2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

Well that will wake some people up. I think we need to see what the good Ole Euro has to say. My guess is not much on this next run. The Euro is slower to pick this up.

FWIW the CMC shows it but further north approaching the islands as a Depression possibly but looks like an OTS.

Yeah being hit by a significant tropical cyclone @384hrs. on the GFS is a waker-upper. I think that's where I would like to be this far out.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has the low latitude runner but this time goes to Central-America.

[blp]

The Euro and UKmet starting to pickup on this. The Euro is further North and weaker. The UK met just coming into view east of the islands.

[gatorcane]

Strong signal from GFS ensembles a week out

[cycloneye]

Even HWRF run for Karl has it.

[Hurricaneman]

These model runs are going to change many times before the final solution

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[cycloneye]

Note: Models are hinting at something developing in the MDR / Caribbean but until a pouch is up (Not yet) or NHC begins to mention it in the TWO,we stick here for now.

[cycloneye]

Note: A thread has been made for wave as is now a pouch so you can post the model runs there.

Pouch 39L thread

[PTrackerLA]

Not a single post on the gulf low the 06z GFS spins up in the 5-7 day time frame.

[Hurricaneman]

could be a subtropical mess like lee in 2011

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Alyono]

could be a subtropical mess like lee in 2011

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

looks more like a Frances

[centuryv58]

could be a subtropical mess like lee in 2011

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

looks more like a Frances

Please NO! Horrible memories of her...

[Hurricaneman]

could be a subtropical mess like lee in 2011

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

looks more like a Frances

Please NO! Horrible memories of her...

Hes saying something similar to Frances 1998 where it was a slop TS into SE Texas

[centuryv58]

looks more like a Frances

Please NO! Horrible memories of her...

Hes saying something similar to Frances 1998 where it was a slop TS into SE Texas

That's better, for me anyway.

[Steve]

Not a single post on the gulf low the 06z GFS spins up in the 5-7 day time frame.

Bastardi mentioned it on the daily summary video today. He said he's been warning their clients since Monday about the front hanging up in the NW Gulf and a low trying to form. Not sure if it happens or not, and it's just a result of the pattern itself.

[Steve]

could be a subtropical mess like lee in 2011

Looks can be deceiving. I was in Pensacola and Gulf Shores for Lee. It was pretty subtropical with the rainfall and winds. JMO

[terstorm1012]

we had our worst flooding since Agnes due to Lee (2011). On the other hand, that summer was very wet. It's been bone dry this summer.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/779052320743124992




We'll have to watch P40L as well.

[Ptarmigan]

Please NO! Horrible memories of her...

Hes saying something similar to Frances 1998 where it was a slop TS into SE Texas

That's better, for me anyway.

Tropical Storm Frances was a very large tropical storm. It was monsoon in origin.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL061998_Frances.pdf

[HurricaneFan]

What are the models predicting in terms of Track and Intensity for the Tropical Wave behind 97L?(Mostly between 35W and 40W)