Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[tarheelprogrammer]

This system could end up being a big threat to some land areas including the US coastline. Depending on the strength of the high it could possibly do one of three things: Recurve over PR and OTS. Head into the Gulf of Mexico as a powerful hurricane. Lastly it could get pulled north over PR but then head west/wnw again and strike the Southeast coastline. A lot still needs to happen including genesis but this is a system that needs to be watched.

[USTropics]

The GFS has performed poorly even after 5 days with forecasts for NA (in regards to temperature, strengths of fronts/lows). I know the people over in the Texas thread on this forum have been anticipating cooler weather for the past month (per certain GFS runs), but that never materializes. Joe Bastardi has also stated the same thing numerous times on Twitter:

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/779031841995120640

[WeatherEmperor]

So the 18Z Gfs starts in 20 minutes or so. Anybody have any ideas what it will show?

[SouthFLTropics]

So the 18Z Gfs starts in 20 minutes or so. Anybody have any ideas what it will show?

I'll place my wager...develop in the East Caribbean, pulled north over PR or DR, shoved west into Bahamas and then NW then NEbrushing the Outer Banks on the way out.

[USTropics]

Almost all of the models are showing favorable conditions in the Caribbean as this wave approaches with some type of development. The CFS has consistently shown an increase in moisture and a decrease in shear throughout the Caribbean from run to run as well:

[floridasun78]

pouch 39 now on nhc map

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/779064955958095872

[USTropics]

NHC is now internally tracking this as 79L:

Code: Select all

GENESIS024, AL, L, , , , , 79, 2016, DB, O, 2016092212, 9999999999, , 024, , , , GENESIS, , AL792016

Based on past trends, we'll most likely see this designated invest 97L in the next 24-48 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

I have my eye on this one, better to be safe than sorry but which solution is right a Caribbean cruiser recurving into the GOM or or recurve into PR and out to sea, we shall see

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[NDG]

The GFS has performed poorly even after 5 days with forecasts for NA (in regards to temperature, strengths of fronts/lows). I know the people over in the Texas thread on this forum have been anticipating cooler weather for the past month (per certain GFS runs), but that never materializes. Joe Bastardi has also stated the same thing numerous times on Twitter:

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/779031841995120640

Yeap, ensembles show PNA to stay mostly negative and AO positive, not a good combination for much cooler air for the central US.

[psyclone]

Tis the season to watch. Other than agreeing that the climo curtain is closing on the western Gulf I certainly wouldn't be biting on any solution at this juncture. What's important to note is that we have a trackable disturbance that may move toward and develop in a climo favored region. that warrants the occasional check in at the very least. Other than that there's not much else to say.

[Fego]

Hi. Cycloneye asked me to inform you all that he hasn't been writing and moderating here in Storm2K because right now Puerto Rico is suffering a power outage. Yesterday, the whole island was without service. Today afternoon, only 130,000 customers have service restored; sadly, Cycloneye is not one of them

[SFLcane]

FIM on to this...

[Gustywind]

Hi. Cycloneye asked me to inform you all that he hasn't been writing and moderating here in Storm2K because right now Puerto Rico is suffering a power outage. Yesterday, the whole island was without service. Today afternoon, only 130,000 customers have service restored; sadly, Cycloneye is not one of them

Thanks Fego hope he will be back quickly .

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS coming in a little weaker so far out through 114 hours

[Medtronic15]

Hi. Cycloneye asked me to inform you all that he hasn't been writing and moderating here in Storm2K because right now Puerto Rico is suffering a power outage. Yesterday, the whole island was without service. Today afternoon, only 130,000 customers have service restored; sadly, Cycloneye is not one of them

Todo eso sin haber pasado un sistema atmosférico de envergadura! Sorry Felipe!
HuracanesPR.net

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave moving off of the west coast of Africa is expected
to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 20 to
25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions could be
conducive for some gradual development of this system early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Brennan

[LarryWx]

Almost all of the models are showing favorable conditions in the Caribbean as this wave approaches with some type of development. The CFS has consistently shown an increase in moisture and a decrease in shear throughout the Caribbean from run to run as well:

From strictly a CONUS potential threat standpoint as per climatology this late in September, I'd actually feel much safer from a potential hit if P39 were to develop into a TC well east of the Lesser Antilles as I'd see very little chance for making it all of the way across. Unfortunately, the GFS and Euro don't do that and, instead, wait til close to the Lesser Antilles or even later. That's a bit unsettling and would leave the door open for potential trouble assuming no sharp recurve out of the eastern Caribbean.

[USTropics]

18z GFS is more west this run so far in the Caribbean. Heading NW towards Hispaniola at 180 hours:

[sma10]

Obviously premature to simply dismiss the GFS, but it's representation at 180hrs just looks .... weird. Two gargantuan lows spinning at 80W and 60W. No similarity at all with EURO.