Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Blown Away]

Here we go!!

[abajan]

solid hurricane for Barbados at 138 hours

Hopefully not, but we sure could use a storm, just for the rain. The island hasn't had much of it for several months and some people haven't had running water for months.

[blp]

More ridging on the Euro so far than the 00z. This one is coming West.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF starts to spin up a low-level vort just east of the Southern Lesser Antilles at 144 hours, obviously much weaker than the GFS. Also has a monster 500mb ridge sitting north of the eastern Caribbean so doubt it could recurve in the Eastern Caribbean even if it were a stronger system

[wxman57]

I think it's likely that the disturbance will at least bring some squalls to the islands of the eastern Caribbean around next Wednesday. Beyond then is pure speculation. I'd give it at least a 40% shot at developing to a TD or TS in the 5-7 day time frame. Given the hostile environment across the Tropical Atlantic this season, I don't "buy" the GFS intensity solution. This one is definitely one to watch as far as a possible west Caribbean and/or Gulf threat in 10-12 days or a possible Bahamas-East U.S. Coast threat in the same time period.

[gatorcane]

168 hours getting more organized and just north of South America, big ridge to the north:

[Hurricaneman]

The lows on the GFS are stronger while the low is weaker on the Euro and stretched out making for more ridging north of 39L

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on how hostile the basin has been this year I am leaning more towards the slower developing Euro solution. I think this becomes a player in the Caribbean in 7 to 8 days. I don't buy the strength on the GFS or the huge Upper Lows it showed on 12z.

[Hurricaneman]

also the pattern the Euro is now showing has an escape route but unfortunately the route would be through the Yucatan channel or western Cuba looking at the 500MB steering

[abajan]

Moving at the 20 to 25 mph expected, I doubt it will develop into anything more than a weak and disorganized storm by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles, especially with how hostile the Atlantic has been this year. Of course, I'll still keep an eye on it.

[SouthFLTropics]

192 hours, just off the north coast of SA...Big trough across the US Eastern Seaboard. Should start to pull up to the north 200 hours plus.

[gatorcane]

1004mb TS at 192 hours along South American coast

[abajan]

1004mb TS at 192 hours along South American coast

http://s9.postimg.org/7hkn2hd7j/ecmwf_z ... _atl_9.png

I hope folks in the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao) are paying attention.

[blp]

I expect this to lift and and head NW on the next images. It looks like the ridge is weakening.

Euro looks like a real solution. No dual bowling ball lows just a nice trough exiting the East Coast which is what you expect.

[stormlover2013]

nah I don't think it will go north to much

[gatorcane]

Slowing down and even stronger, down to 1001mb

[blp]

Slowing down and even stronger, down to 1001mb

[]http://s22.postimg.org/lqxta7thd/ecmwf_z500a_Norm_atl_10.png[/img]

I think it should start to lift on the next image. Or maybe it is so far south the weakness will not be felt.

[gatorcane]

Long-range GFS ensembles are generally much further west than the GFS operational

[gatorcane]

Euro run ends with a strengthening 987mb hurricane moving WNW, weakness overn the NW Caribbean/Gulf/Florida:

[Hurricaneman]

Slowing down and even stronger, down to 1001mb

[]http://s22.postimg.org/lqxta7thd/ecmwf_z500a_Norm_atl_10.png[/img]

I think it should start to lift on the next image. Or maybe it is so far south the weakness will not be felt.

It lifts, and both the Euro and GFS have a hurricane so we may have a hurricane to contend with sometime next weekend and the steering on the Euro would be a big threat to the Northern GOM especially the eastern GOM

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.