this compact
low pressure system - short term guidance not much help. This low
should track northwest and will likely keep moderate winds in place
over the western waters. Have hoisted a SCA and SCEC for our western
Gulf waters this morning. Platform (elevated sensor) west of our
waters reported wind gusts of 55 mph. By late morning expect this
low to have moved onshore and to quit intensifying. Southeasterly
flow should then prevail today and tonight with steady moistening
and will probably see more scattered showers develop. Gradient does
tighten up this weekend and might see SCEC conditions during the
overnight hours mainly well offshore. Models continue to waffle on
the frontal solution - GFS pushes a moderate cold front off the
coast Monday afternoon with cyclogenesis along the stalled front
Tuesday and a very tight gradient across the Upper Texas Coastal
Waters...while ECMWF slows the front near the coast Tuesday morning
with it meandering along the coast minus the cyclogenesis and hence
lighter winds more east and southeasterly. Have favored the ECMWF
with a slight bump up in windspeeds.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR at 09z across the area. Fog hasn`t developed yet with the dry
air in place but T/TD spreads are narrowing and may yet see some
patchy fog develop. Will trended toward MIFG for LBX/SGR/CXO.
Will also be watching for the onset of SHRA for GLS/LBX/HOU to be
earlier with leading edge of moisture associated with the compact
low south of Matagorda. Plan to keep VCSH as the main threat today
but will keep a weary eye on the low. If it slows or drifts more
toward the north then may need to ramp up threat for rain near
LBX/GLS. Fog should return tonight with an afternoon of return flow.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 75 91 76 90 / 10 10 40 20 50
Houston (IAH) 91 77 90 77 89 / 20 10 40 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 87 81 87 / 20 20 30 20 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 AM CDT this morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#219 Postby dhweather » Thu Sep 22, 2016 3:20 pm

Image

So much for our Cat 5 in the Gulf. :lol:

What a difference a day makes, particularly in extended model output.
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Re: Texas Fall-2016

#220 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2016 3:41 pm

FWD's afternoon discussion highlights:

The forecast from Sunday and beyond remains in a state of flux,
with considerable uncertainties regarding the pertinent large-
scale features. That said, recent runs of ensemble systems from
the NAEFS (a combination of the GEFS and Canadian ensembles) to
the EPS (ECMWF ensemble) seem to be locking onto a scenario in
which a low cuts off from the mean flow and hangs back across the
Desert Southwest/northern Mexico as the main trough continues
east across the Upper Midwest. Given enough support from the
ensemble systems, we`ve started to trend the forecast gradually
towards the Euro`s cutoff solution in this afternoon`s forecast
package.
As a result, the highest PoPs are painted during the
Sunday through Monday period, coincident with the arrival of a
surface cold front. I`ve then continued at least low-end chance
PoPs now through Tuesday as the frontal boundary may linger across
our CWA. If trends continue, these chances may need to be raised
in subsequent forecasts.

While we`re not prepared to bite off wholesale on the ECMWF
solution at this point, the potential exists for a fairly drawn-
out episode of wet weather across the region into next week. With
PWAT values approaching +2 SD and individual cell motions largely
paralleling the surface front, flooding--at least on a localized
basis--will be a concern from Sunday into Monday, and potentially
lingering through Wednesday. Along with the rain, much cooler
temperatures look to arrive this weekend and next week.
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