Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Hammy]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/778966777132744704

Would this by chance be due to the lingering Nino effects in the tropical E Pacific?

[Steve]

Huge upper trough is going to bring down cooler continental air across central North America next week. I think that will likely begin the closing window for the western gulf for hits. The shift will gradually move eastward with time along with climo with fronts and stronger troughs. I think focus needs to shift from African waves as those become more and more likely to re-curve as the northern hemisphere is transitioning into the fall pattern. The more likely area to watch is the Caribbean particularly western Caribbean. Re-curves here hit the US if anything forms.

That's usually the way things would go. But I wouldn't count on it 100% yet in 2016. The front initially will get hung up before advancing Eastward. But it's not the beginning of a parade of additional, reinforcing fronts. Behind it is perhaps the biggest high to come off the US Coast yet this Summer/Fall. It's one thing if it is there for a day or two and moves out followed by another front. But that doesn't look to happen just yet. I'm not saying the Western Gulf will be hit by a system originating in the Central or Eastern Atlantic by any means. But at the same time, this isn't really fall moving in for good either. So in my mind Texas and Mexico aren't out of the woods yet as they might otherwise normally be the later we get through September.

[Ntxw]

One can never be 100% certain in weather, but the statistical odds highly do not favor a wgom hit. If the BOC was more active this year then I would agree the possibility is higher but it hasn't. So aside from out of caution, there is no reliable data to raise the odds. A Carib (most likely) system would threaten moreso Fla and the eastern half of the gulf. Thus their climo high for hits in Oct.

[Steve]

One can never be 100% certain in weather, but the statistical odds highly do not favor a wgom hit. If the BOC was more active this year then I would agree the possibility is higher but it hasn't. So aside from out of caution, there is no reliable data to raise the odds. A Carib (most likely) system would threaten moreso Fla and the eastern half of the gulf. Thus their climo high for hits in Oct.

Right. We're usually out the woods for the Atlantic Origin and/or Cape Verde systems a couple of weeks after Texas though there is the occasional storm coming up from the BOC (e.g. Matthew late October 2004), or Homebrew/Hybrid like Tropical Storm Juan in 1985 (late October Hurricane 1985) or maybe Rita (3rd week of September or so) coming from the SE though that was a once in a very long time anomaly in my opinion.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/779014884063268864




I backed up the image just in case the tweet should ever be removed.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/779042890378977280

[Steve]

Hey nwtx,

Not to jump any guns or make any assumptions, because i try to avoid that. But the main Globals have an interesting solution 12-14 days out like we were talking about earlier. I don't buy it at this point as I'm sure you won't either, but still. There is at least a small chance for a new precedent. I don't know.

[Ntxw]

Hey nwtx,

Not to jump any guns or make any assumptions, because i try to avoid that. But the main Globals have an interesting solution 12-14 days out like we were talking about earlier. I don't buy it at this point as I'm sure you won't either, but still. There is at least a small chance for a new precedent. I don't know.

I see that also. I'm not too bold on any particular run of any models especially beyond 200 hours but it does emphasize what we should be looking at is the Caribbean. Whether or not the storm materializes is not too important this far out, but that conditions down there could be conducive. Whether there is a storm or not, this time of year slowly transitions to where we need to monitor there more than out in the open Atlantic MDR.

[Steve]

I'm thinking we are in a fairly high impact year even though not all systems have been extreme in any or all areas. I mentioned a while back that it wouldn't surprise me if we hit the P storm (16 NS) with an outside chance of more. Per NHC we are at around a 90% shot of Matthew. That's #13. It's been seeming like the Atlantic was due for a 3 storm pulse or so beyond whatever Karl did. Pressures look to possibly lower in the E ATL, so if we can continue a late African wave season, this could be the beginning of a 2-3 storm pulse that could bring the Atlantic up to 14 or 15 named storms. You have to figure that there will be at least one late season system after that. With a CCKW (if I got that right) moving in and MJO being favorable as it moves across, I'll concede right now that my guess of 14NS was low. If the CFSV2 continues to show a warm October and maybe even later, there is literally no way we aren't getting at least a few more named storms. Whether we get to 15? 16? 17? 18? 19? ? ? cant be known. I'd bet the house on at least 15.

[chaser1]

I'm thinking we are in a fairly high impact year even though not all systems have been extreme in any or all areas. I mentioned a while back that it wouldn't surprise me if we hit the P storm (16 NS) with an outside chance of more. Per NHC we are at around a 90% shot of Matthew. That's #13. It's been seeming like the Atlantic was due for a 3 storm pulse or so beyond whatever Karl did. Pressures look to possibly lower in the E ATL, so if we can continue a late African wave season, this could be the beginning of a 2-3 storm pulse that could bring the Atlantic up to 14 or 15 named storms. You have to figure that there will be at least one late season system after that. With a CCKW (if I got that right) moving in and MJO being favorable as it moves across, I'll concede right now that my guess of 14NS was low. If the CFSV2 continues to show a warm October and maybe even later, there is literally no way we aren't getting at least a few more named storms. Whether we get to 15? 16? 17? 18? 19? ? ? cant be known. I'd bet the house on at least 15.

I generally agree with your thoughts Steve. Nice wave coming off Africa as we speak too. I'd guess on a 40/60 chance that we'll see one more E. Atlantic system to pop up but I'd be surprised if that weren't simply an offering to the "N. Atlantic Hurricane Gods". As you pointed out though, this year is very much proving to be a high impact one with many tracks near or around land. Likely Matthew to be seems to fit right in step with the track pattern this year and climatology as well. Now that we've finally moved past El Nino conditions and it would seem that most of the dry sinking air has finally been dispersed, my fear is that not only will we see Matthew develop into a major hurricane, but that the W. Caribbean will again be tapped for yet another major hurricane before its all said and done. Beyond that, I'd guess there will be at least one or two systems forming either off post frontal vorticity up north and perhaps another in the Gulf. 16-17 Named Storms seems very reasonable to me right now as well. Not sure how far off my early season guess that takes me but I"m thinking I might blow off the dust on that thread and take a look. I"m pretty sure there were a sizable number of S2K members predicting in this general range. 'Course, then it'll come down to the devil in the details regarding # of Majors and # of hurricanes. I suppose if forced to guess, i'd say we'll go out with an additional 5/3/2 from here (5 named storms, 3 of which will be hurricanes, and 2 of those being major) with at least 3 of these to directly impacting land.

[abajan]

I'm thinking we are in a fairly high impact year even though not all systems have been extreme in any or all areas. I mentioned a while back that it wouldn't surprise me if we hit the P storm (16 NS) with an outside chance of more. Per NHC we are at around a 90% shot of Matthew. That's #13. It's been seeming like the Atlantic was due for a 3 storm pulse or so beyond whatever Karl did. Pressures look to possibly lower in the E ATL, so if we can continue a late African wave season, this could be the beginning of a 2-3 storm pulse that could bring the Atlantic up to 14 or 15 named storms. You have to figure that there will be at least one late season system after that. With a CCKW (if I got that right) moving in and MJO being favorable as it moves across, I'll concede right now that my guess of 14NS was low. If the CFSV2 continues to show a warm October and maybe even later, there is literally no way we aren't getting at least a few more named storms. Whether we get to 15? 16? 17? 18? 19? ? ? cant be known. I'd bet the house on at least 15.

I generally agree with your thoughts Steve. Nice wave coming off Africa as we speak too. I'd guess on a 40/60 chance that we'll see one more E. Atlantic system to pop up but I'd be surprised if that weren't simply an offering to the "N. Atlantic Hurricane Gods". As you pointed out though, this year is very much proving to be a high impact one with many tracks near or around land. Likely Matthew to be seems to fit right in step with the track pattern this year and climatology as well. Now that we've finally moved past El Nino conditions and it would seem that most of the dry sinking air has finally been dispersed, my fear is that not only will we see Matthew develop into a major hurricane, but that the W. Caribbean will again be tapped for yet another major hurricane before its all said and done. Beyond that, I'd guess there will be at least one or two systems forming either off post frontal vorticity up north and perhaps another in the Gulf. 16-17 Named Storms seems very reasonable to me right now as well. Not sure how far off my early season guess that takes me but I"m thinking I might blow off the dust on that thread and take a look. I"m pretty sure there were a sizable number of S2K members predicting in this general range. 'Course, then it'll come down to the devil in the details regarding # of Majors and # of hurricanes. I suppose if forced to guess, i'd say we'll go out with an additional 5/3/2 from here (5 named storms, 3 of which will be hurricanes, and 2 of those being major) with at least 3 of these to directly impacting land.

Speaking of waves, could the area indicated below possibly be a future invest?



It seems to have some banding on its southern side, indicative of a LOW forming. Could be just normal ITCZ activity, but I thought I would run it by you guys for an opinion.

[Steve]

Thanks chaser. It's mutual admiration society, because I always read your stuff too and usually agree with it. You think 2 more majors huh? I'm not sure and don't remember what I ended up guessing H or IH (probably 7 and 2 or 8 and 2). But assuming Matthew can hit Cat 3 (and it easily could do so whether it is a Gulf or West Atlantic threat), that would leave only one more we'd have to have. I think the Caribbean, Gulf and West Atlantic can probably account for another major. I wouldn't (don't think I did) have guessed 3 IH's this year, but you could be on it and probably are.
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abajan,

I don't know. I was looking at the east Atlantic satellite earlier today, and it sure seemed like an area that you'd want to look at later. With the coming Kelvin Wave and propagating MJO in the general area of the Atlantic and crossing west to east, it could be a candidate for intensification. I don't really know. But there looks like a little more energy behind it, so there may yet be a shot at another purely tropical system or two. Y'all take care over the next few days man.

[chaser1]

Back atcha' Steve . Oh, and stay safe as well... this storm might have some other piece of Americana in its sights lol!

[chaser1]

I'm thinking we are in a fairly high impact year even though not all systems have been extreme in any or all areas. I mentioned a while back that it wouldn't surprise me if we hit the P storm (16 NS) with an outside chance of more.

Speaking of waves, could the area indicated below possibly be a future invest?



It seems to have some banding on its southern side, indicative of a LOW forming. Could be just normal ITCZ activity, but I thought I would run it by you guys for an opinion.

Abajan,

At first I thought you were kidding and talking about 97L! Looking at yours and Steve's recent posts, I'm having to squint while looking at "that large blob" and trying to figure what longitude that anything that impressive could have been at lol!

Now that I'm realizing that you're referring to that wave out around 45W, I was frankly surprised that it had expanded and taken on as round a shape as it has. Hmmm, I'm about to get home but will take a closer look at this for sure. By the way... this isn't an invest? Seriously?

[chaser1]

Abajan, I agree that this looks like a potentially formidable tropical wave, and in fact saw that a Pouch was designated for it. Based on that, I've started up a new thread within the Tropics section, to follow this feature.

[FireRat]

We got Matthew and September isn't over just yet, wow! We are almost on par with 2010 in terms of names up to this point, and that year had 19 named storms. 1995 also had the M storm in September I believe, didn't see the O until early Oct. and 19 storms then too. And 2012 had its M storm in Sept before the big lull until October...19 names then too...hmm

Not crazy at all we may approach 19 names again this year, would take maybe 4 October storms and 2 November ones, we're a bit overdue for a November system or two. Could we get to Tobias??? Looks like we still have a somewhat active wave train in Africa, those waves will make it to the Carib later, and one of those may tap into the western Carib bathtub sooner or later. I think we are going to see a very interesting end season y'all.

Just my 2 cents

[tolakram]

I like this stat better since I consider Ike a major, regardless of wind speed being a tad too slow.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/781822653543821312




0 Cat. 2-5 hurricanes have made U.S. landfall in September since Ike in 2008 - the longest Sept. Cat. 2-5 drought since 1884-1892.

[FireRat]

this might be the longest Cat 2-5 drought for the US in recorded history, because it seems he forgot about the 1886 Indianola Hurricane (High end Cat 4).

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: this might be the longest Cat 2-5 drought for the US in recorded history, because it seems he forgot about the 1886 Indianola Hurricane (High end Cat 4).

and Arthur in 2014

[1900hurricane]

The important phrase in the Tweet is "in September." Indianola '86 was an August storm.