Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Blown Away]

00z Euro From Last Night For Comparison... 12z Lifting North...

[blp]

12z Euro ends in a dangerous spot with the steering breaking down in the heart of the prime zone for THCP.

[stormlover2013]

lets see if it can even develop first

[Hurricaneman]

lets see if it can even develop first

thats the first step but one thing I'm looking at is the wave seems rather robust coming off of Africa right now but may have a little trouble initially because of being part of the ITCZ

[OntarioEggplant]

It's definitely starting to turn NW on the 240 hr frame of the Euro.

Intriguing.

[stormlover2013]

more wnw than nw

[PTrackerLA]

Just looked at the 500mb vorticity loop on Weatherbell there's a definite NW motion at the very end (234-240 hours.)

[stormlover2013]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

[Alyono]

Well the long-range GFS is showing some pretty wild swings. What is more certain is that it looks like we may see an area of low pressure or possibly a cyclone approaching the southern Lesser Antilles a week from now. The GFS is already backing off on the giant Central Atlantic low that would recurve the cyclone in the Eastern Caribbean. By the way here is the 00z UKMET:

http://s15.postimg.org/nurmef9jv/ukm2_2 ... _gentr.png

what's the addy for this again?

[cajungal]

So now something gulf coast may have to watch. Interesting how long the GFS has been trying to develop this.

[PTrackerLA]

12z UKMET



Alyono: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[blp]

12z UKMET

[]http://i.imgur.com/Bv9wcqs.png[/img]

Alyono: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Yeah the UKmet likes it very much and has the ridge on top. Does not look like a re-curve out. I think we are getting into the believable time frame on these models.

[gatorcane]

12z UKMET

[]http://i.imgur.com/Bv9wcqs.png[/img]

Alyono: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Yeah the UKmet likes it very much and has the ridge on top. Does not look like a re-curve out. I think we are getting into the believable time frame on these models.

Looking at the image above, the UKMET has no sign of the mega Central Atlantic low the GFS has been advertising which helps turn the cyclone NW in the Eastern Caribbean on the last few GFS runs.

[Emmett_Brown]

If we do get a decent sized storm passing S of FL through the Caribbean, a pleasant side affect that often happens is the sunny breezy days caused by the gradient with the high to the north. Some of the nicest weather I have ever experienced in late summer in FL is when there is a big cane passing south of us.

[Hurricaneman]

If we do get a decent sized storm passing S of FL through the Caribbean, a pleasant side affect that often happens is the sunny breezy days caused by the gradient with the high to the north. Some of the nicest weather I have ever experienced in late summer in FL is when there is a big cane passing south of us.

Just as long as it doesn't come to Florida

[Blown Away]

If we do get a decent sized storm passing S of FL through the Caribbean, a pleasant side affect that often happens is the sunny breezy days caused by the gradient with the high to the north. Some of the nicest weather I have ever experienced in late summer in FL is when there is a big cane passing south of us.

Yep, but any storm moving @WNW into the NW Caribbean area in October has a high chance of getting booted back to the NE between Pensacola and E Cuba...

[cajungal]

Hurricane Hilda was a very intense hurricane that hit Louisiana on Oct 3rd 1964. Spawned a tornado that knocked over a water tower in Larose killing 22 people. So Louisiana still not out of the woods yet.

[Hammy]

Euro showing something in the Caribbean for the first time since Earl--and doesn't it tend to be more conservative with development in relation to what happens with regards to the MDR?

[sma10]

This may end up being relevant to pouch 39L, which the 12Z GFS has forming on 9/27. No TC on record that formed east of 55W in the MDR after 9/25 ever hit the CONUS! I was surprised when I discovered that by looking year by year. However, 5 that had a genesis in the 56-62W corridor of the MDR did hit, including Hazel of 1954:

- Hazel of 1954: formed at 59W on 10/5
- #5 of 1897: formed at 62W on 10/9
- #13 of 1887: formed at 60W on 10/9
- #6 of 1879: formed at 56W on 10/9
- #5 of 1873: formed at 62W on 9/26

Great stuff Larry!
How funny that late-Sept/Oct CONUS hits from eastward developing TC's is unheard of today ... but was a relatively common occurrence during The Gilded Age!

[USTropics]

While the GFS 12z operational run has a recurve, their is equal support from the ensembles of a track similar to the ECMWF or UKMET: